Week 3 Tiers - Saturday Update

Here is a Saturday update.

In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results are a simple series of charts that can help you decide your line up each week. 

Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for each week. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

A few Saturday afternoon comments:

Most experts aren't buying into the Darren Sproles week 1-2 outbreak, and neither do I. He's still second fiddle to LeSean McCoy, who is showing no signs of regression.  Think of Sproles' first two weeks as his absolute ceiling (similar to Antonio Gates). I find his placement in the Chris Johnson, Pierre Thomas, and Bernard Pierce range appropriate. 

Michael Crabtree seems to have separated himself out of the tier 5 pack he was in. This is probably happen in light of Vernon Davis being questionable for this week, and a few people noticing that historically Crabtree hasn't had too many problems against Patrick Peterson.

A.J. Green is now probable. On paper (due to slow updates from some experts), he shares tier 5 with Crabtree, but this is conservative. I think he'll fall in the tier 3 range around Keenan Allen and Cordarrelle Patterson by Sunday assuming he starts, possibly higher.

A few people pointed out some inconsistencies between the flex chart and the RB and WR charts.  This is nothing new -- flex rankings on fantasypros have always been an after thought for experts as they're not graded for them.  132 experts have submitted RB rankings this week, but only 104 have submitted flex rankings.  This means occasionally they won't be aligned, but for now this is still the best we have.

Good luck on Sunday, and feel free to post any last minute questions to me on twitter.