Fantasy Football Week 13 Tiers

Week 13 byes: None

Introduction


In this fantasy football model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a statistical clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up each week. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

Tier Charts

Charts are on the menu on the right.
Week 13 - QB RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST

Tips

(1) NYTimes link: [Week 13 in-depth commentary] coming soon
(2) Favor higher tier players. 
(3) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. If experts are 50/50, there's no telling.

Rest of Season

You can find rest of season charts here.
ROS: QB - RB - WR - TE - K - DST

FAQ:

(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts.  Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. Flex tiers are always one of the more debatable charts.

(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.

(3) When do you update the charts?
Every day. Check the last updated timestamp.

Fantasy Football Week 12 Tiers

Week 12 byes: Carolina, Pittsburg

Introduction


In this fantasy football model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a statistical clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up each week. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

Tier Charts

Charts are on the menu on the right.
Week 12 - QB RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST

Tips

(1) NYTimes link: [Week 12 in-depth commentary
(2) Favor higher tier players. 
(3) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. If experts are 50/50, there's no telling.


Rest of Season

You can find rest of season charts here.
ROS: QB - RB - WR - TE - K - DST

FAQ:

(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts.  Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. Flex tiers are always one of the more debatable charts.

(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.

(3) When do you update the charts?
Every day. Check the last updated timestamp.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Trade Value Chart

Here's my weekly trade value chart. Values are calculated from select rest of season data from Fantasypros.com, and roughly represent value based on a 12 team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE league.

All leagues are different. I recommend adjusting them for your own league dynamics and settings -- add X points to quarterbacks if quarterbacks are in higher demand in your league; add Y points to wide receivers if you start 3 wide receivers. Margin of debate is +/- 1.5 points, so I would consider any trade within 3 points to be fair.

This is a beta experimental chart. Formulas are still being tweaked, especially for PPR. It is extremely difficult to capture trade value across positions and for transactions involving 3 or more players. Players like Josh Gordon will have wildly different values for different teams and leagues.

Method. I start with Fantasypros rest of season rankings from highly accurate experts. Within a position, trade value is inversely proportional to average ranking. The list is then scaled based on 12 team roster depth so that borderline free agents are worth zero (since you can pick them up for free). Values are then passed through mean shifted logistic function, which gives higher value to the upper quintile. This is done to scale the values properly for  2-for-1 trades.

Week 11 Trade Values:

PlayerValuePPRPlayerValuePPR
DeMarco Murray37.634.7Keenan Allen6.44.4
Matt Forte36.734.6Bishop Sankey6.36.2
Jamaal Charles36.433.3Colin Kaepernick6.38.4
Demaryius Thomas35.535.2Steven Jackson6.35.0
Calvin Johnson34.931.9Tre Mason6.26.2
Arian Foster34.232.4Trent Richardson6.25.2
Marshawn Lynch34.028.8Matt Ryan6.18.2
Antonio Brown33.833.6Ben Tate6.05.0
Jordy Nelson33.232.4DeAndre Hopkins5.84.3
Le'Veon Bell33.132.1Delanie Walker5.69.0
Peyton Manning33.029.2Larry Donnell5.48.4
Rob Gronkowski33.030.4Darren McFadden5.34.6
Jimmy Graham31.929.8Mike Evans5.38.0
Julio Jones30.828.2Ronnie Hillman5.33.4
LeSean McCoy30.825.2Terrance West5.04.0
Dez Bryant30.529.2Dwayne Allen4.96.5
Eddie Lacy30.426.1Rueben Randle4.63.7
Julius Thomas29.828.4Larry Fitzgerald4.53.8
Andrew Luck29.626.4Pierre Garcon4.54.6
Andre Ellington29.527.7Darren Sproles4.36.6
Aaron Rodgers28.425.6Martavis Bryant4.33.0
Randall Cobb27.726.4Jordan Reed4.16.8
Giovani Bernard27.025.2Jay Cutler4.06.1
Emmanuel Sanders25.927.3Brandon LaFell3.96.0
A.J. Green25.723.3Mohamed Sanu3.86.5
Jeremy Maclin25.525.7Adrian Peterson3.79.4
Ty Hilton25.225.7Torrey Smith3.72.9
Alfred Morris24.012.6Michael Floyd3.62.6
Brandon Marshall23.522.1Cam Newton3.55.5
Justin Forsett23.422.3Branden Oliver3.38.0
Drew Brees23.121.6C.J. Anderson3.36.0
Ahmad Bradshaw21.921.4Eric Decker3.22.5
Lamar Miller21.317.2Reggie Wayne3.25.0
Alshon Jeffery20.317.6Charles Sims3.02.3
Greg Olsen20.317.8Jordan Cameron3.04.3
Mark Ingram19.714.1Doug Martin2.92.3
Antonio Gates19.220.7Pierre Thomas2.93.5
Martellus Bennett18.517.8Terrance Williams2.92.7
Kelvin Benjamin18.319.1Ryan Tannehill2.64.5
Tom Brady17.717.7Cecil Shorts2.52.0
Rashad Jennings17.415.4Mark Sanchez2.54.4
Frank Gore17.010.8Michael Crabtree2.42.6
Sammy Watkins17.016.4Vernon Davis2.42.1
Fred Jackson16.018.8Chris Johnson2.21.7
Joique Bell15.510.8Anquan Boldin2.11.7
Shane Vereen15.517.9Marques Colston2.01.7
Mike Wallace14.711.4Matt Asiata2.01.7
Denard Robinson13.310.0Carlos Hyde1.91.7
Ryan Mathews13.210.0Eli Manning1.93.6
Josh Gordon12.711.4Knile Davis1.92.2
DeSean Jackson12.28.4Andre Williams1.71.7
Christopher Ivory11.76.2Jonathan Stewart1.71.7
Jerick McKinnon11.714.3Jordan Matthews1.61.7
Vincent Jackson11.710.3Cordarrelle Patterson1.41.7
Golden Tate11.18.3Kendall Wright1.41.7
Russell Wilson11.012.5Justin Hunter1.31.7
Roddy White10.513.8Doug Baldwin1.21.7
Matthew Stafford10.011.6Zac Stacy1.11.7
Odell Beckham Jr.9.711.7Alex Smith1.02.3
Philip Rivers9.711.4Andre Holmes1.01.7
Ben Roethlisberger9.611.3Bobby Rainey1.01.7
Brandin Cooks9.413.3James Starks0.91.7
Travis Kelce9.010.8Joe Flacco0.81.9
Reggie Bush8.58.5Malcom Floyd0.81.7
Julian Edelman8.411.6Robert Griffin III0.82.0
Steve Smith7.710.0Wes Welker0.71.7
Andre Johnson7.66.5John Brown0.71.7
Percy Harvin7.56.9Andy Dalton0.61.7
Montee Ball6.94.9Harry Douglas0.61.7
Jason Witten6.69.2Kyle Orton0.61.7
Jeremy Hill6.64.1Kyle Rudolph0.61.7
Tony Romo6.68.7Michael Vick0.61.7