Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Week 5 Tiers - Early Tuesday Waiver Edition

Week 5 byes: Miami Dolphins, Oakland Raiders

In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your line up each week. 

Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for each week. Tiers are preferred over ranks, as it allow you to see the true distance between players, which is not as linear as a ranked list suggests. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

Waiver Tips:

(1) These are early tiers for week 5 to assist you with waivers. I would NOT use this to set your line up yet -- wait for the Thursday update when more data is available. 

(2) When a player on the waiver is highly likely to start for you next week, consider using a high claim or higher bid.

FAQ:

(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts.  Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. 

(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.

(3) When do you update the charts?
The main update comes Thursday afternoon. Sometime there will be an early Tuesday version.

(4) Can you do this with Fantasypros' Rest-of-Season rankings?
This was tried last year (example), however we saw that the data seemed constantly outdated by 1 or 2 weeks. I suspect that many experts submit outdated RoS rankings.

(5) The New York Times chart says "Aug 6, 2014". Is it updated?
Yes, the date reflects when the very first chart went up for week 1.  The charts are updated weekly and often.


Standard Charts:

K link:    Standard - Kickers

Flex (only Flex25 - Flex85 are shown):


Tier 1: Frank Gore, Keenan Allen, Alfred Morris, Julius Thomas, Matt Asiata, Jeremy Maclin, Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 2: Vincent Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Steve Smith, Victor Cruz, Percy Harvin, Andre Johnson, Roddy White
Tier 3: Doug Martin, Michael Floyd, Reggie Bush
Tier 4: Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Crabtree
Tier 5: Brandin Cooks, Ahmad Bradshaw
Tier 6: Justin Forsett, Khiry Robinson, Wes Welker, Martellus Bennett, Christopher Ivory, Pierre Garcon, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ben Tate
Tier 7: Larry Donnell, Larry Fitzgerald, Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Greg Olsen, Ty Hilton, Marques Colston
Tier 8: Joique Bell, Donald Brown, Golden Tate, Delanie Walker, Reggie Wayne, Steven Jackson, Shane Vereen, Brian Quick
Tier 9: Rueben Randle, Eric Decker, Toby Gerhart, Jordan Cameron, Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson
Tier 10: Sammy Watkins, Terrance Williams, Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, Eddie Royal
Tier 11: Trent Richardson, Torrey Smith, Andrew Hawkins



PPR RB


Tier 1: DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 2: Rashad Jennings, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Giovani Bernard, Matt Forte
Tier 3: Montee Ball, Andre Ellington, Eddie Lacy
Tier 4: Matt Asiata, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Shane Vereen
Tier 5: Zac Stacy, Justin Forsett, Alfred Morris, Frank Gore
Tier 6: C.J. Spiller
Tier 7: Reggie Bush, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Khiry Robinson
Tier 8: Donald Brown, Darren Sproles, Christopher Ivory, Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate
Tier 9: Jerick McKinnon, Jeremy Hill, Joique Bell, Stevan Ridley, Steven Jackson
Tier 10: Trent Richardson, Pierre Thomas, Isaiah Crowell, Lorenzo Taliaferro, DeAngelo Williams
Tier 11: Knile Davis


PPR TE


Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Delanie Walker, Greg Olsen
Tier 2: Martellus Bennett, Jordan Cameron, Larry Donnell
Tier 3: Antonio Gates
Tier 4: Zach Ertz, Heath Miller, Niles Paul, Travis Kelce
Tier 5: Jason Witten, Jared Cook, Vernon Davis
Tier 6: Owen Daniels, Coby Fleener, Eric Ebron, Dwayne Allen, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Tier 7: Jermaine Gresham, Garrett Graham, Levine Toilolo
Tier 8: Brandon Myers, Logan Paulsen

PPR WR


Tier 1: Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson
Tier 2: Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb
Tier 3: Kelvin Benjamin, Steve Smith, Alshon Jeffery, Vincent Jackson
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Crabtree, Keenan Allen, Jeremy Maclin, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall
Tier 5: Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Johnson
Tier 6: Percy Harvin, Larry Fitzgerald, Pierre Garcon, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman
Tier 7: Cordarrelle Patterson, Sammy Watkins, Ty Hilton, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Brian Quick
Tier 8: Eric Decker, Andrew Hawkins, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson
Tier 9: Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, Markus Wheaton, Rueben Randle, Golden Tate, Torrey Smith, Terrance Williams, Kendall Wright
Tier 10: Dwayne Bowe, Anquan Boldin, Harry Douglas, John Brown
Tier 11: Cecil Shorts, Brandon LaFell, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan Matthews, Justin Hunter, Malcom Floyd, Miles Austin
Tier 12: Hakeem Nicks, Marvin Jones


PPR Flex


Tier 1: Michael Crabtree, Michael Floyd, Keenan Allen
Tier 2: Andre Ellington, Roddy White, Wes Welker, Jeremy Maclin, Eddie Lacy
Tier 3: Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, DeAndre Hopkins, Rob Gronkowski, Matt Asiata, Andre Johnson
Tier 4: Percy Harvin, Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Martin, Shane Vereen, Pierre Garcon, Brandin Cooks
Tier 5: Arian Foster, Julian Edelman, Delanie Walker
Tier 6: Justin Forsett, Cordarrelle Patterson, Greg Olsen, Sammy Watkins, Zac Stacy, Ty Hilton, Alfred Morris
Tier 7: Frank Gore, Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Brian Quick
Tier 8: Reggie Wayne, Martellus Bennett, C.J. Spiller, Larry Donnell, Jordan Cameron, Eric Decker, Eddie Royal
Tier 9: Andrew Hawkins, DeSean Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Allen Robinson
Tier 10: Markus Wheaton, Allen Hurns, Reggie Bush
Tier 11: Rueben Randle, Antonio Gates, Torrey Smith, Zach Ertz, Khiry Robinson, Golden Tate, Donald Brown
Tier 12: Kendall Wright, Terrance Williams, Heath Miller, Toby Gerhart, Darren Sproles


Half point PPR RB


Tier 1: DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch, Rashad Jennings, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Giovani Bernard, Jamaal Charles
Tier 3: Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball, Andre Ellington, Arian Foster, Matt Asiata
Tier 4: Zac Stacy, Doug Martin, Frank Gore, Alfred Morris
Tier 5: Justin Forsett, Shane Vereen, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Khiry Robinson, Fred Jackson
Tier 6: Christopher Ivory, Donald Brown, Ben Tate
Tier 7: Toby Gerhart, Stevan Ridley, Darren Sproles
Tier 8: Joique Bell, Steven Jackson, Jeremy Hill, Jerick McKinnon
Tier 9: Isaiah Crowell, Trent Richardson, Pierre Thomas, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams


Half point PPR TE

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas
Tier 2: Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker, Larry Donnell, Jordan Cameron
Tier 3: Antonio Gates, Zach Ertz, Heath Miller, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, Niles Paul, Vernon Davis
Tier 4: Dwayne Allen, Owen Daniels, Jared Cook, Coby Fleener, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Tier 5: Eric Ebron, Garrett Graham
Tier 6: Brandon Myers, Clay Harbor, Luke Willson, Jermaine Gresham


Half point PPR WR

Tier 1: Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson
Tier 2: A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb
Tier 3: Alshon Jeffery, Kelvin Benjamin, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Jeremy Maclin, Victor Cruz, Michael Crabtree, Roddy White
Tier 5: Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, DeAndre Hopkins, Wes Welker
Tier 6: Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks, Pierre Garcon, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 7: Cordarrelle Patterson, Ty Hilton, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Sammy Watkins, Brian Quick
Tier 8: Greg Jennings, Eric Decker, Eddie Royal
Tier 9: DeSean Jackson, Andrew Hawkins, Golden Tate, Rueben Randle
Tier 10: Markus Wheaton, Terrance Williams, Allen Hurns, Torrey Smith, Allen Robinson, Kendall Wright
Tier 11: Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe, John Brown, Malcom Floyd
Tier 12: Cecil Shorts, Harry Douglas, Brandon LaFell, Justin Hunter, Jordan Matthews, Mohamed Sanu, Miles Austin
Tier 13: Hakeem Nicks, Marvin Jones


Half point PPR Flex

Tier 1: Julius Thomas, Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 2: Jeremy Maclin, Michael Floyd, Arian Foster, Victor Cruz, Roddy White, Matt Asiata, Michael Crabtree, Andre Johnson
Tier 3: Percy Harvin, DeAndre Hopkins, Zac Stacy, Doug Martin, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Frank Gore
Tier 4: Julian Edelman, Alfred Morris
Tier 5: Pierre Garcon, Brandin Cooks, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 6: Justin Forsett, Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett, Cordarrelle Patterson, Shane Vereen, Delanie Walker
Tier 7: Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Ty Hilton, C.J. Spiller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Larry Donnell, Reggie Wayne, Sammy Watkins, Fred Jackson, Khiry Robinson
Tier 8: Jordan Cameron, Brian Quick, Eric Decker
Tier 9: Greg Jennings, Christopher Ivory, DeSean Jackson, Donald Brown, Golden Tate, Andrew Hawkins, Rueben Randle, Eddie Royal
Tier 10: Terrance Williams, Markus Wheaton, Antonio Gates, Toby Gerhart, Darren Sproles, Allen Hurns, Stevan Ridley, Allen Robinson, Zach Ertz, Torrey Smith

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Week 4 Tiers

Week 4 byes:
Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, St. Louis Rams, Seattle Seahawks

In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your line up each week. 

Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for each week. Tiers are preferred over ranks, as it allow you to see the true distance between players, which is not as linear as a ranked list suggests. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

Tips:

(1) Always favor higher tier players.
(2) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. 
(3) Link: Week 4 in depth commentary on tiers

Standard:


(To avoid paywall issues, right click each > open in new tab from these links above. If you see Week 3 still, try deleting your cookies or private browsing mode.)


Standard Flex (only Flex25 - Flex85 are shown):



Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster
Tier 2: Andre Johnson, Mike Wallace, Rob Gronkowski, Keenan Allen, Victor Cruz, C.J. Spiller, Cordarrelle Patterson, Stevan Ridley, Vincent Jackson
Tier 3: Brandin Cooks, DeSean Jackson, Kelvin Benjamin, Khiry Robinson, Steve Smith, Doug Martin
Tier 4: Matt Asiata, Antonio Gates, Reggie Bush, Martellus Bennett, Roddy White
Tier 5: Greg Olsen, Fred Jackson, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, Golden Tate, Shane Vereen, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 6: Sammy Watkins, Reggie Wayne, Joique Bell, Ty Hilton, Darren Sproles
Tier 7: Steven Jackson, Delanie Walker, Zach Ertz, Terrance Williams, Kendall Wright, DeAngelo Williams, Niles Paul
Tier 8: Trent Richardson, Markus Wheaton, Christopher Ivory, Anquan Boldin, Toby Gerhart, Knile Davis, Greg Jennings, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Cecil Shorts, Eric Decker
Tier 9: Torrey Smith, Larry Donnell, Rueben Randle, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, James Jones, Travis Kelce, Mike Evans, Justin Hunter


PPR RB


Tier 1: DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 2: LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy
Tier 3: Rashad Jennings, Lamar Miller, Donald Brown, Alfred Morris, Jamaal Charles
Tier 4: Shane Vereen, Darren Sproles, C.J. Spiller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Reggie Bush, Arian Foster
Tier 5: Matt Asiata
Tier 6: Frank Gore, Pierre Thomas, Doug Martin, Fred Jackson
Tier 7: Khiry Robinson, Stevan Ridley, Joique Bell
Tier 8: DeAngelo Williams, Toby Gerhart
Tier 9: Bobby Rainey, Christopher Ivory, Knile Davis, Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden, Steven Jackson
Tier 10: Bernard Pierce, Alfred Blue, Chris Johnson, Justin Forsett
Tier 11: Lorenzo Taliaferro, Roy Helu, Jacquizz Rodgers, Shonn Greene


PPR WR


Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant
Tier 2: Pierre Garcon, Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, Julian Edelman
Tier 3: Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Andre Johnson
Tier 4: Mike Wallace, Victor Cruz, Steve Smith, Brandin Cooks, Cordarrelle Patterson, Keenan Allen
Tier 5: Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Kelvin Benjamin, DeSean Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 6: Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Kendall Wright, Golden Tate
Tier 7: Sammy Watkins, Ty Hilton, Markus Wheaton
Tier 8: Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin, Terrance Williams, Cecil Shorts
Tier 9: James Jones, Jeremy Kerley, Torrey Smith, Rueben Randle, Eric Decker, Justin Hunter, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews
Tier 10: Dwayne Bowe
Tier 11: Mike Evans, Brian Hartline, Harry Douglas, Eddie Royal, Allen Hurns, Malcom Floyd
Tier 12: Steve Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Nate Washington, Riley Cooper, Kenny Stills, Davante Adams, Andre Holmes, Denarius Moore, Robert Woods
Tier 13: Devin Hester


PPR TE


Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 2: Martellus Bennett, Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker, Niles Paul
Tier 3: Larry Donnell, Antonio Gates, Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis
Tier 4: Owen Daniels, Heath Miller
Tier 5: Charles Clay, Brandon Myers, Dwayne Allen
Tier 6: Eric Ebron, Ladarius Green, Garrett Graham, Coby Fleener, Andrew Quarless
Tier 7: MarQueis Gray, Scott Chandler, Jace Amaro, Jordan Reed


PPR Flex

Tier 1: Victor Cruz, Rob Gronkowski, Steve Smith, Jamaal Charles
Tier 2: Brandin Cooks, Cordarrelle Patterson, Keenan Allen
Tier 3: Martellus Bennett, Kelvin Benjamin, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Roddy White, Shane Vereen, DeAndre Hopkins, Greg Olsen, Darren Sproles, Reggie Wayne, Arian Foster
Tier 4: Marques Colston, C.J. Spiller, Kendall Wright, Golden Tate, Ahmad Bradshaw, Reggie Bush, Delanie Walker, Sammy Watkins
Tier 5: Ty Hilton, Niles Paul, Markus Wheaton
Tier 6: Matt Asiata, Greg Jennings, Frank Gore, Pierre Thomas
Tier 7: Anquan Boldin, Terrance Williams, Fred Jackson, Doug Martin
Tier 8: Antonio Gates, Larry Donnell, Khiry Robinson, James Jones, Joique Bell, Stevan Ridley, Zach Ertz, Cecil Shorts, Jeremy Kerley
Tier 9: Torrey Smith, Rueben Randle, Travis Kelce, Justin Hunter, Allen Robinson, Jason Witten, Jordan Matthews, Eric Decker
Tier 10: DeAngelo Williams, Vernon Davis, Mike Evans, Toby Gerhart, Owen Daniels, Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline


0.5 PPR Flex



Tier 1: Mike Wallace, Victor Cruz, Rob Gronkowski, Keenan Allen, Brandin Cooks, Cordarrelle Patterson, Arian Foster
Tier 2: Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw, DeSean Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Roddy White
Tier 3: Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 4: Martellus Bennett, Frank Gore, Shane Vereen, Greg Olsen, DeAndre Hopkins, Marques Colston
Tier 5: Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, Reggie Wayne, Golden Tate, Matt Asiata, Doug Martin
Tier 6: Stevan Ridley, Delanie Walker, Kendall Wright, Sammy Watkins, Khiry Robinson, Ty Hilton, Antonio Gates, Pierre Thomas
Tier 7: Fred Jackson, Markus Wheaton, Niles Paul
Tier 8: Terrance Williams, Joique Bell, Greg Jennings, Zach Ertz, Anquan Boldin
Tier 9: Larry Donnell, Torrey Smith, DeAngelo Williams, Cecil Shorts, James Jones, Jason Witten, Rueben Randle, Eric Decker
Tier 10: Justin Hunter, Travis Kelce, Toby Gerhart, Vernon Davis, Steven Jackson, Jordan Matthews, Allen Robinson
Tier 11: Christopher Ivory, Trent Richardson, Mike Evans, Knile Davis


0.5 PPR RB


Tier 1: DeMarco Murray, Matt Forte, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 2: LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Alfred Morris, Donald Brown, Rashad Jennings, Lamar Miller, Jamaal Charles
Tier 3: Ahmad Bradshaw, C.J. Spiller, Arian Foster
Tier 4: Shane Vereen, Frank Gore, Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush
Tier 5: Matt Asiata, Stevan Ridley, Doug Martin, Khiry Robinson, Pierre Thomas, Fred Jackson
Tier 6: Joique Bell
Tier 7: DeAngelo Williams, Steven Jackson, Toby Gerhart, Christopher Ivory, Trent Richardson, Knile Davis, Bobby Rainey
Tier 8: Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, Alfred Blue, Bernard Pierce, Lorenzo Taliaferro
Tier 9: Justin Forsett, Shonn Greene, Bishop Sankey, Roy Helu


0.5 PPR TE


Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 2: Martellus Bennett, Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker, Antonio Gates, Niles Paul
Tier 3: Zach Ertz, Larry Donnell, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis, Travis Kelce
Tier 4: Owen Daniels, Heath Miller, Charles Clay, Dwayne Allen
Tier 5: Ladarius Green, Garrett Graham, Brandon Myers, Eric Ebron, Coby Fleener, Andrew Quarless
Tier 6: MarQueis Gray, Jace Amaro, Derek Carrier, Austin Seferian-Jenkins


0.5 PPR WR

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant
Tier 2: Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Pierre Garcon, Randall Cobb
Tier 3: Jeremy Maclin, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, Andre Johnson
Tier 4: Mike Wallace, Victor Cruz, Keenan Allen, Cordarrelle Patterson, Brandin Cooks, Steve Smith
Tier 5: Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Kelvin Benjamin, Roddy White
Tier 6: DeAndre Hopkins, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Golden Tate
Tier 7: Kendall Wright, Sammy Watkins, Ty Hilton
Tier 8: Markus Wheaton, Terrance Williams, Greg Jennings, Anquan Boldin
Tier 9: Cecil Shorts, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Rueben Randle, James Jones, Justin Hunter, Allen Robinson, Jordan Matthews, Jeremy Kerley
Tier 10: Mike Evans, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 11: Malcom Floyd, Harry Douglas, Allen Hurns, Brian Hartline, Eddie Royal, Hakeem Nicks
Tier 12: Steve Johnson, Riley Cooper, Nate Washington, Kenny Stills, Davante Adams, Denarius Moore, Andre Holmes, Robert Woods
Tier 13: Devin Hester

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Week 3 Tiers - Saturday Update

Here is a Saturday update.


In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results are a simple series of charts that can help you decide your line up each week. 

Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for each week. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

A few Saturday afternoon comments:

Most experts aren't buying into the Darren Sproles week 1-2 outbreak, and neither do I. He's still second fiddle to LeSean McCoy, who is showing no signs of regression.  Think of Sproles' first two weeks as his absolute ceiling (similar to Antonio Gates). I find his placement in the Chris Johnson, Pierre Thomas, and Bernard Pierce range appropriate. 

Michael Crabtree seems to have separated himself out of the tier 5 pack he was in. This is probably happen in light of Vernon Davis being questionable for this week, and a few people noticing that historically Crabtree hasn't had too many problems against Patrick Peterson.

A.J. Green is now probable. On paper (due to slow updates from some experts), he shares tier 5 with Crabtree, but this is conservative. I think he'll fall in the tier 3 range around Keenan Allen and Cordarrelle Patterson by Sunday assuming he starts, possibly higher.

A few people pointed out some inconsistencies between the flex chart and the RB and WR charts.  This is nothing new -- flex rankings on fantasypros have always been an after thought for experts as they're not graded for them.  132 experts have submitted RB rankings this week, but only 104 have submitted flex rankings.  This means occasionally they won't be aligned, but for now this is still the best we have.

Good luck on Sunday, and feel free to post any last minute questions to me on twitter.















Thursday, September 18, 2014

Week 3 Tiers

In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results can be visualized on a series of charts that can help you decide your line up each week. 

Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for each week. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

Tips:

(1) Always favor higher tier players. Tiers are probabilistic; the numbers vary, but roughly speaking: 

Player A is 1 tier higher than player B  = player A has a 60% chance of scoring more
Player A is 2 tiers higher than player B = player A has a 70% chance of scoring more
Player A is 3 tiers higher than player B = player A has a 80% chance of scoring more

(2) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. I also recommend diversifying your starters across games. /u/ChunkyDrummer had a good suggestion of going with the game with a higher vegas line.

(3) In depth commentary link: Fantasy Football: Week 3 Player Tiers

(4) To use the flex chart, fill in your RB, WR, and TE slots first.  Then, refer to the flex chart to find the best of your remaining options.


Charts will come out every Thursday.

Standard:

RB link: Standard - Running backs (note: Doug Martin out puts Rainey in tier 4)

(To avoid paywall issues, right click each > open in new tab from these links above. If you see Week 2 still, try deleting your cookies or private browsing mode.)


Standard Flex (only Flex25 - Flex85 are shown):


Tier 1: Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery
Tier 2: Andre Ellington, Cordarrelle Patterson, Julian Edelman, Rashad Jennings, Pierre Garcon, C.J. Spiller, Rob Gronkowski, Joique Bell, Mike Wallace, Roddy White
Tier 3: Jeremy Maclin, Stevan Ridley
Tier 4: Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Floyd, Greg Olsen, Marques Colston, Terrance West
Tier 5: Shane Vereen, Reggie Wayne, Ty Hilton, Reggie Bush, Brandin Cooks, Larry Fitzgerald, Zach Ertz, Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 6: Chris Johnson, Sammy Watkins, Golden Tate
Tier 7: Antonio Gates, Martellus Bennett, Lamar Miller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Victor Cruz, Pierre Thomas
Tier 8: Doug Martin, DeSean Jackson
Tier 9: Bernard Pierce, Kendall Wright, Dennis Pitta, Donald Brown, Steve Smith, Darren Sproles, Kyle Rudolph, Vernon Davis
Tier 10: Torrey Smith, DeAndre Hopkins, Christopher Ivory, Brian Quick, Fred Jackson, Toby Gerhart, Eric Decker
Tier 11: Matt Asiata, Delanie Walker, Bobby Rainey, Khiry Robinson, Mohamed Sanu



PPR RB


Tier 1: DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Giovani Bernard
Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, Matt Forte, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 3: Knile Davis, Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball
Tier 4: Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Rashad Jennings, C.J. Spiller
Tier 5: Darren Sproles, Shane Vereen, Joique Bell, Reggie Bush
Tier 6: Frank Gore, Stevan Ridley, Terrance West, Pierre Thomas
Tier 7: Bobby Rainey
Tier 8: Lamar Miller, Chris Johnson, Matt Asiata, Ahmad Bradshaw, Doug Martin
Tier 9: Toby Gerhart, Bernard Pierce, Fred Jackson, Danny Woodhead
Tier 10: Donald Brown, Christopher Ivory, Darren McFadden
Tier 11: Steven Jackson, Trent Richardson, Khiry Robinson, Jonathan Stewart


PPR WR


Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson
Tier 2: Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown, Andre Johnson
Tier 3: Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon, Percy Harvin, Roddy White, Keenan Allen, Vincent Jackson
Tier 4: Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Wallace, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Crabtree
Tier 5: Emmanuel Sanders, Jeremy Maclin, Michael Floyd, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston
Tier 6: Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Ty Hilton, Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 7: Kendall Wright, Golden Tate, Brandin Cooks, Sammy Watkins
Tier 8: Mohamed Sanu, Steve Smith
Tier 9: Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Anquan Boldin, Brian Quick, Markus Wheaton, Andrew Hawkins, Greg Jennings, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 10: Torrey Smith, James Jones, Justin Hunter, DeSean Jackson
Tier 11: Terrance Williams, Mike Evans, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 12: Marqise Lee, Robert Woods, Riley Cooper, Rueben Randle, Brian Hartline, Doug Baldwin
Tier 13: Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Kerley, Harry Douglas, Miles Austin, Cecil Shorts


PPR TE


Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas
Tier 2: Kyle Rudolph, Martellus Bennett, Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen
Tier 3: Zach Ertz, Niles Paul, Dennis Pitta
Tier 4: Delanie Walker, Jordan Cameron, Larry Donnell
Tier 5: Travis Kelce, Vernon Davis, Charles Clay, Jason Witten
Tier 6: Dwayne Allen, Jared Cook, Jermaine Gresham, Heath Miller
Tier 7: Owen Daniels, Ladarius Green, Coby Fleener, Brandon Myers, Garrett Graham

PPR Flex


Tier 1: Keenan Allen, Vincent Jackson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Wallace, Montee Ball, Eddie Lacy, Michael Crabtree, Alshon Jeffery
Tier 2: Emmanuel Sanders, Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy, Andre Ellington, Jeremy Maclin, Reggie Wayne, Michael Floyd
Tier 3: Kyle Rudolph, Marques Colston, Martellus Bennett, Rashad Jennings, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 4: C.J. Spiller, Victor Cruz, Kelvin Benjamin, Ty Hilton, Antonio Gates, Darren Sproles
Tier 5: Greg Olsen, Kendall Wright, Golden Tate, Brandin Cooks, Shane Vereen, Joique Bell, Sammy Watkins, Zach Ertz
Tier 6: Reggie Bush, Mohamed Sanu, Steve Smith, Niles Paul
Tier 7: Dennis Pitta, Anquan Boldin, Wes Welker, Eric Decker
Tier 8: Stevan Ridley, Frank Gore, Andrew Hawkins, Delanie Walker, Brian Quick, Markus Wheaton, DeAndre Hopkins, Greg Jennings, Terrance West, Jordan Cameron
Tier 9: James Jones, Pierre Thomas, Torrey Smith, Bobby Rainey
Tier 10: Justin Hunter, Larry Donnell, DeSean Jackson, Lamar Miller, Chris Johnson



HALF PPR RB


Tier 1: LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Giovani Bernard, Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, Matt Forte
Tier 2: Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Alfred Morris, Knile Davis, Montee Ball, Zac Stacy
Tier 3: Andre Ellington, Rashad Jennings, C.J. Spiller
Tier 4: Shane Vereen, Joique Bell, Reggie Bush
Tier 5: Frank Gore, Stevan Ridley, Darren Sproles, Terrance West
Tier 6: Chris Johnson, Pierre Thomas, Lamar Miller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Bobby Rainey, Doug Martin, Bernard Pierce
Tier 7: Matt Asiata, Donald Brown, Toby Gerhart, Fred Jackson, Christopher Ivory
Tier 8: Khiry Robinson, Danny Woodhead, Steven Jackson, Darren McFadden, Trent Richardson, Jonathan Stewart


HALF PPR WR


Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall
Tier 2: Randall Cobb, Antonio Brown, Andre Johnson
Tier 3: Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Keenan Allen, Roddy White, Cordarrelle Patterson, Alshon Jeffery
Tier 4: Mike Wallace, Michael Crabtree
Tier 5: Jeremy Maclin, Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Floyd, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne
Tier 6: Larry Fitzgerald, Ty Hilton, Kelvin Benjamin, Victor Cruz
Tier 7: Brandin Cooks, Golden Tate, Kendall Wright, Sammy Watkins
Tier 8: Steve Smith, Mohamed Sanu, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Brian Quick, DeAndre Hopkins, DeSean Jackson
Tier 9: Anquan Boldin, Greg Jennings, Markus Wheaton, Justin Hunter, Andrew Hawkins, James Jones, Terrance Williams
Tier 10: Mike Evans, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 11: Rueben Randle, Riley Cooper, Marqise Lee
Tier 12: Robert Woods, Hakeem Nicks, Cecil Shorts, Jeremy Kerley, Doug Baldwin, Harry Douglas, Aaron Dobson, Brian Hartline


HALF PPR TE


Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 2: Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph, Martellus Bennett, Antonio Gates, Zach Ertz
Tier 3: Dennis Pitta, Niles Paul, Delanie Walker, Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis
Tier 4: Larry Donnell, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, Charles Clay
Tier 5: Dwayne Allen, Jared Cook, Heath Miller
Tier 6: Jermaine Gresham
Tier 7: Owen Daniels, Ladarius Green, Garrett Graham, Brandon Myers, Coby Fleener


HALF PPR FLEX


Tier 1: Julian Edelman, Keenan Allen, Pierre Garcon, Montee Ball, Roddy White, Zac Stacy, Cordarrelle Patterson, Alshon Jeffery
Tier 2: Mike Wallace, Andre Ellington
Tier 3: Michael Crabtree, C.J. Spiller, Jeremy Maclin, Rashad Jennings, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne
Tier 5: Larry Fitzgerald, Greg Olsen, Joique Bell, Ty Hilton, Shane Vereen, Kelvin Benjamin, Martellus Bennett
Tier 6: Victor Cruz, Brandin Cooks, Reggie Bush, Kyle Rudolph, Antonio Gates, Zach Ertz, Golden Tate, Stevan Ridley, Frank Gore, Kendall Wright
Tier 7: Sammy Watkins, Darren Sproles, Terrance West
Tier 8: Dennis Pitta, Steve Smith, Wes Welker
Tier 9: Chris Johnson, Mohamed Sanu, Pierre Thomas, Torrey Smith, DeSean Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, Eric Decker, Lamar Miller, Brian Quick
Tier 10: Ahmad Bradshaw, Delanie Walker, Anquan Boldin, Bobby Rainey, Niles Paul, Doug Martin
Tier 11: Bernard Pierce, Greg Jennings, Markus Wheaton, Justin Hunter, Andrew Hawkins



Note: When a player of higher tier is ranked lower than a player of lower tier, this signals heavy disagreement and variance, and the player can be seen as in-between tiers.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Week 2 Tiers

Here are your week 2 tiers. 

In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results can be visualized on a series of charts that can help you decide your line up each week. 

For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

Week 2 tips:

(1) Always stick with higher tier players.
(2) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut.
(3) In depth commentary: Fantasy Football: Week 2 Player Tiers

Charts will come out every Thursday.

Standard:


(To avoid paywall issues, right click each > open in new tab from these links above)

Standard Flex (only Flex25 - Flex85 are shown):


Tier 1: Randall Cobb, Frank Gore, Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Rob Gronkowski, Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, Percy Harvin
Tier 2: Pierre Garcon
Tier 3: Emmanuel Sanders, C.J. Spiller, Larry Fitzgerald, Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings, Toby Gerhart, Andre Ellington
Tier 4: NA, 
Tier 5: Victor Cruz, Jeremy Maclin, Vernon Davis, Keenan Allen, Chris Johnson, Mike Wallace, Zac Stacy, DeSean Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree, Doug Martin
Tier 6: Kendall Wright, Reggie Bush, Torrey Smith, Marques Colston, Greg Olsen, Reggie Wayne, Eric Decker, Ty Hilton
Tier 7: Brandin Cooks, Ryan Mathews
Tier 8: Kelvin Benjamin, Joique Bell, Jason Witten, Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph, Dennis Pitta, Jordan Cameron, Terrance West
Tier 9: Justin Hunter, Fred Jackson, Golden Tate, Mark Ingram
Tier 10: Terrance Williams, Pierre Thomas, Anquan Boldin, Steven Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, Martellus Bennett, Shonn Greene
Tier 11: Greg Jennings, Markus Wheaton, Bernard Pierce, Charles Clay


PPR RB


Tier 1: LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte
Tier 2: Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, Giovani Bernard, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Montee Ball, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 3: Shane Vereen, Eddie Lacy, Reggie Bush
Tier 4: Alfred Morris, C.J. Spiller, Rashad Jennings, Andre Ellington
Tier 5: Frank Gore, Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, Chris Johnson, Toby Gerhart, Knowshon Moreno
Tier 6: Joique Bell, Pierre Thomas, Ryan Mathews
Tier 7: Terrance West, Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram
Tier 8: Shonn Greene, Steven Jackson, Justin Forsett, Bernard Pierce, Danny Woodhead, Trent Richardson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Lamar Miller
Tier 9: Christopher Ivory, Ahmad Bradshaw


PPR WR

Tier 1: Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Andre Johnson
Tier 2: Randall Cobb, Roddy White, Pierre Garcon, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd, Percy Harvin
Tier 3: Vincent Jackson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman, Kendall Wright, Victor Cruz
Tier 4: Mike Wallace, Michael Crabtree, Reggie Wayne, Keenan Allen, Eric Decker
Tier 5: Marques Colston, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith, DeSean Jackson, Ty Hilton, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 6: Justin Hunter, Golden Tate, DeAndre Hopkins, Anquan Boldin, Markus Wheaton, Greg Jennings, Terrance Williams, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 7: Steve Smith
Tier 8: Andrew Hawkins, Riley Cooper, Marqise Lee, Rueben Randle, Sammy Watkins, Brian Hartline, Allen Hurns, Mike Evans, Doug Baldwin, Hakeem Nicks, Cecil Shorts
Tier 9: Robert Woods, Rod Streater, Andre Caldwell, Mohamed Sanu, Jarrett Boykin, Malcom Floyd


PPR TE

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 2: Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen, Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta
Tier 3: Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph, Jason Witten
Tier 4: Martellus Bennett, Delanie Walker, Charles Clay, Heath Miller
Tier 5: Travis Kelce, Antonio Gates
Tier 6: Dwayne Allen, Niles Paul, Jared Cook, Larry Donnell
Tier 7: Marcedes Lewis, Jermaine Gresham, Ladarius Green
Tier 8: Brandon Myers, Coby Fleener, Eric Ebron


PPR Flex

Tier 1: Pierre Garcon, Alshon Jeffery, Michael Floyd, Percy Harvin
Tier 2: Vincent Jackson, Cordarrelle Patterson, Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman, Kendall Wright
Tier 3: Victor Cruz, Shane Vereen, Eddie Lacy, Mike Wallace, Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree
Tier 4: Reggie Wayne, Greg Olsen, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston
Tier 5: Eric Decker, Keenan Allen, Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Cameron
Tier 6: Torrey Smith, Alfred Morris, DeSean Jackson, Rashad Jennings, C.J. Spiller, Ty Hilton, Dennis Pitta, Andre Ellington
Tier 7: Brandin Cooks, Frank Gore, Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 8: Jason Witten, Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph, Doug Martin
Tier 9: Zac Stacy, Golden Tate, Chris Johnson, Justin Hunter, Toby Gerhart, DeAndre Hopkins, Knowshon Moreno, Anquan Boldin
Tier 10: Greg Jennings, Terrance Williams, Markus Wheaton, Martellus Bennett
Tier 11: Pierre Thomas, Joique Bell, Steve Smith, Delanie Walker, Charles Clay, Terrance West, Andrew Hawkins
Tier 12: Ryan Mathews, Riley Cooper, Fred Jackson


Half PPR RB

Tier 1: LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson
Tier 2: Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, DeMarco Murray, Montee Ball, Giovani Bernard, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 3: Eddie Lacy, Alfred Morris, Shane Vereen, Frank Gore
Tier 4: C.J. Spiller, Rashad Jennings, Reggie Bush, Andre Ellington
Tier 5: Zac Stacy, Toby Gerhart, Chris Johnson, Doug Martin, Knowshon Moreno
Tier 6: Joique Bell, Ryan Mathews
Tier 7: Pierre Thomas, Terrance West, Fred Jackson, Mark Ingram
Tier 8: Steven Jackson, Bernard Pierce, Darren Sproles, Shonn Greene, Justin Forsett
Tier 9: Trent Richardson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Stevan Ridley, Lamar Miller, Christopher Ivory, Danny Woodhead


Half PPR WR

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall
Tier 2: Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Andre Johnson
Tier 3: Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Roddy White, Pierre Garcon, Michael Floyd, Vincent Jackson, Percy Harvin, Cordarrelle Patterson
Tier 4: Larry Fitzgerald, Emmanuel Sanders, Kendall Wright, Victor Cruz, Julian Edelman
Tier 5: Michael Crabtree, Keenan Allen, Mike Wallace, Jeremy Maclin, Torrey Smith, Reggie Wayne, Eric Decker, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson
Tier 6: Ty Hilton, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 7: Justin Hunter, Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin, DeAndre Hopkins, Terrance Williams, Markus Wheaton, Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 8: Steve Smith, Riley Cooper, Rueben Randle, Andrew Hawkins, Sammy Watkins, Marqise Lee, Mike Evans, Brian Hartline, Cecil Shorts
Tier 9: Allen Hurns, Hakeem Nicks, Doug Baldwin
Tier 10: Robert Woods, Rod Streater, Andre Caldwell, Mohamed Sanu, Kenny Britt, Jarrett Boykin


Half PPR TE

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 2: Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen
Tier 3: Jordan Cameron, Dennis Pitta, Jason Witten, Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph
Tier 4: Martellus Bennett, Delanie Walker, Charles Clay
Tier 5: Heath Miller, Travis Kelce, Dwayne Allen, Antonio Gates
Tier 6: Niles Paul, Larry Donnell, Coby Fleener, Jared Cook, Ladarius Green, Jermaine Gresham, Marcedes Lewis
Tier 7: Brandon Myers, Eric Ebron


Half PPR Flex

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Pierre Garcon, Michael Floyd, Vincent Jackson, Percy Harvin, Cordarrelle Patterson
Tier 2: Eddie Lacy, Larry Fitzgerald, Alfred Morris
Tier 3: Emmanuel Sanders, Victor Cruz, Kendall Wright, Frank Gore, Shane Vereen, Julian Edelman
Tier 4: Vernon Davis, Keenan Allen, C.J. Spiller, Mike Wallace, Reggie Bush, Michael Crabtree, Rashad Jennings
Tier 5: Jeremy Maclin, Greg Olsen, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, DeSean Jackson, Andre Ellington
Tier 6: Zac Stacy, Ty Hilton, Toby Gerhart, Doug Martin, Jordan Cameron
Tier 7: Chris Johnson, Brandin Cooks
Tier 8: Jason Witten, Dennis Pitta, Knowshon Moreno, Kelvin Benjamin, Zach Ertz, Kyle Rudolph
Tier 9: Golden Tate, Justin Hunter, Joique Bell, DeAndre Hopkins, Anquan Boldin, Ryan Mathews, Terrance Williams, Martellus Bennett, Terrance West
Tier 10: Pierre Thomas, Greg Jennings, Markus Wheaton, Fred Jackson, Mark Ingram
Tier 11: Steve Smith, Charles Clay, Delanie Walker, Riley Cooper