Monday, August 11, 2014

Preseason Top 200 Spreadsheet

Here is an update of the top 200, now also in spreadsheet format (all data are from fantasypros, aside from Tier, which is appended to the end):

Boris Chen's Fantasy Football Tiers - Predraft Spreadsheet [Standard, PPR, Half-PPR]

My advice for drafting with this model is as follows:
1) Always prefer higher tier players.
2) When choosing between two players of the same tier, diversify your picks across positions and teams.
3) Never go into the draft set in picking up certain positions.  Let the mistakes of others dictate what you pick by sticking with high tier players.

See last week's post for charts for individual positions.

Top 200 Standard:



Top 200 PPR:




Top 200 Half-PPR:




Wednesday, August 6, 2014

2014 Preseason - Top 200

Here is my top 200 for 2014, split into 22 tiers.

Position specific:

The QB, RB, WR, and TE charts will be hosted at NYTimes. To get around the NYTimes paywalluse the links here (right click + open in new tab):

Drafting a Fantasy Football Team, With Help From Advanced Statistics

Unfortunately the paywall is beyond my control, but as long as you enter through external links (like the ones above), you'll always be able to view them for free.

If this is your first time here, the tiers are determined using a machine learning algorithm which reads from fantasypros data to smartly cluster each player into their natural tiers. You can read the details of the algorithm here or last year's article here.

Overall top 200:

Tier 1-10

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Calvin Johnson
Tier 2: Demaryius Thomas, Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch
Tier 3: A.J. Green, Le'Veon Bell, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Arian Foster, Giovani Bernard
Tier 4: Peyton Manning, Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, Zac Stacy, Alfred Morris, Antonio Brown, Aaron Rodgers, Doug Martin, Drew Brees, Andre Ellington, Randall Cobb
Tier 5: Keenan Allen, Toby Gerhart, Vincent Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Rob Gronkowski, Ryan Mathews, Andre Johnson, Victor Cruz, Pierre Garcon, Julius Thomas
Tier 6: Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Bush, Roddy White, Rashad Jennings
Tier 7: Michael Crabtree, Matthew Stafford, Wes Welker, Frank Gore, Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, Joique Bell, Bishop Sankey
Tier 8: Andrew Luck, Shane Vereen, Percy Harvin, DeSean Jackson, Torrey Smith
Tier 9: Jordan Cameron, Chris Johnson, Ben Tate, Mike Wallace, Trent Richardson, Nick Foles, Ray Rice, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton
Tier 10: Kendall Wright, Ty Hilton, Stevan Ridley, Lamar Miller

Tier 11-18

Tier 11: Marques Colston, Vernon Davis, Jeremy Maclin, Steven Jackson, Tony Romo, Tom Brady
Tier 12: Pierre Thomas, Jason Witten, Eric Decker, Terrance Williams, Julian Edelman, Greg Olsen, Colin Kaepernick, Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 13: Reggie Wayne, Jordan Reed, Rueben Randle, Jay Cutler, Fred Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Sammy Watkins, Dwayne Bowe, Kyle Rudolph, Dennis Pitta, Russell Wilson
Tier 14: Cecil Shorts, Mike Evans, Philip Rivers, Terrance West, Brandin Cooks
Tier 15: Riley Cooper, DeAngelo Williams, Danny Woodhead, Marvin Jones, Anquan Boldin, Darren Sproles, Bernard Pierce, DeAndre Hopkins, Ben Roethlisberger, Darren McFadden, Jeremy Hill
Tier 16: Zach Ertz, Christopher Ivory, Martellus Bennett, Tavon Austin, Brian Hartline, Charles Clay, Hakeem Nicks, Justin Hunter, Knowshon Moreno, Devonta Freeman, James Jones, Greg Jennings
Tier 17: Kelvin Benjamin, Kenny Stills, Seattle Seahawks, Andy Dalton, Jarrett Boykin, Markus Wheaton, Christine Michael, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram
Tier 18: Ryan Tannehill, Ladarius Green, Heath Miller, Jordan Matthews, Jonathan Stewart

Tier 18-22
Tier 18: Khiry Robinson, Josh Gordon
Tier 19: Carson Palmer, Steve Smith, Doug Baldwin, Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers, Eli Manning, Delanie Walker, Shonn Greene, Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Williams, Antonio Gates, Kenny Britt, Andrew Hawkins, Johnny Manziel, Donald Brown, James White
Tier 20: Robert Woods, LeGarrette Blount, Josh McCown, Tyler Eifert, Dwayne Allen, Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, Marqise Lee, Odell Beckham Jr., Rod Streater, Joe Flacco, Garrett Graham, Knile Davis, Harry Douglas, Andre Brown, Tre Mason, Charles Sims, Steve Johnson, Mike Williams, Jake Locker, Malcom Floyd, David Wilson
Tier 21: St. Louis Rams, Carolina Panthers, Lance Dunbar, Sam Bradford, Jerricho Cotchery, James Starks, Stepfan Taylor, E.J. Manuel, Bryce Brown, Miles Austin
Tier 22: Roy Helu, Cincinnati Bengals, Coby Fleener, C.J. Anderson, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Jacquizz Rodgers, Mike Tolbert, Arizona Cardinals, Teddy Bridgewater





PPR charts:

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant
Tier 2: Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, Giovani Bernard, Montee Ball, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 3: Antonio Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Andre Ellington, Jordy Nelson, Arian Foster, Alshon Jeffery
Tier 4: Randall Cobb, Zac Stacy, Doug Martin, Rob Gronkowski, Pierre Garcon, Andre Johnson, Reggie Bush, Peyton Manning
Tier 5: Julius Thomas, Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, C.J. Spiller, Keenan Allen, Drew Brees, Shane Vereen, Ryan Mathews
Tier 6: NA, 
Tier 7: Roddy White, Alfred Morris, Wes Welker, Larry Fitzgerald, Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Joique Bell
Tier 8: Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kendall Wright, Pierre Thomas, Matthew Stafford, Julian Edelman, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Bishop Sankey, Torrey Smith, Percy Harvin
Tier 9: Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson, Lamar Miller, Ben Tate, Andrew Luck, Jordan Cameron, Marques Colston, Trent Richardson, Ty Hilton, Frank Gore
Tier 10: Eric Decker, Danny Woodhead

Tier 11: Nick Foles, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Matt Ryan, Greg Olsen, Robert Griffin III, Steven Jackson
Tier 12: Dennis Pitta, Jordan Reed, Jeremy Maclin, Cam Newton, Terrance Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Reggie Wayne, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Stevan Ridley, Golden Tate, Fred Jackson
Tier 13: Dwayne Bowe, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rueben Randle, Darren Sproles, Colin Kaepernick, Sammy Watkins, Cecil Shorts
Tier 14: Marvin Jones, Kyle Rudolph, DeAndre Hopkins, Bernard Pierce, Jay Cutler
Tier 15: Brandin Cooks, Brian Hartline, Mike Evans, Philip Rivers, Terrance West, Russell Wilson, DeAngelo Williams, Riley Cooper, Anquan Boldin, Darren McFadden
Tier 16: Tavon Austin, Seattle Seahawks, Charles Clay, Greg Jennings, Martellus Bennett, Devonta Freeman, Jeremy Hill, Knowshon Moreno
Tier 17: Kelvin Benjamin, Ben Roethlisberger, Jarrett Boykin, Hakeem Nicks, Zach Ertz, Markus Wheaton, Justin Hunter, James Jones, Doug Baldwin, Steve Smith, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Kenny Stills, Christine Michael
Tier 18: Christopher Ivory, Jordan Matthews, Delanie Walker, Heath Miller, Mark Ingram, Antonio Gates, Robert Woods

Tier 18: Khiry Robinson, Andrew Hawkins, Josh Gordon
Tier 19: Lance Dunbar, Carlos Hyde, Rod Streater, Shonn Greene, Marqise Lee, Ladarius Green, Ahmad Bradshaw, Harry Douglas, Andy Dalton, Knile Davis, Jonathan Stewart, Andre Brown, Garrett Graham
Tier 20: Jared Cook, Jacquizz Rodgers, Charles Sims, Roy Helu, Eric Ebron, Donald Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Jerricho Cotchery, Kenny Britt, Tyler Eifert, Steve Johnson, Tre Mason, Andre Williams, Bryce Brown, C.J. Anderson, Eli Manning, Johnny Manziel, Owen Daniels, Andre Holmes
Tier 21: Mike Williams, Ryan Tannehill, Dexter McCluster, LeGarrette Blount, Dwayne Allen, Mike Tolbert, Stepfan Taylor, San Francisco 49ers, Alex Smith, Malcom Floyd, James White, Miles Austin, Nate Washington, Brandon LaFell, Carson Palmer, David Wilson, St. Louis Rams
Tier 22: Denarius Moore, Cody Latimer, Carolina Panthers, Coby Fleener, James Starks, Allen Robinson, Andre Roberts, Jeremy Kerley

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson
Tier 2: Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, Montee Ball, Giovani Bernard
Tier 3: Le'Veon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, Andre Ellington
Tier 4: Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, Zac Stacy, C.J. Spiller
Tier 5: Shane Vereen, Ryan Mathews, Alfred Morris, Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell
Tier 6: Pierre Thomas, Chris Johnson
Tier 7: Ray Rice, Bishop Sankey, Ben Tate, Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Trent Richardson
Tier 8: Danny Woodhead, Steven Jackson
Tier 9: Fred Jackson, Stevan Ridley, Darren Sproles, Maurice Jones-Drew
Tier 10: Bernard Pierce, DeAngelo Williams, Darren McFadden, Terrance West

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones
Tier 2: Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon
Tier 3: Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker, Michael Crabtree
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Torrey Smith, Cordarrelle Patterson, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace, Julian Edelman
Tier 5: DeSean Jackson, Marques Colston, Ty Hilton, Eric Decker
Tier 6: Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin, Terrance Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Dwayne Bowe, Golden Tate
Tier 7: Cecil Shorts, Rueben Randle, Sammy Watkins
Tier 8: Marvin Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Hartline, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Greg Jennings, Riley Cooper, Anquan Boldin
Tier 9: Tavon Austin, James Jones, Hakeem Nicks, Kelvin Benjamin, Justin Hunter, Jarrett Boykin, Markus Wheaton, Aaron Dobson, Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, Doug Baldwin, Steve Smith
Tier 10: Andrew Hawkins

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas
Tier 2: Jordan Cameron, Greg Olsen, Jason Witten, Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph
Tier 3: Charles Clay, Martellus Bennett
Tier 4: Zach Ertz, Heath Miller, Delanie Walker, Antonio Gates
Tier 5: Garrett Graham, Jared Cook, Ladarius Green, Tyler Eifert, Dwayne Allen, Eric Ebron
Tier 6: Owen Daniels, Travis Kelce

Shoutout to /r/Beer4TheBeerGod for his incredibly insightful observation about in-season accuracy in 2013 only varying by 10%.

Monday, July 21, 2014

First charts for 2014

Here are some early charts for 2014 - I'm excited to run these weekly for everyone again this season.  I will be updating these more often as draft season progresses. If this is your first time here, please read this summary: nyti.ms/1mzyQaN.  

Welcome back and good luck preparing for your drafts!







Monday, March 17, 2014

Pre-draft Baseball Tier Charts

Here are some updated tier charts for your fantasy baseball drafts (both position specific and overall charts). Data has been refreshed as of 3/17/2014.

- Ranks are imported from fantasypros.

- Tiers are generated using a Gaussian mixture model, which discover which players are ranked similarly. For a detailed explanation, see my introduction of the model for football (link).

- Tiers are subjective, but I consider players on the same tier found by this algorithm to be largely interchangeable.

- I've adjusted the depth of the charts based on feedback from last time. Always looking for more feedback which you can provide below or on twitter (link).

Overall:





Position specific:

1B
 2B
 3B
 C
 DH
 OF
 RP
 SP
 SS

Friday, March 14, 2014

Fantasy Baseball Tiers - Overall Positions

Last week, I presented some tiers for individual positions. This week, I applied the algorithm across all positions. The result is nice visualization of the tiers for overall players from ranks 1-200.

If this is the first time seeing this model, here is a brief description: (for everyone else, jump to the charts below)

I take an aggregation of expert ranks (via fantasypros), and pass it into a machine learning clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model.  This algorithm finds natural tiers among players by consider which players were ranked similarly to other players. The result is charts which help you visualize the tiers and help you draft players.

As always, feel free to direct comments, questions and suggestions below or on twitter.





Monday, February 24, 2014

Fantasy Baseball Tiers (beta)

Last August, I developed a machine learning model for fantasy football which naturally ranks players into tiers.  Today, I'm introducing the model for fantasy baseball.

The model works like so. Consider an aggregation of expert analysts, each with their own sources and methodologies, ranking all players. Then pass each of their rankings into a clustering algorithm (I use one called the Gaussian mixture model), which identifies which players are ranked similarly with others, thus forming a tier. The result can be plotted on a two dimensional graph which lets people visualize the tiers the algorithm finds.

Why does it work well? First, what we're essentially doing is taking a panel of 100 experts, each of whom does thorough research every week, then average their research findings. Secondly, we're removing a flawed assumption that is inherent in any ranked list -- a ranked list assumes #1 > #2 > #3, where as in reality, sometimes #1 >>> #2 = #3. This models helps us see that.

This is all possible thanks to Fantasypros, one of the best resources available for fantasy sports. Match-ups, injuries, strength of schedule are all accounted for, since the experts account for that in their rankings.

Below are the charts and tiers for each position for current preseason rankings as of February 24, 2014.

Feel free to reach out to me with any comments or questions. You can find me on twitter here. Code will be posted soon.


1B

Tier 1: Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Davis, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, Freddie Freeman
Tier 2: Albert Pujols, Eric Hosmer, Adrian Gonzalez, Buster Posey, Allen Craig
Tier 3: Mark Trumbo, Anthony Rizzo, Carlos Santana, David Ortiz, Joe Mauer
Tier 4: Jose Dariel Abreu, Billy Butler, Matt Adams, Brandon Belt, Michael Cuddyer, Mike Napoli
Tier 5: Brandon Moss, Jonathan Lucroy, Kendrys Morales, Mark Teixeira, Victor Martinez, Daniel Murphy
Tier 6: Corey Hart, Ryan Howard, Nick Swisher
Tier 7: Justin Morneau, Chris Carter, Adam Lind, Chris Johnson, Adam LaRoche
Tier 8: Mitch Moreland, Daniel Nava, Logan Morrison, Justin Smoak, Adam Dunn, Yonder Alonso, James Loney, Ike Davis
Tier 9: Paul Konerko, Juan Francisco, Mike Olt, Garrett Jones, Chris McGuiness, Darin Ruf


2B

Tier 1: Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis, Dustin Pedroia, Matt Carpenter, Ian Kinsler
Tier 2: Jose Altuve, Brandon Phillips, Ben Zobrist
Tier 3: Aaron Hill, Jedd Gyorko, Martin Prado, Chase Utley, Brett Lawrie
Tier 4: Daniel Murphy, Jurickson Profar, Howie Kendrick, Jed Lowrie
Tier 5: Anthony Rendon, Brian Dozier, Neil Walker, Bradley Miller
Tier 6: Kelly Johnson, Omar Infante, Kolten Wong, Alexander Guerrero
Tier 7: Dan Uggla, Scooter Gennett, Josh Rutledge, Emilio Bonifacio, Gordon Beckham, Dustin Ackley, Marco Scutaro
Tier 8: Nick Franklin, DJ LeMahieu, Brian Roberts, Rickie Weeks, Rafael Furcal, Jordy Mercer
Tier 9: Mark Ellis, Alberto Callaspo, Jemile Weeks
Tier 10: Logan Forsythe, Maicer Izturis, Eric Sogard, Ryan Flaherty, Tommy La Stella, Darwin Barney, Derek Dietrich
Tier 11: Jonathan Schoop, Danny Espinosa


3B

Tier 1: Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, David Wright, Evan Longoria, Edwin Encarnacion
Tier 2: Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Donaldson, Matt Carpenter, Pedro Alvarez
Tier 3: Kyle Seager, Manny Machado, Martin Prado, Brett Lawrie, Pablo Sandoval, Aramis Ramirez, Jedd Gyorko
Tier 4: Chase Headley, Xander Bogaerts, Nolan Arenado, Jurickson Profar
Tier 5: Will Middlebrooks, Todd Frazier, Anthony Rendon
Tier 6: David Freese, Chris Johnson, Mike Moustakas, Matt Dominguez, Kelly Johnson, Emilio Bonifacio
Tier 7: Cody Asche, Trevor Plouffe, Matt Davidson, Mark Reynolds, Miguel Sano
Tier 8: Jose Iglesias, Juan Uribe, Lonnie Chisenhall, Michael Young, Mike Aviles, Alberto Callaspo
Tier 9: Juan Francisco, Maikel Franco, Luis Valbuena, Eric Chavez, Marcus Semien, Casey McGehee, Maicer Izturis, DJ LeMahieu
Tier 10: Mike Olt, Kris Bryant


SS

Tier 1: Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Desmond, Jose Reyes, Jean Segura
Tier 2: Elvis Andrus, Everth Cabrera, Ben Zobrist, Starlin Castro
Tier 3: Andrelton Simmons, J.J. Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, Alexei Ramirez, Jed Lowrie, Jimmy Rollins, Xander Bogaerts, Jurickson Profar
Tier 4: Jhonny Peralta, Bradley Miller, Jonathan Villar, Erick Aybar, Alcides Escobar
Tier 5: Derek Jeter, Stephen Drew, Zack Cozart
Tier 6: Rafael Furcal, Josh Rutledge, Jose Iglesias, Chris Owings, Yunel Escobar, Didi Gregorius, Javier Baez, Jordy Mercer, Brandon Crawford
Tier 7: Adeiny Hechavarria, Eduardo Nunez, Dee Gordon, Mike Aviles, Ruben Tejada, Pedro Florimon, Addison Russell
Tier 8: Miguel Sano, Maicer Izturis, Eric Sogard
Tier 9: Francisco Lindor, Cliff Pennington, Eduardo Escobar, Brendan Ryan, Nick Punto, Daniel Descalso


C

Tier 1: Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, Joe Mauer, Yadier Molina, Wilin Rosario, Brian McCann
Tier 2: Jonathan Lucroy, Salvador Perez, Matt Wieters, Evan Gattis, Wilson Ramos, Jason Castro
Tier 3: Yan Gomes, Miguel Montero, A.J. Pierzynski, Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Tier 4: Travis d'Arnaud, Russell Martin, Devin Mesoraco, Alex Avila, Carlos Ruiz, Dioner Navarro, Mike Zunino
Tier 5: Welington Castillo, Ryan Doumit, A.J. Ellis, Yasmani Grandal, Geovany Soto, J.P. Arencibia, Josmil Pinto, John Jaso
Tier 6: Josh Phegley, Derek Norris, Tyler Flowers, Chris Iannetta, Kurt Suzuki
Tier 7: Nick Hundley, Jesus Montero, Hank Conger, Ryan Hanigan, Stephen Vogt, Max Stassi, Jose Lobaton, David Ross, John Buck
Tier 8: Tim Federowicz


OF

Tier 1: Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Jones, Bryce Harper, Ryan Braun
Tier 2: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Gomez, Giancarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig
Tier 3: Jose Bautista, Jay Bruce, Justin Upton, Shin-Soo Choo, Alex Rios
Tier 4: Matt Holliday, Starling Marte, Hunter Pence
Tier 5: Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Allen Craig
Tier 6: Alex Gordon, Carlos Beltran, Domonic Brown, Mark Trumbo, Jayson Werth, Billy Hamilton, Josh Hamilton
Tier 7: Shane Victorino, Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson, Desmond Jennings, Michael Cuddyer
Tier 8: Coco Crisp, Austin Jackson, Alfonso Soriano, Nelson Cruz, Martin Prado, Leonys Martin
Tier 9: Brandon Moss, Brett Gardner, Carl Crawford, Dexter Fowler, Norichika Aoki
Tier 10: Evan Gattis, Torii Hunter, Michael Bourn, Alejandro De Aza


RP

Tier 1: Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Greg Holland, Koji Uehara, Trevor Rosenthal
Tier 2: Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, Sergio Romo, David Robertson, Jason Grilli, Michael Wacha
Tier 3: Rafael Soriano, Jonathan Papelbon, Addison Reed, Jim Johnson, Casey Janssen, Anthony Cingrani
Tier 4: Ernesto Frieri, Steve Cishek, Grant Balfour, Andrew Cashner
Tier 5: Huston Street, Fernando Rodney, Bobby Parnell, Jim Henderson
Tier 6: John Axford, Neftali Feliz, Jose Veras, Nate Jones, Drew Smyly, Tommy Hunter, Alex Wood
Tier 7: Danny Farquhar, Rex Brothers, LaTroy Hawkins, Joaquin Benoit, Mark Melancon, Tyson Ross, Carlos Martinez
Tier 8: Jesse Crain, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen, Tyler Clippard, Brian Wilson, Chad Qualls, Jake McGee, Pedro Strop, J.J. Putz
Tier 9: Joshua Fields


SP

Tier 1: Clayton Kershaw, Yu Darvish
Tier 2: Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Cliff Lee, Jose Fernandez
Tier 3: Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale, David Price, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke
Tier 4: Anibal Sanchez, Cole Hamels, Mat Latos, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Matt Cain
Tier 5: Homer Bailey, Gerrit Cole, Mike Minor, James Shields, Alex Cobb
Tier 6: Hisashi Iwakuma, Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, Matt Moore, Masahiro Tanaka
Tier 7: Kris Medlen, Jered Weaver, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Michael Wacha, Doug Fister, Francisco Liriano
Tier 8: Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto, Anthony Cingrani, Sonny Gray
Tier 9: Danny Salazar, Jon Lester, Patrick Corbin, Hiroki Kuroda, Clay Buchholz, CC Sabathia
Tier 10: R.A. Dickey, Andrew Cashner, Justin Masterson, Lance Lynn, Matt Garza

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

A 2013 Season Retrospective

Let's rewind and look at the 2013 season. Here are the tier accuracies for each week since week 6 (accuracy = percent of time the higher tier ends up scoring more than a lower tier):

WeekQBRBWRTEKDST
6501009073.366.780
7908086.7805083.3
81009073.386.783.3100
98010086.79083.380
109086.771.46033.350
11909086.78066.783.3
127077.861.173.33080
136063.478.866.72070
148064.378.6607050
156090.586.7805030
166085.773.386.78030
Average75.584.479.476.157.667

Ranked by accuracy, we have:

1. RB - 84.4%
2. WR - 79.4%
3. TE - 76.1%
4. QB - 75.5%
5. DST - 67%
6. K - 57.6%

RB and WR are the most predictable. Next is TE and QB. Finally DST tiers hold 2 out of 3 times and predicting K is only slightly better than random.

Now let's look back at the top 32 draft ranks from pre-season (by fantasypros, full sheet here)

Rank Position Player Name Ave Rank std dev/2
1RBAdrian Peterson10.3
2RBDoug Martin30.8
3RBJamaal Charles41.0
4RBC.J. Spiller51.7
5RBLeSean McCoy71.5
6RBMarshawn Lynch71.9
7RBArian Foster82.0
8RBTrent Richardson81.6
9RBRay Rice81.2
10WRCalvin Johnson81.3
11RBAlfred Morris132.8
12WRDez Bryant152.0
13WRA.J. Green151.8
14WRBrandon Marshall171.7
15TEJimmy Graham172.8
16RBMatt Forte162.8
17WRJulio Jones202.1
18WRDemaryius Thomas212.0
19RBSteven Jackson193.6
20QBDrew Brees234.2
21QBAaron Rodgers234.2
22RBStevan Ridley214.7
23RBChris Johnson223.8
24WRLarry Fitzgerald262.9
25RBMaurice Jones-Drew244.3
26WRRoddy White292.7
27WRAndre Johnson303.3
28WRRandall Cobb323.2
29WRVincent Jackson323.0
30WRVictor Cruz322.4
31RBFrank Gore315.5
32RBReggie Bush314.8

Out of 32 players, we have 2 QB's and 1 TE and the rest are either RB or WR's. In hindsight, this top 32 list makes a lot of sense.

Thanks everyone for a following this season.  I'll be posting some tiered charts for fantasy baseball next week - stay tuned via twitter.