Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Drafting by Tiers - 2014 Full Draft Kit

This will likely be the last update for the preseason -- very little has changed since last week.  Next week we'll be focusing on Week 1 charts.

Here is the full draft kit I personally use. There are three components, in order of importance: (a) the Google spreadsheet, (b) two charts for the top 180, and (c) six position specific charts.  The top 180 charts and spreadsheets are color synchronized.

(a) Boris Chen's Tiered Draft Sheet (copy and paste to your own)

(b) Top 200 Charts:


(c) Tiers by position:


An optional fourth component is fantasypros' compare players feature, on top of their outstanding data. Another nice tool to consider is Jay Zheng's draft aid.

Here are two complimentary articles with additional information:

Drafting a Fantasy Football Team, With Help From Advanced Statistics
Fantasy Football: Analyzing Draft Tiers With Advanced Statistics

Good luck everyone, and feel free to reach out to me on twitter @borisachen with questions, comments, or draft results.


Half PPR:




PPR:







Thursday, August 21, 2014

Top 200 - Preseason Update

Here is an update to the tier charts and sheets. I've tried to make this round colorblind friendly.  

Summary of the model: I apply a machine learning clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model to an aggregation of expert ranking data provided by Fantasypros.  The algorithm finds natural tiers and clusters within the data. The charts that result visualize the tiers and can help you draft your team.

Here are the charts for each position (also updated today, 8/21):


The spreadsheet version is available here: Boris Chen's Top 200 Tiers - Google Spreadsheet

Here are some insights I've gathered from looking at the data: 

(1) Quarter back is deeper this year than last year.  Last year we had 12 solid quarterbacks, this year we have 15, going down to Ben Roethlisberger. This doesn't even include players like Tannehill who many have called as underrated this season.  Outside of the top three, there are high expectations from Stafford and Luck in tier 2.  If none of those top five drop to you, I would argue there is no need to look at quarterback until round 10 or 11, as at least some of the top 15 should should be available then.

(2) Running back looks thinner than last year.  We have 15-20 reliable starters, falling off at either Andre Ellington at 15 or Rashad Jennings at 20.  Last year we were looking at 22 solid running backs in the preseason.  If you don't get two of the top 20 this year, you should plan on grabbing a few extra in the mid rounds.

(3) Wide receiver appears to be deeper this year. The top 4 tiers (24 wide receivers) through Desean Jackson should be a lock for solid production.  I also expect around half of the tier 7 and tier 8 receivers to become solid WR3s.  

(4) Taking a look at expert accuracies on fantasypros, it's interesting to see kicker preseason/draft accuracy trump defense preseason accuracy.  This suggests that it may be worth considering taking K in round 14 and DST in round 15 (aside from the tier 1 DSTs).

Also, Jay Zheng has created a great draft tool based on this data which I am considering personally using, check it out here.


Top 200:


Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Calvin Johnson
Tier 2: Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray
Tier 3: A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Giovani Bernard
Tier 4: Le'Veon Bell, Jordy Nelson, Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy, Peyton Manning, Alshon Jeffery, Doug Martin, Antonio Brown
Tier 5: Aaron Rodgers, Andre Ellington, Drew Brees, Randall Cobb
Tier 6: Keenan Allen, Vincent Jackson, Toby Gerhart
Tier 7: Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, Ryan Mathews, C.J. Spiller, Victor Cruz, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon, Roddy White
Tier 8: Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Bush, Rashad Jennings
Tier 9: Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, Joique Bell, Michael Floyd, Matthew Stafford
Tier 10: Cordarrelle Patterson, Torrey Smith, Wes Welker, Shane Vereen, Bishop Sankey, DeSean Jackson, Andrew Luck, Ben Tate, Percy Harvin

Tier 11: Jordan Cameron, Chris Johnson, Mike Wallace, Ray Rice, Matt Ryan, Vernon Davis, Ty Hilton, Lamar Miller, Trent Richardson, Nick Foles, Robert Griffin III, Kendall Wright, Cam Newton, Marques Colston, Tom Brady
Tier 12: Stevan Ridley, Jeremy Maclin, Tony Romo, Eric Decker, Steven Jackson, Julian Edelman
Tier 13: Terrance Williams, Golden Tate, Jason Witten, Colin Kaepernick, Pierre Thomas, Jay Cutler, Greg Olsen, Emmanuel Sanders, Fred Jackson, Reggie Wayne, Jordan Reed, Maurice Jones-Drew
Tier 14: Dennis Pitta, Sammy Watkins, Kyle Rudolph, Rueben Randle, Russell Wilson, Brandin Cooks, Bernard Pierce, Dwayne Bowe, Philip Rivers
Tier 15: Cecil Shorts, Mike Evans, Terrance West, DeAngelo Williams, Kelvin Benjamin, Zach Ertz, DeAndre Hopkins, Jeremy Hill, Ben Roethlisberger, Danny Woodhead, Justin Hunter
Tier 16: Riley Cooper, Anquan Boldin, Darren Sproles, Darren McFadden
Tier 17: Mark Ingram, Christopher Ivory, Martellus Bennett, Carlos Hyde, Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, Tavon Austin, Charles Clay, Markus Wheaton, Andre Williams, Brian Hartline, Andy Dalton, Knowshon Moreno, Devonta Freeman, Seattle Seahawks
Tier 18: Kenny Stills, Ladarius Green, Ryan Tannehill, LeGarrette Blount, Carson Palmer, Aaron Dobson


Tier 16: Jordan Matthews, Jarrett Boykin, Danny Amendola, Ahmad Bradshaw, Doug Baldwin, Khiry Robinson, Shonn Greene, Jonathan Stewart, Christine Michael, Heath Miller, James Jones, Kenny Britt, Marvin Jones, Josh Gordon
Tier 17: Steve Smith, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Delanie Walker, Dwayne Allen, Marqise Lee, Tyler Eifert, Antonio Gates, Josh McCown, San Francisco 49ers, Lance Dunbar, Andrew Hawkins, Rod Streater, Johnny Manziel, James White, Malcom Floyd
Tier 18: Joe Flacco, Knile Davis, Donald Brown, Eric Ebron, Robert Woods, Garrett Graham, Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams, Carolina Panthers, James Starks, Jake Locker, Jared Cook, Mike Williams, Odell Beckham Jr., Roy Helu, Harry Douglas, Travis Kelce, Jerricho Cotchery, Ronnie Hillman, Tre Mason, Andre Holmes, Steve Johnson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Miles Austin
Tier 19: Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals, Coby Fleener, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, New England Patriots, C.J. Anderson, Bryce Brown, Dexter McCluster, Stepfan Taylor, Arizona Cardinals


Half PPR:

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham, Eddie Lacy, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant
Tier 2: DeMarco Murray, Montee Ball, A.J. Green, Marshawn Lynch, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Giovani Bernard
Tier 3: Jordy Nelson, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy, Arian Foster, Alshon Jeffery, Doug Martin
Tier 4: Randall Cobb, Peyton Manning
Tier 5: Alfred Morris, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Pierre Garcon, Vincent Jackson, Reggie Bush, Julius Thomas, Andre Johnson, Keenan Allen, Victor Cruz, Rob Gronkowski, Ryan Mathews, Roddy White
Tier 6: C.J. Spiller, Larry Fitzgerald, Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings, Michael Crabtree
Tier 7: Wes Welker, Shane Vereen, Joique Bell, Matthew Stafford
Tier 8: Michael Floyd, Torrey Smith, Frank Gore, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ben Tate, Ray Rice
Tier 9: Chris Johnson, Andrew Luck, Bishop Sankey, Percy Harvin, Kendall Wright, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Ty Hilton, Julian Edelman, Vernon Davis, Lamar Miller, Jordan Cameron, Marques Colston
Tier 10: Nick Foles, Pierre Thomas, Matt Ryan

Tier 11: Eric Decker, Robert Griffin III, Trent Richardson, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Jeremy Maclin, Steven Jackson
Tier 12: Jason Witten, Fred Jackson, Reggie Wayne, Golden Tate, Jordan Reed, Terrance Williams, Tony Romo, Maurice Jones-Drew, Dennis Pitta, Greg Olsen, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Emmanuel Sanders, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler
Tier 13: Rueben Randle, Kyle Rudolph, Sammy Watkins, Cecil Shorts, Dwayne Bowe, Bernard Pierce, Russell Wilson
Tier 14: Brandin Cooks, Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, DeAndre Hopkins, Anquan Boldin, DeAngelo Williams, Riley Cooper, Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Terrance West, Brian Hartline, Zach Ertz, Ben Roethlisberger, Justin Hunter, Greg Jennings, Darren McFadden
Tier 15: Mark Ingram, Martellus Bennett, Charles Clay, Markus Wheaton, Knowshon Moreno, Jeremy Hill, Seattle Seahawks, Tavon Austin, Hakeem Nicks, Christopher Ivory, Devonta Freeman, Aaron Dobson
Tier 16: Steve Smith, Doug Baldwin, Carlos Hyde, Jarrett Boykin, Kenny Stills, Heath Miller, Andy Dalton, Jordan Matthews, Danny Amendola, Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Williams, Marvin Jones, Jonathan Stewart

Tier 17: Josh Gordon
Tier 18: Shonn Greene, Ladarius Green, Kenny Britt, Christine Michael, Khiry Robinson, Lance Dunbar, James Jones, Marqise Lee, LeGarrette Blount, Delanie Walker, Rod Streater, Andrew Hawkins, Robert Woods, Antonio Gates, Ryan Tannehill, Roy Helu, Knile Davis, Dwayne Allen, Garrett Graham, Tyler Eifert, Jerricho Cotchery, Carson Palmer, Travis Kelce, Steve Johnson, Ronnie Hillman, Odell Beckham Jr., Donald Brown, Malcom Floyd, James Starks, Harry Douglas, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Josh McCown, Kenbrell Thompkins, Miles Austin, Johnny Manziel, Andre Brown, Mohamed Sanu
Tier 19: NA, 
Tier 20: Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, Mike Williams, Dexter McCluster, Andre Holmes, Jacquizz Rodgers, San Francisco 49ers, Tre Mason, Coby Fleener, C.J. Anderson, James White, Bryce Brown, St. Louis Rams, Cody Latimer, Carolina Panthers, Brandon LaFell, Jordan Todman, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Denarius Moore


PPR:

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant
Tier 2: Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, Montee Ball, A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Marshawn Lynch
Tier 3: Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Andre Ellington, Alshon Jeffery, Arian Foster
Tier 4: Zac Stacy, Randall Cobb, Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, Pierre Garcon, Andre Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, Peyton Manning, Julius Thomas
Tier 5: Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Roddy White, Keenan Allen, Ryan Mathews, Alfred Morris
Tier 6: Michael Crabtree, C.J. Spiller, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker
Tier 7: Toby Gerhart, Joique Bell
Tier 8: Michael Floyd, Ray Rice, Cordarrelle Patterson, Matthew Stafford, Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Ben Tate, Chris Johnson, Julian Edelman
Tier 9: Bishop Sankey, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace, Pierre Thomas, Lamar Miller, DeSean Jackson, Ty Hilton, Andrew Luck, Frank Gore, Jordan Cameron
Tier 10: Marques Colston, Vernon Davis, Eric Decker, Danny Woodhead

Tier 11: Nick Foles, Trent Richardson, Matt Ryan, Dennis Pitta, Reggie Wayne, Jason Witten, Jeremy Maclin, Fred Jackson, Robert Griffin III, Jordan Reed, Tom Brady, Terrance Williams, Cam Newton, Golden Tate, Greg Olsen, Steven Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 12: Maurice Jones-Drew, Stevan Ridley, Kyle Rudolph, Tony Romo, Darren Sproles, Rueben Randle, Sammy Watkins, Dwayne Bowe, Bernard Pierce, Colin Kaepernick, Cecil Shorts, Jay Cutler
Tier 13: Brandin Cooks, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 14: Brian Hartline, Russell Wilson, DeAngelo Williams, Philip Rivers, Anquan Boldin, Mike Evans, Riley Cooper, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Jennings, Zach Ertz, Darren McFadden, Terrance West, Justin Hunter
Tier 15: Seattle Seahawks, Knowshon Moreno, Markus Wheaton, Charles Clay, Martellus Bennett, Ben Roethlisberger, Tavon Austin, Doug Baldwin, Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram, Jarrett Boykin, Steve Smith, Jeremy Hill, Hakeem Nicks
Tier 16: Aaron Dobson, Christopher Ivory, Heath Miller, Danny Amendola, Marvin Jones, Jordan Matthews, Kenny Stills, Carlos Hyde, Lance Dunbar, Ahmad Bradshaw, Marqise Lee, James Jones

Tier 17: Rod Streater, Ladarius Green, Andrew Hawkins, Andy Dalton, Andre Williams, Delanie Walker, Khiry Robinson, Robert Woods, Kenny Britt, Christine Michael, Shonn Greene, Jonathan Stewart, Knile Davis, Roy Helu, Josh Gordon
Tier 18: NA, 
Tier 19: Antonio Gates, Garrett Graham, Jerricho Cotchery, LeGarrette Blount, Harry Douglas, Tyler Eifert, Jared Cook, Dexter McCluster, Steve Johnson, Mike Williams, Odell Beckham Jr., Dwayne Allen, Ryan Tannehill, Eric Ebron, Jacquizz Rodgers, Travis Kelce, Ronnie Hillman, Andre Holmes, Malcom Floyd, Carson Palmer, Jonathan Grimes, Miles Austin, Kenbrell Thompkins, St. Louis Rams, Owen Daniels, Andre Brown
Tier 20: Bryce Brown, Mohamed Sanu
Tier 21: Donald Brown, Mike Tolbert, James Starks, Tre Mason, James White, Cody Latimer, San Francisco 49ers, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, C.J. Anderson, Lance Moore, Nate Washington, Brandon LaFell, Coby Fleener, Carolina Panthers, Charles Sims, Denarius Moore


Monday, August 11, 2014

Preseason Top 200 Spreadsheet

Here is an update of the top 200, now also in spreadsheet format (all data are from fantasypros, aside from Tier, which is appended to the end):

Boris Chen's Fantasy Football Tiers - Predraft Spreadsheet [Standard, PPR, Half-PPR]

My advice for drafting with this model is as follows:
1) Always prefer higher tier players.
2) When choosing between two players of the same tier, diversify your picks across positions and teams.
3) Never go into the draft set in picking up certain positions.  Let the mistakes of others dictate what you pick by sticking with high tier players.

See last week's post for charts for individual positions.

Top 200 Standard:



Top 200 PPR:




Top 200 Half-PPR:




Wednesday, August 6, 2014

2014 Preseason - Top 200

Here is my top 200 for 2014, split into 22 tiers.

Position specific:

The QB, RB, WR, and TE charts will be hosted at NYTimes. To get around the NYTimes paywalluse the links here (right click + open in new tab):

Drafting a Fantasy Football Team, With Help From Advanced Statistics

Unfortunately the paywall is beyond my control, but as long as you enter through external links (like the ones above), you'll always be able to view them for free.

If this is your first time here, the tiers are determined using a machine learning algorithm which reads from fantasypros data to smartly cluster each player into their natural tiers. You can read the details of the algorithm here or last year's article here.

Overall top 200:

Tier 1-10

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Calvin Johnson
Tier 2: Demaryius Thomas, Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant, DeMarco Murray, Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch
Tier 3: A.J. Green, Le'Veon Bell, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Arian Foster, Giovani Bernard
Tier 4: Peyton Manning, Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, Zac Stacy, Alfred Morris, Antonio Brown, Aaron Rodgers, Doug Martin, Drew Brees, Andre Ellington, Randall Cobb
Tier 5: Keenan Allen, Toby Gerhart, Vincent Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Rob Gronkowski, Ryan Mathews, Andre Johnson, Victor Cruz, Pierre Garcon, Julius Thomas
Tier 6: Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Bush, Roddy White, Rashad Jennings
Tier 7: Michael Crabtree, Matthew Stafford, Wes Welker, Frank Gore, Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, Joique Bell, Bishop Sankey
Tier 8: Andrew Luck, Shane Vereen, Percy Harvin, DeSean Jackson, Torrey Smith
Tier 9: Jordan Cameron, Chris Johnson, Ben Tate, Mike Wallace, Trent Richardson, Nick Foles, Ray Rice, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton
Tier 10: Kendall Wright, Ty Hilton, Stevan Ridley, Lamar Miller

Tier 11-18

Tier 11: Marques Colston, Vernon Davis, Jeremy Maclin, Steven Jackson, Tony Romo, Tom Brady
Tier 12: Pierre Thomas, Jason Witten, Eric Decker, Terrance Williams, Julian Edelman, Greg Olsen, Colin Kaepernick, Golden Tate, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 13: Reggie Wayne, Jordan Reed, Rueben Randle, Jay Cutler, Fred Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Sammy Watkins, Dwayne Bowe, Kyle Rudolph, Dennis Pitta, Russell Wilson
Tier 14: Cecil Shorts, Mike Evans, Philip Rivers, Terrance West, Brandin Cooks
Tier 15: Riley Cooper, DeAngelo Williams, Danny Woodhead, Marvin Jones, Anquan Boldin, Darren Sproles, Bernard Pierce, DeAndre Hopkins, Ben Roethlisberger, Darren McFadden, Jeremy Hill
Tier 16: Zach Ertz, Christopher Ivory, Martellus Bennett, Tavon Austin, Brian Hartline, Charles Clay, Hakeem Nicks, Justin Hunter, Knowshon Moreno, Devonta Freeman, James Jones, Greg Jennings
Tier 17: Kelvin Benjamin, Kenny Stills, Seattle Seahawks, Andy Dalton, Jarrett Boykin, Markus Wheaton, Christine Michael, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram
Tier 18: Ryan Tannehill, Ladarius Green, Heath Miller, Jordan Matthews, Jonathan Stewart

Tier 18-22
Tier 18: Khiry Robinson, Josh Gordon
Tier 19: Carson Palmer, Steve Smith, Doug Baldwin, Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers, Eli Manning, Delanie Walker, Shonn Greene, Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Williams, Antonio Gates, Kenny Britt, Andrew Hawkins, Johnny Manziel, Donald Brown, James White
Tier 20: Robert Woods, LeGarrette Blount, Josh McCown, Tyler Eifert, Dwayne Allen, Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, Marqise Lee, Odell Beckham Jr., Rod Streater, Joe Flacco, Garrett Graham, Knile Davis, Harry Douglas, Andre Brown, Tre Mason, Charles Sims, Steve Johnson, Mike Williams, Jake Locker, Malcom Floyd, David Wilson
Tier 21: St. Louis Rams, Carolina Panthers, Lance Dunbar, Sam Bradford, Jerricho Cotchery, James Starks, Stepfan Taylor, E.J. Manuel, Bryce Brown, Miles Austin
Tier 22: Roy Helu, Cincinnati Bengals, Coby Fleener, C.J. Anderson, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Jacquizz Rodgers, Mike Tolbert, Arizona Cardinals, Teddy Bridgewater





PPR charts:

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant
Tier 2: Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, Giovani Bernard, Montee Ball, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 3: Antonio Brown, Marshawn Lynch, Andre Ellington, Jordy Nelson, Arian Foster, Alshon Jeffery
Tier 4: Randall Cobb, Zac Stacy, Doug Martin, Rob Gronkowski, Pierre Garcon, Andre Johnson, Reggie Bush, Peyton Manning
Tier 5: Julius Thomas, Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, C.J. Spiller, Keenan Allen, Drew Brees, Shane Vereen, Ryan Mathews
Tier 6: NA, 
Tier 7: Roddy White, Alfred Morris, Wes Welker, Larry Fitzgerald, Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings, Michael Crabtree, Joique Bell
Tier 8: Michael Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kendall Wright, Pierre Thomas, Matthew Stafford, Julian Edelman, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Bishop Sankey, Torrey Smith, Percy Harvin
Tier 9: Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson, Lamar Miller, Ben Tate, Andrew Luck, Jordan Cameron, Marques Colston, Trent Richardson, Ty Hilton, Frank Gore
Tier 10: Eric Decker, Danny Woodhead

Tier 11: Nick Foles, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, Matt Ryan, Greg Olsen, Robert Griffin III, Steven Jackson
Tier 12: Dennis Pitta, Jordan Reed, Jeremy Maclin, Cam Newton, Terrance Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Reggie Wayne, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Stevan Ridley, Golden Tate, Fred Jackson
Tier 13: Dwayne Bowe, Maurice Jones-Drew, Rueben Randle, Darren Sproles, Colin Kaepernick, Sammy Watkins, Cecil Shorts
Tier 14: Marvin Jones, Kyle Rudolph, DeAndre Hopkins, Bernard Pierce, Jay Cutler
Tier 15: Brandin Cooks, Brian Hartline, Mike Evans, Philip Rivers, Terrance West, Russell Wilson, DeAngelo Williams, Riley Cooper, Anquan Boldin, Darren McFadden
Tier 16: Tavon Austin, Seattle Seahawks, Charles Clay, Greg Jennings, Martellus Bennett, Devonta Freeman, Jeremy Hill, Knowshon Moreno
Tier 17: Kelvin Benjamin, Ben Roethlisberger, Jarrett Boykin, Hakeem Nicks, Zach Ertz, Markus Wheaton, Justin Hunter, James Jones, Doug Baldwin, Steve Smith, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Kenny Stills, Christine Michael
Tier 18: Christopher Ivory, Jordan Matthews, Delanie Walker, Heath Miller, Mark Ingram, Antonio Gates, Robert Woods

Tier 18: Khiry Robinson, Andrew Hawkins, Josh Gordon
Tier 19: Lance Dunbar, Carlos Hyde, Rod Streater, Shonn Greene, Marqise Lee, Ladarius Green, Ahmad Bradshaw, Harry Douglas, Andy Dalton, Knile Davis, Jonathan Stewart, Andre Brown, Garrett Graham
Tier 20: Jared Cook, Jacquizz Rodgers, Charles Sims, Roy Helu, Eric Ebron, Donald Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Jerricho Cotchery, Kenny Britt, Tyler Eifert, Steve Johnson, Tre Mason, Andre Williams, Bryce Brown, C.J. Anderson, Eli Manning, Johnny Manziel, Owen Daniels, Andre Holmes
Tier 21: Mike Williams, Ryan Tannehill, Dexter McCluster, LeGarrette Blount, Dwayne Allen, Mike Tolbert, Stepfan Taylor, San Francisco 49ers, Alex Smith, Malcom Floyd, James White, Miles Austin, Nate Washington, Brandon LaFell, Carson Palmer, David Wilson, St. Louis Rams
Tier 22: Denarius Moore, Cody Latimer, Carolina Panthers, Coby Fleener, James Starks, Allen Robinson, Andre Roberts, Jeremy Kerley

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson
Tier 2: Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, Montee Ball, Giovani Bernard
Tier 3: Le'Veon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, Andre Ellington
Tier 4: Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, Zac Stacy, C.J. Spiller
Tier 5: Shane Vereen, Ryan Mathews, Alfred Morris, Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings, Joique Bell
Tier 6: Pierre Thomas, Chris Johnson
Tier 7: Ray Rice, Bishop Sankey, Ben Tate, Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Trent Richardson
Tier 8: Danny Woodhead, Steven Jackson
Tier 9: Fred Jackson, Stevan Ridley, Darren Sproles, Maurice Jones-Drew
Tier 10: Bernard Pierce, DeAngelo Williams, Darren McFadden, Terrance West

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones
Tier 2: Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon
Tier 3: Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker, Michael Crabtree
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright, Torrey Smith, Cordarrelle Patterson, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace, Julian Edelman
Tier 5: DeSean Jackson, Marques Colston, Ty Hilton, Eric Decker
Tier 6: Reggie Wayne, Jeremy Maclin, Terrance Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Dwayne Bowe, Golden Tate
Tier 7: Cecil Shorts, Rueben Randle, Sammy Watkins
Tier 8: Marvin Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Hartline, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Greg Jennings, Riley Cooper, Anquan Boldin
Tier 9: Tavon Austin, James Jones, Hakeem Nicks, Kelvin Benjamin, Justin Hunter, Jarrett Boykin, Markus Wheaton, Aaron Dobson, Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, Doug Baldwin, Steve Smith
Tier 10: Andrew Hawkins

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas
Tier 2: Jordan Cameron, Greg Olsen, Jason Witten, Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph
Tier 3: Charles Clay, Martellus Bennett
Tier 4: Zach Ertz, Heath Miller, Delanie Walker, Antonio Gates
Tier 5: Garrett Graham, Jared Cook, Ladarius Green, Tyler Eifert, Dwayne Allen, Eric Ebron
Tier 6: Owen Daniels, Travis Kelce

Shoutout to /r/Beer4TheBeerGod for his incredibly insightful observation about in-season accuracy in 2013 only varying by 10%.

Monday, July 21, 2014

First charts for 2014

Here are some early charts for 2014 - I'm excited to run these weekly for everyone again this season.  I will be updating these more often as draft season progresses. If this is your first time here, please read this summary: nyti.ms/1mzyQaN.  

Welcome back and good luck preparing for your drafts!







Monday, March 17, 2014

Pre-draft Baseball Tier Charts

Here are some updated tier charts for your fantasy baseball drafts (both position specific and overall charts). Data has been refreshed as of 3/17/2014.

- Ranks are imported from fantasypros.

- Tiers are generated using a Gaussian mixture model, which discover which players are ranked similarly. For a detailed explanation, see my introduction of the model for football (link).

- Tiers are subjective, but I consider players on the same tier found by this algorithm to be largely interchangeable.

- I've adjusted the depth of the charts based on feedback from last time. Always looking for more feedback which you can provide below or on twitter (link).

Overall:





Position specific:

1B
 2B
 3B
 C
 DH
 OF
 RP
 SP
 SS