Fantasy Football Week 12 Tiers

Week 12 byes: Carolina, Pittsburg

Introduction


In this fantasy football model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a statistical clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up each week. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

Tier Charts

Charts are on the menu on the right.
Week 12 - QB RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST

Tips

(1) NYTimes link: [Week 12 in-depth commentary
(2) Favor higher tier players. 
(3) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. If experts are 50/50, there's no telling.


Rest of Season

You can find rest of season charts here.
ROS: QB - RB - WR - TE - K - DST

FAQ:

(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts.  Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. Flex tiers are always one of the more debatable charts.

(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.

(3) When do you update the charts?
Every day. Check the last updated timestamp.

Fantasy Football Week 11 Trade Value Chart

Here's my weekly trade value chart. Values are calculated from select rest of season data from Fantasypros.com, and roughly represent value based on a 12 team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE league.

All leagues are different. I recommend adjusting them for your own league dynamics and settings -- add X points to quarterbacks if quarterbacks are in higher demand in your league; add Y points to wide receivers if you start 3 wide receivers. Margin of debate is +/- 1.5 points, so I would consider any trade within 3 points to be fair.

This is a beta experimental chart. Formulas are still being tweaked, especially for PPR. It is extremely difficult to capture trade value across positions and for transactions involving 3 or more players. Players like Josh Gordon will have wildly different values for different teams and leagues.

Method. I start with Fantasypros rest of season rankings from highly accurate experts. Within a position, trade value is inversely proportional to average ranking. The list is then scaled based on 12 team roster depth so that borderline free agents are worth zero (since you can pick them up for free). Values are then passed through mean shifted logistic function, which gives higher value to the upper quintile. This is done to scale the values properly for  2-for-1 trades.

Week 11 Trade Values:

PlayerValuePPRPlayerValuePPR
DeMarco Murray37.634.7Keenan Allen6.44.4
Matt Forte36.734.6Bishop Sankey6.36.2
Jamaal Charles36.433.3Colin Kaepernick6.38.4
Demaryius Thomas35.535.2Steven Jackson6.35.0
Calvin Johnson34.931.9Tre Mason6.26.2
Arian Foster34.232.4Trent Richardson6.25.2
Marshawn Lynch34.028.8Matt Ryan6.18.2
Antonio Brown33.833.6Ben Tate6.05.0
Jordy Nelson33.232.4DeAndre Hopkins5.84.3
Le'Veon Bell33.132.1Delanie Walker5.69.0
Peyton Manning33.029.2Larry Donnell5.48.4
Rob Gronkowski33.030.4Darren McFadden5.34.6
Jimmy Graham31.929.8Mike Evans5.38.0
Julio Jones30.828.2Ronnie Hillman5.33.4
LeSean McCoy30.825.2Terrance West5.04.0
Dez Bryant30.529.2Dwayne Allen4.96.5
Eddie Lacy30.426.1Rueben Randle4.63.7
Julius Thomas29.828.4Larry Fitzgerald4.53.8
Andrew Luck29.626.4Pierre Garcon4.54.6
Andre Ellington29.527.7Darren Sproles4.36.6
Aaron Rodgers28.425.6Martavis Bryant4.33.0
Randall Cobb27.726.4Jordan Reed4.16.8
Giovani Bernard27.025.2Jay Cutler4.06.1
Emmanuel Sanders25.927.3Brandon LaFell3.96.0
A.J. Green25.723.3Mohamed Sanu3.86.5
Jeremy Maclin25.525.7Adrian Peterson3.79.4
Ty Hilton25.225.7Torrey Smith3.72.9
Alfred Morris24.012.6Michael Floyd3.62.6
Brandon Marshall23.522.1Cam Newton3.55.5
Justin Forsett23.422.3Branden Oliver3.38.0
Drew Brees23.121.6C.J. Anderson3.36.0
Ahmad Bradshaw21.921.4Eric Decker3.22.5
Lamar Miller21.317.2Reggie Wayne3.25.0
Alshon Jeffery20.317.6Charles Sims3.02.3
Greg Olsen20.317.8Jordan Cameron3.04.3
Mark Ingram19.714.1Doug Martin2.92.3
Antonio Gates19.220.7Pierre Thomas2.93.5
Martellus Bennett18.517.8Terrance Williams2.92.7
Kelvin Benjamin18.319.1Ryan Tannehill2.64.5
Tom Brady17.717.7Cecil Shorts2.52.0
Rashad Jennings17.415.4Mark Sanchez2.54.4
Frank Gore17.010.8Michael Crabtree2.42.6
Sammy Watkins17.016.4Vernon Davis2.42.1
Fred Jackson16.018.8Chris Johnson2.21.7
Joique Bell15.510.8Anquan Boldin2.11.7
Shane Vereen15.517.9Marques Colston2.01.7
Mike Wallace14.711.4Matt Asiata2.01.7
Denard Robinson13.310.0Carlos Hyde1.91.7
Ryan Mathews13.210.0Eli Manning1.93.6
Josh Gordon12.711.4Knile Davis1.92.2
DeSean Jackson12.28.4Andre Williams1.71.7
Christopher Ivory11.76.2Jonathan Stewart1.71.7
Jerick McKinnon11.714.3Jordan Matthews1.61.7
Vincent Jackson11.710.3Cordarrelle Patterson1.41.7
Golden Tate11.18.3Kendall Wright1.41.7
Russell Wilson11.012.5Justin Hunter1.31.7
Roddy White10.513.8Doug Baldwin1.21.7
Matthew Stafford10.011.6Zac Stacy1.11.7
Odell Beckham Jr.9.711.7Alex Smith1.02.3
Philip Rivers9.711.4Andre Holmes1.01.7
Ben Roethlisberger9.611.3Bobby Rainey1.01.7
Brandin Cooks9.413.3James Starks0.91.7
Travis Kelce9.010.8Joe Flacco0.81.9
Reggie Bush8.58.5Malcom Floyd0.81.7
Julian Edelman8.411.6Robert Griffin III0.82.0
Steve Smith7.710.0Wes Welker0.71.7
Andre Johnson7.66.5John Brown0.71.7
Percy Harvin7.56.9Andy Dalton0.61.7
Montee Ball6.94.9Harry Douglas0.61.7
Jason Witten6.69.2Kyle Orton0.61.7
Jeremy Hill6.64.1Kyle Rudolph0.61.7
Tony Romo6.68.7Michael Vick0.61.7

Fantasy Football Week 11 Tiers

Week 11 byes: Baltimore, Dallas, Jacksonville, New York Jets

Introduction


In this fantasy football model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a statistical clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up each week. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

Tier Charts

Charts are on the menu on the right.
Week 11QB | WR | RB | TE | Flex | K | DST

Tips

(1) NYTimes link: [Week 11 in-depth commentary]
(2) Favor higher tier players. 
(3) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. If experts are 50/50, there's no telling.


Rest of Season

You can find rest of season charts here.
ROS: QB - RB - WR - TE - K - DST

Week 11 Trade Values:


Select Week 11 Questions and Answers

Thoughts on Odell Beckham and Kelvin Benjamin this week?

Beckham vs Benjamin is a very fruitful debate actually. I have both on my roster in two different leagues. Clearly Cam was not himself against the Eagles on Monday Night. There were some twitter whispers about him not being entirely healthy with two bad wheels, but we do know the entire offense was dreadful, and that's against a team that isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse. Benjamin alone also has had drop issues all year; I can remember at least 3 red zone drops. However, the opportunity is there. He is arguably the top red zone pass option over Olsen, and the Panthers clearly don't have good running options this year. Say what you want about garbage time but it's always been a factor in fantasy and this is not the first or the second time Benjamin has put up most of the points in garbage time. He makes the drops but he also makes ridiculous catches each week.

I'm not sure I could list 20 or even 15 receivers I'd rather draft before Beckham if I were drafting today. The kid is a stud making plays left and right. He's made his case for "matchup proof" label, torching DAL, IND, and SEA -- while lined up against Sherman for most the game -- in the last 3 games. I don't really trust Eli, but there are a lot mid tier quarterbacks struggling as much as if not more than Eli recently; Cam, Kaepernick, Ben, Cutler, Wilson, Rivers... basically all of them. Benjamin does get a great matchup against ATL. Beckham is against SF but who cares who he's facing at this point; he passed the Sherman test with an A+. Both are excellent options and this should be a high scoring WR week for the top 22 or 23 guys. I don't think it's obvious you sit Beckham unless it's for a Tier 1 or 2 guy (Sanders, Hilton, Maclin range). I'm giving Beckham a good chance to move up to tier 3 by the end of the week in the Benjamin/DeSean/Golden Tate/Mike Evans range.

Why does Denver top the DST rankings?

If you've watched Denver and St. Louis play this year, I don't think this surprising at all. Denver's front line is deadly fast, and they have the numbers to back it (67 rush yards/game, which is the best in the league). I can't think of CB duo that out classes Talib and Harris off the top of my head. We're talking about a top 5 defense against a bottom 4 offense. The Broncos allows only 314.1 yards/game, good for #5 only behind DET, SF, SEA, and MIA. The Rams have only scored 163 points all season, which is 4th worst behind only JAX, TEN, and OAK (and earlier this year they had Brian Quick). Some teams that have scored more points than the Rams: TB, MIN, NYJ. Doesn't get much better than this, gentlemen.


FAQ:

(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts.  Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. Flex tiers are always one of the more debatable charts.

(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.

(3) When do you update the charts?
Every day. Check the last updated timestamp.