In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results can be visualized on a series of charts that can help you decide your line up each week.
For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.
Week 1 tips:
(1) Always stick with higher tier players.
(2) When choosing between players of the same tier, diversify your starters across teams. Generally speaking, these are coin flip situations.
(3) Commentary on tiers - Link: Fantasy Football: Week 1 Player Tiers
Standard:
(To avoid paywall issues, right click each > open in new tab from these links above)
Standard Flex (only Flex25 - Flex85 are shown):
Tier 1: Larry Fitzgerald, Frank Gore, Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, Michael Crabtree
Tier 2: Alfred Morris, Roddy White, Le'Veon Bell, Randall Cobb, Keenan Allen, Doug Martin
Tier 3: Rob Gronkowski, Michael Floyd, Pierre Garcon, Percy Harvin
Tier 4: Toby Gerhart, Cordarrelle Patterson, C.J. Spiller, Torrey Smith, Emmanuel Sanders, Rashad Jennings
Tier 5: Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Eric Decker
Tier 6: Ben Tate, DeSean Jackson, Shane Vereen, Ty Hilton, Chris Johnson, Julian Edelman, Jeremy Maclin, Ryan Mathews
Tier 7: Joique Bell, Kendall Wright, Greg Olsen, Mike Wallace, Jason Witten
Tier 8: Golden Tate, Jordan Reed, Reggie Wayne
Tier 9: Steven Jackson, Terrance Williams, Dennis Pitta, Kyle Rudolph, Bernard Pierce
Tier 10: Fred Jackson, Zach Ertz, Pierre Thomas, Rueben Randle, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, Stevan Ridley
Tier 11: Cecil Shorts, Trent Richardson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Anquan Boldin, Martellus Bennett, DeAndre Hopkins, Riley Cooper
PPR RB
Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, DeMarco Murray, Andre Ellington, Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard
Tier 3: Le'Veon Bell, Zac Stacy, Reggie Bush, Doug Martin
Tier 4: Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings, C.J. Spiller, Frank Gore, Alfred Morris, Toby Gerhart
Tier 5: Chris Johnson, Joique Bell, Ryan Mathews, Ben Tate, Pierre Thomas
Tier 6: Bernard Pierce, Steven Jackson, Fred Jackson, Danny Woodhead
Tier 7: Darren Sproles, Maurice Jones-Drew, Trent Richardson, Knowshon Moreno, Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram, Stevan Ridley
Tier 8: Shonn Greene, Bishop Sankey, Dexter McCluster
PPR WR
Tier 1: Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Julio Jones
Tier 2: Antonio Brown, Andre Johnson, Alshon Jeffery
Tier 3: Jordy Nelson, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Crabtree, Pierre Garcon, Roddy White, Randall Cobb, Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd
Tier 4: Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman, Kendall Wright, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Marques Colston, Emmanuel Sanders, Cordarrelle Patterson
Tier 5: Ty Hilton
Tier 6: Mike Wallace, Reggie Wayne, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Golden Tate
Tier 7: Terrance Williams, Cecil Shorts, Rueben Randle, Brian Hartline, DeAndre Hopkins, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Justin Hunter
Tier 8: Markus Wheaton, Riley Cooper, Greg Jennings, Sammy Watkins
Tier 9: Mike Evans, James Jones, Danny Amendola, Steve Smith, Doug Baldwin, Kenny Britt, Hakeem Nicks
Tier 10: Andrew Hawkins, Marqise Lee, Jarrett Boykin, Aaron Dobson, Rod Streater, Tavon Austin, Harry Douglas
PPR TE
Tier 2: Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Dennis Pitta, Jason Witten, Kyle Rudolph
Tier 3: Zach Ertz, Charles Clay, Martellus Bennett, Antonio Gates, Heath Miller
Tier 4: Travis Kelce, Delanie Walker, Dwayne Allen, Ladarius Green, Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert, Garrett Graham
Tier 5: Owen Daniels, Jace Amaro, Coby Fleener, Eric Ebron
Tier 2: Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd, Giovani Bernard
Tier 3: Julian Edelman, Jordan Cameron, Percy Harvin, Le'Veon Bell, Kendall Wright, Zac Stacy
Tier 4: Torrey Smith, Cordarrelle Patterson, Eric Decker, Marques Colston, Emmanuel Sanders, Reggie Bush, Vernon Davis, Doug Martin, Jordan Reed
Tier 5: Ty Hilton, Greg Olsen, Mike Wallace, Shane Vereen, Reggie Wayne, Dennis Pitta
Tier 6: DeSean Jackson, Rashad Jennings, Jeremy Maclin, Jason Witten, C.J. Spiller, Alfred Morris, Kyle Rudolph, Frank Gore
Tier 7: Golden Tate, Toby Gerhart
Tier 8: Chris Johnson, Terrance Williams, Brian Hartline, Cecil Shorts, Joique Bell, Rueben Randle, Zach Ertz, Anquan Boldin, Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 9: Ryan Mathews, Ben Tate, Pierre Thomas, Martellus Bennett, Justin Hunter
Tier 10: Charles Clay, Riley Cooper, Markus Wheaton, Greg Jennings, Heath Miller
0.5 PPR RB
Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch, Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster, DeMarco Murray
Tier 3: Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 4: Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush
Tier 5: Rashad Jennings, C.J. Spiller, Shane Vereen, Frank Gore, Toby Gerhart
Tier 6: Ryan Mathews, Chris Johnson, Joique Bell, Ben Tate
Tier 7: Pierre Thomas, Steven Jackson, Bernard Pierce, Fred Jackson
Tier 8: Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller
Tier 9: Bishop Sankey, Stevan Ridley, Maurice Jones-Drew, Danny Woodhead
Tier 10: Knowshon Moreno, Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram, Shonn Greene, DeAngelo Williams
0.5 PPR WR
Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, A.J. Green
Tier 2: Alshon Jeffery, Antonio Brown, Andre Johnson, Jordy Nelson
Tier 3: Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Michael Crabtree, Randall Cobb, Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Keenan Allen, Michael Floyd
Tier 4: Percy Harvin, Torrey Smith, Julian Edelman, Cordarrelle Patterson, Marques Colston, Eric Decker, Kendall Wright, Emmanuel Sanders, Ty Hilton
Tier 5: NA,
Tier 6: Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Reggie Wayne, Golden Tate
Tier 7: Terrance Williams, Cecil Shorts, Rueben Randle, Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Anquan Boldin, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter, Brian Hartline
Tier 8: Riley Cooper, Markus Wheaton, Sammy Watkins, Greg Jennings, Mike Evans
Tier 9: James Jones, Danny Amendola, Steve Smith, Kenny Britt, Doug Baldwin, Hakeem Nicks
Tier 10: Andrew Hawkins, Tavon Austin, Jarrett Boykin, Aaron Dobson, Mohamed Sanu, Harry Douglas, Marqise Lee
0.5 PPR TE
Tier 2: Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen
Tier 3: Dennis Pitta, Jason Witten, Kyle Rudolph
Tier 4: Zach Ertz, Charles Clay, Martellus Bennett
Tier 5: Heath Miller, Antonio Gates, Delanie Walker, Ladarius Green
Tier 6: Dwayne Allen, Travis Kelce, Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert, Garrett Graham
Tier 7: Coby Fleener, Eric Ebron
Tier 8: Jace Amaro, Timothy Wright
0.5 PPR Flex
Tier 1: Michael Crabtree, Giovani Bernard, Roddy White, Randall Cobb, Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Zac Stacy, Rob Gronkowski, Pierre Garcon, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 2: Michael Floyd, Percy Harvin
Tier 3: Doug Martin, Torrey Smith, Jordan Cameron, Cordarrelle Patterson
Tier 4: Alfred Morris, Julian Edelman, Marques Colston, Emmanuel Sanders, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Kendall Wright, Eric Decker, Vernon Davis
Tier 5: Ty Hilton, Rashad Jennings, C.J. Spiller, Greg Olsen, Mike Wallace, Shane Vereen, Toby Gerhart, Jordan Reed
Tier 6: DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin
Tier 7: Jason Witten, Reggie Wayne, Dennis Pitta, Chris Johnson, Kyle Rudolph, Golden Tate, Ben Tate, Joique Bell, Ryan Mathews
Tier 8: Terrance Williams, Cecil Shorts, Rueben Randle
Tier 9: Zach Ertz, Kelvin Benjamin, Brandin Cooks, Pierre Thomas, Anquan Boldin, Bernard Pierce, DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Hartline, Steven Jackson, Justin Hunter
Tier 10: Martellus Bennett, Fred Jackson, Riley Cooper, Charles Clay
