Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Drafting by Tiers - 2014 Full Draft Kit

This will likely be the last update for the preseason -- very little has changed since last week.  Next week we'll be focusing on Week 1 charts.

Here is the full draft kit I personally use. There are three components, in order of importance: (a) the Google spreadsheet, (b) two charts for the top 180, and (c) six position specific charts.  The top 180 charts and spreadsheets are color synchronized.

(a) Boris Chen's Tiered Draft Sheet (copy and paste to your own)

(b) Top 200 Charts:


(c) Tiers by position:


An optional fourth component is fantasypros' compare players feature, on top of their outstanding data. Another nice tool to consider is Jay Zheng's draft aid.

Here are two complimentary articles with additional information:

Drafting a Fantasy Football Team, With Help From Advanced Statistics
Fantasy Football: Analyzing Draft Tiers With Advanced Statistics

Good luck everyone, and feel free to reach out to me on twitter @borisachen with questions, comments, or draft results.


Half PPR:




PPR:







12 comments:

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  2. Article is good. If the source codes with demo are given, it would be better.

    http://www.freemenu.info/2014/08/spreadsheet.html

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    1. Good point. Will do this going forward starting Week 1.

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  3. Boris - Interesting work, but I don't understand one thing.

    You, and most other draft advisors, end up with RB's as the top tiers, indicating I should make Le Sean McCoy and Jamal Charles my no 1 picks. But when I review overall fantasy point totals for last year on ESPN or Yahoo, the QB's dominate.

    For example, Peyton Manning's season total last year was 406 pts, Drew Brees 348 pts, but Jamal Charles pt total was 295. The Yahoo totals are even more disparate.

    So, given the point totals, why would I want to make Jamal Charles (Tier 1) my No. 1 pick if I could take Payton Manning or Drew Brees (both Tier 4)?

    Am I misunderstanding something here?

    Thanks,

    Robert

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    1. In short, because of what people call value over replacement. The point difference between QB1 and QB2 is not as big (percentage wise) as the point difference between RB1 and RB12. Running backs drop off much quicker. Also, you need two of them.

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    2. Thanks Boris. That makes sense...Still - It's going to be very hard for me to pass up Drew or Payton if they are on the board in round 1 :-), but I understand the logic now!

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    3. Did you mean QB12? Because right below that you compare RB1 & 12. It's obvious that the point dif. between QB1 and 2 is not as big as the difference between RB1 and 12! Just clarifying. Thanks :)

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    4. Oops, yes that is what I meant to type -- QB1 to QB12 vs RB1 to RB12.

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  4. Should I start Matt Ryan or Roethlisberger for week 1? ESPN puts BR over Ryan!

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    1. Ryan by 2 full tiers. Posting week 1 charts soon.

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  5. Boris:

    Can't seem to find pre-season rank/tiers by position. All nytimes links default to week one. BTW, thanks - great help.

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