Thursday, August 21, 2014

Top 200 - Preseason Update

Here is an update to the tier charts and sheets. I've tried to make this round colorblind friendly.  

Summary of the model: I apply a machine learning clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model to an aggregation of expert ranking data provided by Fantasypros.  The algorithm finds natural tiers and clusters within the data. The charts that result visualize the tiers and can help you draft your team.

Here are the charts for each position (also updated today, 8/21):


The spreadsheet version is available here: Boris Chen's Top 200 Tiers - Google Spreadsheet

Here are some insights I've gathered from looking at the data: 

(1) Quarter back is deeper this year than last year.  Last year we had 12 solid quarterbacks, this year we have 15, going down to Ben Roethlisberger. This doesn't even include players like Tannehill who many have called as underrated this season.  Outside of the top three, there are high expectations from Stafford and Luck in tier 2.  If none of those top five drop to you, I would argue there is no need to look at quarterback until round 10 or 11, as at least some of the top 15 should should be available then.

(2) Running back looks thinner than last year.  We have 15-20 reliable starters, falling off at either Andre Ellington at 15 or Rashad Jennings at 20.  Last year we were looking at 22 solid running backs in the preseason.  If you don't get two of the top 20 this year, you should plan on grabbing a few extra in the mid rounds.

(3) Wide receiver appears to be deeper this year. The top 4 tiers (24 wide receivers) through Desean Jackson should be a lock for solid production.  I also expect around half of the tier 7 and tier 8 receivers to become solid WR3s.  

(4) Taking a look at expert accuracies on fantasypros, it's interesting to see kicker preseason/draft accuracy trump defense preseason accuracy.  This suggests that it may be worth considering taking K in round 14 and DST in round 15 (aside from the tier 1 DSTs).

Also, Jay Zheng has created a great draft tool based on this data which I am considering personally using, check it out here.


Top 200:


Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Calvin Johnson
Tier 2: Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Montee Ball, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray
Tier 3: A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Giovani Bernard
Tier 4: Le'Veon Bell, Jordy Nelson, Arian Foster, Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy, Peyton Manning, Alshon Jeffery, Doug Martin, Antonio Brown
Tier 5: Aaron Rodgers, Andre Ellington, Drew Brees, Randall Cobb
Tier 6: Keenan Allen, Vincent Jackson, Toby Gerhart
Tier 7: Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas, Ryan Mathews, C.J. Spiller, Victor Cruz, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon, Roddy White
Tier 8: Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Bush, Rashad Jennings
Tier 9: Michael Crabtree, Frank Gore, Joique Bell, Michael Floyd, Matthew Stafford
Tier 10: Cordarrelle Patterson, Torrey Smith, Wes Welker, Shane Vereen, Bishop Sankey, DeSean Jackson, Andrew Luck, Ben Tate, Percy Harvin

Tier 11: Jordan Cameron, Chris Johnson, Mike Wallace, Ray Rice, Matt Ryan, Vernon Davis, Ty Hilton, Lamar Miller, Trent Richardson, Nick Foles, Robert Griffin III, Kendall Wright, Cam Newton, Marques Colston, Tom Brady
Tier 12: Stevan Ridley, Jeremy Maclin, Tony Romo, Eric Decker, Steven Jackson, Julian Edelman
Tier 13: Terrance Williams, Golden Tate, Jason Witten, Colin Kaepernick, Pierre Thomas, Jay Cutler, Greg Olsen, Emmanuel Sanders, Fred Jackson, Reggie Wayne, Jordan Reed, Maurice Jones-Drew
Tier 14: Dennis Pitta, Sammy Watkins, Kyle Rudolph, Rueben Randle, Russell Wilson, Brandin Cooks, Bernard Pierce, Dwayne Bowe, Philip Rivers
Tier 15: Cecil Shorts, Mike Evans, Terrance West, DeAngelo Williams, Kelvin Benjamin, Zach Ertz, DeAndre Hopkins, Jeremy Hill, Ben Roethlisberger, Danny Woodhead, Justin Hunter
Tier 16: Riley Cooper, Anquan Boldin, Darren Sproles, Darren McFadden
Tier 17: Mark Ingram, Christopher Ivory, Martellus Bennett, Carlos Hyde, Hakeem Nicks, Greg Jennings, Tavon Austin, Charles Clay, Markus Wheaton, Andre Williams, Brian Hartline, Andy Dalton, Knowshon Moreno, Devonta Freeman, Seattle Seahawks
Tier 18: Kenny Stills, Ladarius Green, Ryan Tannehill, LeGarrette Blount, Carson Palmer, Aaron Dobson


Tier 16: Jordan Matthews, Jarrett Boykin, Danny Amendola, Ahmad Bradshaw, Doug Baldwin, Khiry Robinson, Shonn Greene, Jonathan Stewart, Christine Michael, Heath Miller, James Jones, Kenny Britt, Marvin Jones, Josh Gordon
Tier 17: Steve Smith, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Delanie Walker, Dwayne Allen, Marqise Lee, Tyler Eifert, Antonio Gates, Josh McCown, San Francisco 49ers, Lance Dunbar, Andrew Hawkins, Rod Streater, Johnny Manziel, James White, Malcom Floyd
Tier 18: Joe Flacco, Knile Davis, Donald Brown, Eric Ebron, Robert Woods, Garrett Graham, Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams, Carolina Panthers, James Starks, Jake Locker, Jared Cook, Mike Williams, Odell Beckham Jr., Roy Helu, Harry Douglas, Travis Kelce, Jerricho Cotchery, Ronnie Hillman, Tre Mason, Andre Holmes, Steve Johnson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Miles Austin
Tier 19: Denver Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals, Coby Fleener, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, New England Patriots, C.J. Anderson, Bryce Brown, Dexter McCluster, Stepfan Taylor, Arizona Cardinals


Half PPR:

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham, Eddie Lacy, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant
Tier 2: DeMarco Murray, Montee Ball, A.J. Green, Marshawn Lynch, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Giovani Bernard
Tier 3: Jordy Nelson, Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy, Arian Foster, Alshon Jeffery, Doug Martin
Tier 4: Randall Cobb, Peyton Manning
Tier 5: Alfred Morris, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Pierre Garcon, Vincent Jackson, Reggie Bush, Julius Thomas, Andre Johnson, Keenan Allen, Victor Cruz, Rob Gronkowski, Ryan Mathews, Roddy White
Tier 6: C.J. Spiller, Larry Fitzgerald, Toby Gerhart, Rashad Jennings, Michael Crabtree
Tier 7: Wes Welker, Shane Vereen, Joique Bell, Matthew Stafford
Tier 8: Michael Floyd, Torrey Smith, Frank Gore, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ben Tate, Ray Rice
Tier 9: Chris Johnson, Andrew Luck, Bishop Sankey, Percy Harvin, Kendall Wright, DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Ty Hilton, Julian Edelman, Vernon Davis, Lamar Miller, Jordan Cameron, Marques Colston
Tier 10: Nick Foles, Pierre Thomas, Matt Ryan

Tier 11: Eric Decker, Robert Griffin III, Trent Richardson, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Jeremy Maclin, Steven Jackson
Tier 12: Jason Witten, Fred Jackson, Reggie Wayne, Golden Tate, Jordan Reed, Terrance Williams, Tony Romo, Maurice Jones-Drew, Dennis Pitta, Greg Olsen, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Emmanuel Sanders, Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler
Tier 13: Rueben Randle, Kyle Rudolph, Sammy Watkins, Cecil Shorts, Dwayne Bowe, Bernard Pierce, Russell Wilson
Tier 14: Brandin Cooks, Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, DeAndre Hopkins, Anquan Boldin, DeAngelo Williams, Riley Cooper, Kelvin Benjamin, Mike Evans, Terrance West, Brian Hartline, Zach Ertz, Ben Roethlisberger, Justin Hunter, Greg Jennings, Darren McFadden
Tier 15: Mark Ingram, Martellus Bennett, Charles Clay, Markus Wheaton, Knowshon Moreno, Jeremy Hill, Seattle Seahawks, Tavon Austin, Hakeem Nicks, Christopher Ivory, Devonta Freeman, Aaron Dobson
Tier 16: Steve Smith, Doug Baldwin, Carlos Hyde, Jarrett Boykin, Kenny Stills, Heath Miller, Andy Dalton, Jordan Matthews, Danny Amendola, Ahmad Bradshaw, Andre Williams, Marvin Jones, Jonathan Stewart

Tier 17: Josh Gordon
Tier 18: Shonn Greene, Ladarius Green, Kenny Britt, Christine Michael, Khiry Robinson, Lance Dunbar, James Jones, Marqise Lee, LeGarrette Blount, Delanie Walker, Rod Streater, Andrew Hawkins, Robert Woods, Antonio Gates, Ryan Tannehill, Roy Helu, Knile Davis, Dwayne Allen, Garrett Graham, Tyler Eifert, Jerricho Cotchery, Carson Palmer, Travis Kelce, Steve Johnson, Ronnie Hillman, Odell Beckham Jr., Donald Brown, Malcom Floyd, James Starks, Harry Douglas, Jonathan Grimes, Mike Tolbert, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Josh McCown, Kenbrell Thompkins, Miles Austin, Johnny Manziel, Andre Brown, Mohamed Sanu
Tier 19: NA, 
Tier 20: Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, Mike Williams, Dexter McCluster, Andre Holmes, Jacquizz Rodgers, San Francisco 49ers, Tre Mason, Coby Fleener, C.J. Anderson, James White, Bryce Brown, St. Louis Rams, Cody Latimer, Carolina Panthers, Brandon LaFell, Jordan Todman, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Denarius Moore


PPR:

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant
Tier 2: Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, Montee Ball, A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Marshawn Lynch
Tier 3: Le'Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Andre Ellington, Alshon Jeffery, Arian Foster
Tier 4: Zac Stacy, Randall Cobb, Doug Martin, Reggie Bush, Pierre Garcon, Andre Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, Peyton Manning, Julius Thomas
Tier 5: Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Roddy White, Keenan Allen, Ryan Mathews, Alfred Morris
Tier 6: Michael Crabtree, C.J. Spiller, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen, Larry Fitzgerald, Wes Welker
Tier 7: Toby Gerhart, Joique Bell
Tier 8: Michael Floyd, Ray Rice, Cordarrelle Patterson, Matthew Stafford, Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Ben Tate, Chris Johnson, Julian Edelman
Tier 9: Bishop Sankey, Percy Harvin, Mike Wallace, Pierre Thomas, Lamar Miller, DeSean Jackson, Ty Hilton, Andrew Luck, Frank Gore, Jordan Cameron
Tier 10: Marques Colston, Vernon Davis, Eric Decker, Danny Woodhead

Tier 11: Nick Foles, Trent Richardson, Matt Ryan, Dennis Pitta, Reggie Wayne, Jason Witten, Jeremy Maclin, Fred Jackson, Robert Griffin III, Jordan Reed, Tom Brady, Terrance Williams, Cam Newton, Golden Tate, Greg Olsen, Steven Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 12: Maurice Jones-Drew, Stevan Ridley, Kyle Rudolph, Tony Romo, Darren Sproles, Rueben Randle, Sammy Watkins, Dwayne Bowe, Bernard Pierce, Colin Kaepernick, Cecil Shorts, Jay Cutler
Tier 13: Brandin Cooks, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 14: Brian Hartline, Russell Wilson, DeAngelo Williams, Philip Rivers, Anquan Boldin, Mike Evans, Riley Cooper, Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Jennings, Zach Ertz, Darren McFadden, Terrance West, Justin Hunter
Tier 15: Seattle Seahawks, Knowshon Moreno, Markus Wheaton, Charles Clay, Martellus Bennett, Ben Roethlisberger, Tavon Austin, Doug Baldwin, Devonta Freeman, Mark Ingram, Jarrett Boykin, Steve Smith, Jeremy Hill, Hakeem Nicks
Tier 16: Aaron Dobson, Christopher Ivory, Heath Miller, Danny Amendola, Marvin Jones, Jordan Matthews, Kenny Stills, Carlos Hyde, Lance Dunbar, Ahmad Bradshaw, Marqise Lee, James Jones

Tier 17: Rod Streater, Ladarius Green, Andrew Hawkins, Andy Dalton, Andre Williams, Delanie Walker, Khiry Robinson, Robert Woods, Kenny Britt, Christine Michael, Shonn Greene, Jonathan Stewart, Knile Davis, Roy Helu, Josh Gordon
Tier 18: NA, 
Tier 19: Antonio Gates, Garrett Graham, Jerricho Cotchery, LeGarrette Blount, Harry Douglas, Tyler Eifert, Jared Cook, Dexter McCluster, Steve Johnson, Mike Williams, Odell Beckham Jr., Dwayne Allen, Ryan Tannehill, Eric Ebron, Jacquizz Rodgers, Travis Kelce, Ronnie Hillman, Andre Holmes, Malcom Floyd, Carson Palmer, Jonathan Grimes, Miles Austin, Kenbrell Thompkins, St. Louis Rams, Owen Daniels, Andre Brown
Tier 20: Bryce Brown, Mohamed Sanu
Tier 21: Donald Brown, Mike Tolbert, James Starks, Tre Mason, James White, Cody Latimer, San Francisco 49ers, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, C.J. Anderson, Lance Moore, Nate Washington, Brandon LaFell, Coby Fleener, Carolina Panthers, Charles Sims, Denarius Moore


1 comment:

  1. Boris,
    Great stuff! I was wondering when your next update would come out. My draft is on the 30th and I wanted to know if I should use these as final ranking or hold off. Thanks for all your work!

    ReplyDelete