Week 13 Tiers - Introduction

Week 13 Charts are live -- here are the links:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-QB.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-RB.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-WR.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-TE.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-K.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-D.html

Note: If you go through any external link, like these above, you won't have paywall issues. Right click each > open in new tab. You can also use incognito mode.

Flex won't be posted on NYT, so here they are:


Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Antonio Brown, Chris Johnson, Rob Gronkowski, Reggie Bush, Jordy Nelson
Tier 2: Alshon Jeffery, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson
Tier 3: Pierre Garcon, DeMarco Murray, Alfred Morris, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Zac Stacy
Tier 4: Rashad Jennings, Keenan Allen, Maurice Jones-Drew, Knowshon Moreno, Harry Douglas, Michael Floyd, Ray Rice
Tier 5: Jason Witten, Shane Vereen, Torrey Smith, Le'Veon Bell, Mike Wallace, Eric Decker, C.J. Spiller, Giovani Bernard, Julius Thomas, Fred Jackson, Riley Cooper
Tier 6: Jarrett Boykin, Ben Tate, Vernon Davis
Tier 7: NA, 
Tier 8: Ty Hilton, Greg Olsen, Steve Smith, Steven Jackson, Nate Burleson, Dwayne Bowe, Tony Gonzalez, Cecil Shorts, Pierre Thomas, Kendall Wright, Danny Woodhead, Rod Streater, Percy Harvin
Tier 9: Marques Colston, Bobby Rainey, Jordan Cameron, James Jones, Steve Johnson
Tier 10: Stevan Ridley, Coby Fleener, Antonio Gates, Martellus Bennett, Andre Ellington





Summary (for first time readers):

My model takes an aggregation of expert rankings from fantasypros, and passes the data into a machine learning clustering algorithm called a gaussian mixture model. Then, I plot each player in the two dimensional space of weighted expert consensus rank (ECR) and raw average rank, and color them by the tier determined by the algorithm. Match-ups are accounted for.  The result is beautiful charts and tiers that help you set your line up.

Why the model is powerful: Every week, fantasypros collects data from over 130 experts, each of whom watch and analyze football for a living. Both fantasypros and my model build on the intuition that an aggregation of many expert opinions provides more reliable rankings than what any one expert can predict.

On top of this, the clustering algorithm is able to identify players that are ranked similarly in the data and find natural tiers among the players. It is not always the case that QB3 > QB4 > QB5.  Sometimes they are equal, and the algorithm uncovers this.

How to use the charts: Each black dot represents the player's average rank and weighted ECR. The color corresponds to the tier given by the algorithm. I recommend starting players in higher tiers.

Within a tier, most player will appear close together. This means experts are near 50/50 on who is better this week. The tiering algorithm says these players are equals this week. In this case, I recommend flipping a coin, or going with your gut.  If experts can't agree, there is no right answer.

As always, you can catch my updates on twitter.

Week 13 - Teaser

Week 13 will be updated on NYTimes on Wednesday 11/27. Watch my twitter for the links.

Here's a sneak peek until tomorrow:
- Foles, McCown tier 3. Kaepernick, Ryan, Luck tier 4.
- Brown tier 2. Chris Johnson tier 3. MJD tier 4. Rice, Vereen, Gio, Spiller, FJax tier 5.
- Gordon tier 1. Fitz tier 2. Floyd tier 3. Wallace tier 4. Hilton, Burleson, Streater tier 5.
- Browns tier 1. Seahawks tier 2.

Week 13 - PPR

RB

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte
Tier 2: Andre Brown, Reggie Bush, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch
Tier 3: Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Shane Vereen
Tier 4: Maurice Jones-Drew, Rashad Jennings, Giovani Bernard, Knowshon Moreno, Zac Stacy, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead, Ray Rice
Tier 5: Le'Veon Bell, Ben Tate, C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson
Tier 6: Alfred Morris, Steven Jackson, Andre Ellington, Darren Sproles, Chris Ogbonnaya
Tier 7: Bobby Rainey, Lamar Miller
Tier 8: Bilal Powell, Trent Richardson, Donald Brown, Stevan Ridley, Darren McFadden, Montee Ball, Christopher Ivory, Joique Bell, Rashard Mendenhall

WR

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon
Tier 2: Pierre Garcon, Andre Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Wes Welker
Tier 3: Harry Douglas, Keenan Allen, DeSean Jackson
Tier 4: Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Jarrett Boykin, Nate Burleson, Cecil Shorts, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace
Tier 5: Torrey Smith, Steve Smith, Dwayne Bowe, Ty Hilton, Rod Streater, Riley Cooper
Tier 6: Percy Harvin, Marques Colston, Brian Hartline, Steve Johnson, Danny Amendola, James Jones, Anquan Boldin, Denarius Moore
Tier 7: Roddy White, Rishard Matthews, Rueben Randle, Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Hakeem Nicks
Tier 8: Cordarrelle Patterson, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate, Dexter McCluster
Tier 9: Tavon Austin, Robert Woods, Miles Austin, Tiquan Underwood, Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 10: Michael Crabtree, Aaron Dobson, Marquise Goodwin, Justin Hunter, Andre Holmes

TE

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten
Tier 2: Julius Thomas, Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Coby Fleener, Jordan Cameron, Vernon Davis, Martellus Bennett
Tier 3: Delanie Walker, Garrett Graham, Robert Housler, Charles Clay, Heath Miller, John Carlson, Tim Wright
Tier 4: Brandon Pettigrew, Brandon Myers, Anthony Fasano, Jermaine Gresham, Jared Cook, Ladarius Green, Tyler Eifert, Scott Chandler, Zach Ertz
Tier 5: Jacob Tamme, Dallas Clark

Flex

Tier 1: Andre Johnson, Jordy Nelson, LeSean McCoy
Tier 2: Reggie Bush, Larry Fitzgerald, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, Alshon Jeffery, Wes Welker, Marshawn Lynch
Tier 3: Harry Douglas, Jason Witten, Keenan Allen, Eddie Lacy, DeSean Jackson
Tier 4: Frank Gore, DeMarco Murray, Chris Johnson, Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Jarrett Boykin, Shane Vereen, Nate Burleson
Tier 5: Maurice Jones-Drew, Mike Wallace, Eric Decker, Cecil Shorts, Giovani Bernard, Julius Thomas, Zac Stacy, Jordan Reed
Tier 6: Rashad Jennings, Knowshon Moreno, Torrey Smith, Danny Woodhead, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 7: NA, 
Tier 8: Pierre Thomas, Ray Rice, Steve Smith, Greg Olsen, Ty Hilton, Rod Streater, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Riley Cooper
Tier 9: Vernon Davis, Coby Fleener, Le'Veon Bell, Jordan Cameron, Percy Harvin
Tier 10: Marques Colston, James Jones, Danny Amendola, Steve Johnson, Fred Jackson
Tier 11: Brian Hartline, Ben Tate, Anquan Boldin, C.J. Spiller, Martellus Bennett, Alfred Morris

Week 13 - Half PPR

RB

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte
Tier 2: Andre Brown, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Eddie Lacy
Tier 3: Chris Johnson, DeMarco Murray, Knowshon Moreno, Shane Vereen, Maurice Jones-Drew, Zac Stacy, Rashad Jennings, Ray Rice, Giovani Bernard
Tier 4: Le'Veon Bell, Alfred Morris, Pierre Thomas, Ben Tate, Danny Woodhead, C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson
Tier 5: Steven Jackson, Andre Ellington, Bobby Rainey, Darren Sproles
Tier 6: Stevan Ridley, Chris Ogbonnaya, Lamar Miller, Trent Richardson, Christopher Ivory
Tier 7: Donald Brown, Darren McFadden, Bilal Powell, Montee Ball, Joique Bell, Rashard Mendenhall

WR

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon
Tier 2: Andre Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Pierre Garcon, Alshon Jeffery, Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, DeSean Jackson, Harry Douglas, Keenan Allen
Tier 3: NA, 
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace, Cecil Shorts, Jarrett Boykin, Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Nate Burleson, Steve Smith, Riley Cooper, Ty Hilton, Dwayne Bowe, Rod Streater
Tier 5: Percy Harvin, Marques Colston, James Jones, Steve Johnson, Brian Hartline, Danny Amendola, Roddy White, Anquan Boldin, Denarius Moore
Tier 6: Rueben Randle, Rishard Matthews, Emmanuel Sanders, Hakeem Nicks, Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman, Golden Tate, Cordarrelle Patterson
Tier 7: Tavon Austin, Robert Woods, Michael Crabtree, Miles Austin, Tiquan Underwood, Justin Hunter, Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Dexter McCluster, Andre Holmes
Tier 8: Aaron Dobson, Marquise Goodwin

TE

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten
Tier 2: Julius Thomas, Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen, Vernon Davis, Jordan Reed, Antonio Gates, Jordan Cameron, Coby Fleener, Martellus Bennett
Tier 3: Delanie Walker, Garrett Graham, Robert Housler, Charles Clay, Heath Miller, John Carlson, Tim Wright
Tier 4: Brandon Pettigrew, Brandon Myers, Dallas Clark, Jared Cook, Ladarius Green, Tyler Eifert, Anthony Fasano, Scott Chandler, Zach Ertz
Tier 5: Jacob Tamme, Brent Celek

Flex

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski
Tier 2: Reggie Bush, Jordy Nelson, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon, Vincent Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy, Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker
Tier 3: Chris Johnson, Keenan Allen, Harry Douglas, DeMarco Murray, DeSean Jackson, Jason Witten, Knowshon Moreno
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Maurice Jones-Drew, Zac Stacy
Tier 5: Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings, Mike Wallace, Eric Decker, Cecil Shorts, Julius Thomas, Jarrett Boykin, Torrey Smith, Ray Rice, Giovani Bernard
Tier 6: Kendall Wright, Steve Smith, Nate Burleson, Riley Cooper
Tier 7: Alfred Morris, Tony Gonzalez, Le'Veon Bell, Ty Hilton, Dwayne Bowe, Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed
Tier 8: Vernon Davis, Pierre Thomas, Rod Streater, Danny Woodhead, Ben Tate, Percy Harvin, Fred Jackson
Tier 9: Antonio Gates, Marques Colston, C.J. Spiller, Jordan Cameron
Tier 10: Coby Fleener, James Jones, Brian Hartline, Steven Jackson, Steve Johnson, Roddy White, Martellus Bennett

Should The Atlanta Falcons Have Kicked a Field Goal Last Night?

By Natalie Kitroeff and Boris Chen

Last night, facing a stubborn 4-point deficit, the Atlanta Falcons made a decision that was exciting and statistically questionable. 

With 2:24 remaining in the game, the Falcons were staring headlong into the black hole that is the New Orleans Saints defense, 34 yards away from the end zone and a much longer 4th-and-15. 

The underwhelming 17-13 score belied the general feeling of boredom that reigned supreme at the Georgia Dome Thursday. The cliches that commentators often weaponize in scenarios like these don’t really apply. It was neither a “defensive battle” nor a hard fought “game of inches.” 

Both quarterbacks seemed relatively unbothered by the idea that this was a professional competition. Matt Ryan was so ambivalent that he stopped just short of the end zone after making a break for it late in the 2nd quarter, as if he thought stealing a base was good enough. 



Samuel Jackson, who was in attendance, respectfully disagreed. 



At 2:24, the Falcons had three options: try to get a first down and continue the drive, punt the ball, or kick a field goal, and hope that the fairly good Atlanta defense would withstand a Saints drive and give Mr. Ryan a chance to march down the field far enough to give the team a shot at another field goal.

They opted to kick a 52-yard field goal. Matt Bryant, an above average kicker, missed. But that’s besides the point, because he should never have gotten the chance to. 

Let’s analyze Atlanta’s three options with the aid of Brian Burke’s 4th down calculator.

1) Field goal attempt: The plan was kick a field goal, then hope for a 3-and-out (or onside kick), and another field goal. Based on the calculator, the chance of making the 54-yard FG attempt was 52%. If converted, the Falcons would have had a 12% chance of winning from there. If failed, they would still have a 5% chance of winning. 

All this sums to a 9% win probability for the FG attempt. (Even if we assume the FG is a 100% lock, it’s still only a 12% win probability for this option)

2) Go for it: The Falcons would have had a 19% chance of making the 1st down on 4th and 15. If they converted, they would have had a 47% chance to score a td from there and take the game. If they failed to convert, they still would have had a 4% chance of taking over the ball again and win with a touchdown.

This gives a 12% win probability for the go-for-it option.

3) Punt: The last option was punt from the NO 34, pin the Saints deep in their own territory, hope for decent field position on a Saints punt, and have a final shot at the end zone.  

The punt option nets a whopping 31% win probability.

So there it is. Punting, the boring option, was more than three times more sensible than kicking the field goal. And the route that seems more insane than any, trusting Matt Ryan’s arm on a 4th and 15, would have been a better bet than trying for three points. Football, like all things, is weirder than you think.    


Natalie Kitroeff is an Eagles fan. She works at the New York Times.

Week 11 - Retrospective

Here are the accuracy results (accuracy = percentage of time a higher tier results in a higher median score than a lower tier) since week 6:

WeekQBRBWRTEKDST
6501009073.366.780
7908086.7805083.3
81009073.386.783.3100
98010086.79083.380
109086.771.46033.350
11909086.78066.783.3
Average83.391.182.578.363.979.4

So far, we see that RB is the most predictable, followed by QB and WR, followed by TE and DST, and finally K is the least predictable.  At least predicting kickers is slightly better than random (random guessing yields 50% accuracy).

Updates from last week:
- Fixed DST scoring.  Wasn't account for points allowed previously.



QB
Tier 1 median: 25.6
Tier 2 median: 19.5
Tier 3 median: 16.8
Tier 4 median: 18.9
Tier 5 median: 7.8
Accuracy = 90

RB
Tier 1 median: 8.6
Tier 2 median: 9.3
Tier 3 median: 8.4
Tier 4 median: 6.8
Tier 5 median: 4.5
Accuracy = 90

WR
Tier 1 median: 9.9
Tier 2 median: 9.6
Tier 3 median: 4.8
Tier 4 median: 6.5
Tier 5 median: 2.1
Tier 6 median: 2.3
Accuracy = 86.7

TE
Tier 1 median: 8
Tier 2 median: 7.2
Tier 3 median: 8.7
Tier 4 median: 6.9
Tier 5 median: 3.1
Tier 6 median: 4.2
Accuracy = 80

K
Tier 1 median: 9
Tier 2 median: 8.5
Tier 3 median: 11
Tier 4 median: 8
Accuracy = 66.7

DST
Tier 1 median: 12
Tier 2 median: 6
Tier 3 median: 4
Tier 5 median: 6
Accuracy = 83.3

Week 12 - Introduction

Week 12 will be updated on NYTimes on Thursday 11/21. Watch my twitter for the links.

edit:
Charts are live -- here are the links:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-QB.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-RB.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-WR.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-TE.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-K.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-D.html


Note: If you go through any external link, like these above, you won't have paywall issues. Or use incognito mode.

Flex won't be posted on NYT, so here they are:


Tier 1: Brandon Marshall, Alfred Morris, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson
Tier 2: Rashad Jennings, Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson, Alshon Jeffery, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Wes Welker
Tier 3: Josh Gordon, Ty Hilton, Torrey Smith, Le'Veon Bell, Eric Decker
Tier 4: Marques Colston, DeMarco Murray, Maurice Jones-Drew, Danny Amendola, Stevan Ridley, Larry Fitzgerald, Pierre Thomas
Tier 5: Kendall Wright, Julius Thomas, Ray Rice, Shane Vereen, Vernon Davis, Keenan Allen, Bobby Rainey
Tier 6: Hakeem Nicks, Jason Witten, Aaron Dobson, Jarrett Boykin, Steve Smith
Tier 7: Harry Douglas, Michael Floyd, Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 8: Ryan Mathews, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Christopher Ivory, Coby Fleener, Danny Woodhead, Andre Ellington, Steven Jackson, Cecil Shorts
Tier 9: Antonio Gates, Mike Wallace, Rueben Randle, James Jones, Jordan Reed, Darren Sproles, Chris Ogbonnaya, Emmanuel Sanders

Tier 10: Delanie Walker, Donald Brown, Rashard Mendenhall




Summary (for first time readers):

My model takes an aggregation of expert rankings from fantasypros, and passes the data into a machine learning clustering algorithm called a gaussian mixture model. Then, I plot each player in the two dimensional space of weighted expert consensus rank (ECR) and raw average rank, and color them by the tier determined by the algorithm. Match-ups are accounted for.  The result is beautiful charts and tiers that help you set your line up.

Why the model is powerful: Every week, fantasypros collects data from over 130 experts, each of whom watch and analyze football for a living. Both fantasypros and my model build on the intuition that an aggregation of many expert opinions provides more reliable rankings than what any one expert can predict.

On top of this, the clustering algorithm is able to identify players that are ranked similarly in the data and find natural tiers among the players. It is not always the case that QB3 > QB4 > QB5.  Sometimes they are equal, and the algorithm uncovers this.

How to use the charts: Each black dot represents the player's average rank and weighted ECR. The color corresponds to the tier given by the algorithm. I recommend starting players in higher tiers.

Within a tier, most player will appear close together. This means experts are near 50/50 on who is better this week. The tiering algorithm says these players are equals this week. In this case, I recommend flipping a coin, or going with your gut.  If experts can't agree, there is no right answer.

As always, you can catch my updates on twitter.

Week 12 - PPR

RB

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, Adrian Peterson, Zac Stacy, Andre Brown, Knowshon Moreno, Reggie Bush, Eddie Lacy, Ben Tate, Frank Gore
Tier 2: Chris Johnson, Rashad Jennings, Pierre Thomas, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Alfred Morris, Ray Rice, Shane Vereen, Maurice Jones-Drew, Danny Woodhead
Tier 3: Bobby Rainey, Darren Sproles, Stevan Ridley, Andre Ellington, Chris Ogbonnaya, Steven Jackson, Ryan Mathews
Tier 4: Christopher Ivory, Donald Brown, Brian Leonard, Jacquizz Rodgers, Joique Bell, Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller, Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, Mike Tolbert
Tier 5: Jonathan Stewart, Montee Ball, Mark Ingram

WR

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Victor Cruz, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Pierre Garcon
Tier 2: Wes Welker, Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery, Kendall Wright, Ty Hilton, Danny Amendola, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith
Tier 3: Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Harry Douglas, Keenan Allen, Jarrett Boykin, Dwayne Bowe, Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Anquan Boldin
Tier 4: Roddy White, Aaron Dobson, Cecil Shorts, Michael Floyd
Tier 5: Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline, James Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, Rishard Matthews, Rueben Randle, Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon LaFell
Tier 6: Denarius Moore, Nate Burleson, Santonio Holmes, Kris Durham, Marlon Brown, Greg Jennings, Rod Streater, Dexter McCluster
Tier 7: Jerricho Cotchery, Kenny Stills, Tavon Austin, Miles Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Nate Washington, Tiquan Underwood, Chris Givens, Lance Moore, Mike Brown, Greg Little, Eddie Royal

TE

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham
Tier 2: Jason Witten, Julius Thomas, Vernon Davis, Jordan Reed, Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Coby Fleener
Tier 3: Garrett Graham, Delanie Walker, Greg Olsen, Jordan Cameron, John Carlson, Charles Clay, Heath Miller, Robert Housler
Tier 4: Martellus Bennett, Tim Wright, Brandon Pettigrew, Jared Cook
Tier 5: Dallas Clark, Mychal Rivera, Jeff Cumberland, Andrew Quarless, Brandon Myers, Marcedes Lewis, Anthony Fasano
Tier 6: Ladarius Green, Lance Kendricks

Flex

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Andre Johnson
Tier 2: Rob Gronkowski, Vincent Jackson, Adrian Peterson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Zac Stacy, Victor Cruz
Tier 3: Jimmy Graham, Andre Brown, Jordy Nelson, Pierre Garcon, Antonio Brown, Knowshon Moreno
Tier 4: Reggie Bush, Eddie Lacy, Ben Tate, Wes Welker, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Gordon, Ty Hilton, Frank Gore, Kendall Wright, Danny Amendola, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith
Tier 5: Jason Witten, Chris Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Rashad Jennings, Harry Douglas, Pierre Thomas, Keenan Allen, Julius Thomas, Jarrett Boykin
Tier 6: NA, 
Tier 7: DeMarco Murray, Vernon Davis, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, Dwayne Bowe, Le'Veon Bell, Anquan Boldin
Tier 8: Roddy White, Alfred Morris, Shane Vereen, Tony Gonzalez, Jordan Reed, Ray Rice, Antonio Gates, Aaron Dobson, Cecil Shorts, Michael Floyd, Coby Fleener
Tier 9: Maurice Jones-Drew, Danny Woodhead, Mike Wallace
Tier 10: Brian Hartline, James Jones, Darren Sproles, Rueben Randle, Bobby Rainey, Garrett Graham, Rishard Matthews, Terrance Williams, Stevan Ridley, Emmanuel Sanders, Andre Ellington, Delanie Walker, Chris Ogbonnaya
Tier 11: DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon LaFell, Steven Jackson, Greg Olsen, Denarius Moore, Jordan Cameron

Week 12 - Half PPR

RB

Tier 1: Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Zac Stacy
Tier 2: Andre Brown, Ben Tate, Eddie Lacy, Knowshon Moreno, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush
Tier 3: Rashad Jennings, Chris Johnson, Alfred Morris, Pierre Thomas, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 4: Ray Rice, Maurice Jones-Drew, Shane Vereen, Bobby Rainey, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead
Tier 5: Darren Sproles, Andre Ellington, Ryan Mathews, Steven Jackson, Chris Ogbonnaya, Christopher Ivory
Tier 6: Donald Brown, Joique Bell, Brian Leonard, Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, Lamar Miller, Trent Richardson, Jacquizz Rodgers
Tier 7: Jonathan Stewart, Montee Ball, Mike Tolbert, Mark Ingram

WR

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, Jordy Nelson
Tier 2: Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Wes Welker, Alshon Jeffery, Josh Gordon, Ty Hilton, Eric Decker, Danny Amendola, Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Marques Colston
Tier 3: Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 4: Keenan Allen, Harry Douglas, Jarrett Boykin, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, Dwayne Bowe, Anquan Boldin, Aaron Dobson, Roddy White, Michael Floyd, Cecil Shorts
Tier 5: Mike Wallace, James Jones, Emmanuel Sanders, Rueben Randle, Brian Hartline, Terrance Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Rishard Matthews, Brandon LaFell
Tier 6: Kris Durham, Denarius Moore, Santonio Holmes, Marlon Brown, Nate Burleson, Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings, Rod Streater
Tier 7: Jerricho Cotchery, Tavon Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Miles Austin, Dexter McCluster, Lance Moore, Tiquan Underwood, Chris Givens, Nate Washington, Mike Brown, Eddie Royal
Tier 8: Ace Sanders

TE

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham
Tier 2: Jason Witten, Julius Thomas, Vernon Davis, Tony Gonzalez, Jordan Reed, Coby Fleener, Antonio Gates
Tier 3: Garrett Graham, Delanie Walker, Greg Olsen, Jordan Cameron, John Carlson, Charles Clay, Heath Miller, Martellus Bennett, Robert Housler
Tier 4: Tim Wright, Dallas Clark, Jared Cook, Brandon Pettigrew, Jeff Cumberland, Mychal Rivera, Ladarius Green, Andrew Quarless, Brandon Myers, Marcedes Lewis
Tier 5: Lance Kendricks, Joel Dreessen

Flex

Tier 1: Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Andre Johnson, Zac Stacy
Tier 2: Vincent Jackson, Rob Gronkowski, Demaryius Thomas, Andre Brown, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz
Tier 3: Knowshon Moreno, Eddie Lacy, Ben Tate, Jimmy Graham, Frank Gore, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Reggie Bush, Wes Welker
Tier 4: Alshon Jeffery, Josh Gordon, Ty Hilton, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Rashad Jennings, Danny Amendola, Chris Johnson, Alfred Morris, Kendall Wright, Marques Colston
Tier 5: Larry Fitzgerald, Jason Witten, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Pierre Thomas, Julius Thomas, Keenan Allen
Tier 6: Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, Harry Douglas, Jarrett Boykin, Ray Rice, Vernon Davis, Maurice Jones-Drew, Dwayne Bowe, Anquan Boldin, Shane Vereen, Aaron Dobson, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez
Tier 7: NA, 
Tier 8: Michael Floyd, Stevan Ridley, Cecil Shorts, Antonio Gates, Coby Fleener, Jordan Reed, Bobby Rainey, Danny Woodhead, Mike Wallace
Tier 9: Darren Sproles, James Jones, Andre Ellington, Rueben Randle, Brian Hartline, Ryan Mathews, Steven Jackson, Terrance Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Garrett Graham, Chris Ogbonnaya, DeAndre Hopkins, Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews
Tier 10: Christopher Ivory, Brandon LaFell, Jordan Cameron

Week 11 - Introduction

Week 11 will be updated on NYTimes on Thursday 11/14.  Check back or watch my twitter for the links, which I will post as soon as it's live.

edit:
Charts are live. Here are the links (if you go through any external link, like these below, you won't have paywall issues):

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/15/sports/football/fantasy-football-week-11-player-tiers.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-QB.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-RB.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-WR.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-TE.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-K.html
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/sports/football/2013-fantasy-football-tier-charts-D.html

If you just want the football charts, it's probably not worth the NYT subscription since I'll post the links every week. That said, I think the other content on NYT is certainly worth $15/month - it's consistently high quality journalism that has made me a more well rounded conversationalist.

The Sablich brothers are also a good source, they were top 5 overall via Fantasypros in '11, '12, and are top 5 so far in '13 too.

edit:
They've decided not to post flex, so I'll post it below:


These are FLEX15 - FLEX75.

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Pierre Garcon, Vincent Jackson, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Eddie Lacy, Andre Brown, Wes Welker
Tier 2: Jimmy Graham, Ben Tate
Tier 3: Victor Cruz, Alshon Jeffery, Ty Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker, Chris Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Keenan Allen, Josh Gordon
Tier 4: Torrey Smith, Andre Ellington, Jordy Nelson, Giovani Bernard, Danny Woodhead, Rashad Jennings
Tier 5: Ray Rice, Cecil Shorts, Riley Cooper, Jordan Reed, Julius Thomas
Tier 6: Antonio Gates, Golden Tate, Mike Wallace, Steve Smith, Danny Amendola
Tier 7: Fred Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Vernon Davis, Stevan Ridley, Harry Douglas, Marques Colston, Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White
Tier 8: Jordan Cameron, Hakeem Nicks, Pierre Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Miller, Christopher Ivory
Tier 9: Emmanuel Sanders, Percy Harvin, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Aaron Dobson, Kendall Wright, Brian Leonard
Tier 10: C.J. Spiller, Darren Sproles, Martellus Bennett, Rashard Mendenhall, Trent Richardson

Week 11 - PPR



 Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Reggie Bush, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Knowshon Moreno, Matt Forte
Tier 2: Danny Woodhead, Andre Brown, Frank Gore, Ben Tate, Giovani Bernard, Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Andre Ellington, Chris Johnson, Alfred Morris, Ray Rice, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Rashad Jennings
Tier 3: NA, 
Tier 4: Fred Jackson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Brian Leonard, Shane Vereen, Steven Jackson, Lamar Miller, C.J. Spiller, Ryan Mathews, Stevan Ridley
Tier 5: Christopher Ivory, Jacquizz Rodgers, Trent Richardson, Rashard Mendenhall, Donald Brown, Bilal Powell, Bobby Rainey, Chris Ogbonnaya, DeAngelo Williams, Joique Bell


Tier 1: Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Pierre Garcon, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker
Tier 2: Victor Cruz, Keenan Allen, Cecil Shorts, Eric Decker, Larry Fitzgerald, Josh Gordon, Ty Hilton, Alshon Jeffery, Danny Amendola, Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith, Harry Douglas
Tier 3: Steve Smith, Kendall Wright, Roddy White, Mike Wallace, Golden Tate, Riley Cooper, Marques Colston, Emmanuel Sanders, DeAndre Hopkins, Hakeem Nicks, Aaron Dobson
Tier 4: Percy Harvin, Steve Johnson, Brian Hartline, Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe, Rishard Matthews, Michael Floyd, Jarrett Boykin, James Jones, Denarius Moore, Marvin Jones, Brandon LaFell, Mike Brown
Tier 5: Doug Baldwin, Rueben Randle, Nate Burleson, Marlon Brown, Kenny Stills, Santonio Holmes, Tiquan Underwood, Greg Jennings, Dexter McCluster, Leonard Hankerson, Eddie Royal
Tier 6: Jerricho Cotchery, Andre Roberts, Lance Moore


Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed, Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Jordan Cameron, Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis
Tier 2: NA, 
Tier 3: Martellus Bennett, Heath Miller, Greg Olsen, Coby Fleener, Charles Clay, Scott Chandler, Tim Wright, Garrett Graham, John Carlson, Robert Housler
Tier 4: Tyler Eifert, Delanie Walker, Brandon Pettigrew, Zach Miller, Marcedes Lewis, Jermaine Gresham
Tier 5: Jeff Cumberland, Anthony Fasano, Kellen Winslow, Brandon Myers, Ed Dickson, Brent Celek


Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon, Reggie Bush, Marshawn Lynch, Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown
Tier 2: A.J. Green, Adrian Peterson, Demaryius Thomas, DeSean Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Vincent Jackson, Matt Forte, Wes Welker, Jimmy Graham
Tier 3: Victor Cruz, Jordan Reed, Keenan Allen
Tier 4: Cecil Shorts, Danny Woodhead, Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker, Ty Hilton, Josh Gordon
Tier 5: Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, Danny Amendola, Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Frank Gore, Torrey Smith, Andre Brown, Ben Tate, Giovani Bernard, Le'Veon Bell, Harry Douglas
Tier 6: NA, 
Tier 7: Eddie Lacy, Chris Johnson, Andre Ellington, Steve Smith, Riley Cooper, Golden Tate, Kendall Wright, Jordan Cameron, Mike Wallace, Roddy White, Vernon Davis, Tony Gonzalez
Tier 8: Alfred Morris, Marques Colston, Ray Rice, Emmanuel Sanders, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, DeAndre Hopkins, Rashad Jennings
Tier 9: Aaron Dobson, Percy Harvin, Fred Jackson, Brian Hartline, Steve Johnson
Tier 10: Anquan Boldin, Jarrett Boykin, Martellus Bennett, Rishard Matthews, Dwayne Bowe, Maurice Jones-Drew, Brian Leonard, Michael Floyd, Shane Vereen
Tier 11: James Jones, Denarius Moore, Steven Jackson, Heath Miller, Greg Olsen

Week 11 - Half PPR


 Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson, Knowshon Moreno, Matt Forte
Tier 2: Frank Gore, Andre Brown, Eddie Lacy, Ben Tate, Alfred Morris, Danny Woodhead
Tier 3: Le'Veon Bell, Chris Johnson, Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington, Ray Rice, Rashad Jennings
Tier 4: Pierre Thomas, Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles
Tier 5: Brian Leonard, Ryan Mathews, Maurice Jones-Drew, Lamar Miller, Steven Jackson, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller
Tier 6: Christopher Ivory, Trent Richardson, Rashard Mendenhall, Donald Brown
Tier 7: Jacquizz Rodgers, Bilal Powell, Bobby Rainey, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Joique Bell


Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Pierre Garcon, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown, DeSean Jackson, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz
Tier 2: NA, 
Tier 3: Keenan Allen, Eric Decker, Cecil Shorts, Larry Fitzgerald, Ty Hilton, Josh Gordon, Alshon Jeffery, Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith, Danny Amendola
Tier 4: Harry Douglas, Steve Smith, Riley Cooper, Golden Tate, Roddy White, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Kendall Wright, Hakeem Nicks, DeAndre Hopkins, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 5: Aaron Dobson, Percy Harvin, Steve Johnson, Michael Floyd, Anquan Boldin, Brian Hartline, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 6: Rishard Matthews, Jarrett Boykin, James Jones, Denarius Moore, Brandon LaFell, Marvin Jones, Rueben Randle, Doug Baldwin, Mike Brown, Marlon Brown
Tier 7: Kenny Stills, Nate Burleson, Tiquan Underwood, Santonio Holmes, Eddie Royal, Greg Jennings, Leonard Hankerson
Tier 8: Jerricho Cotchery, Lance Moore, Dexter McCluster, Jermaine Kearse



Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Jordan Reed, Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis, Tony Gonzalez, Jordan Cameron
Tier 2: NA, 
Tier 3: Martellus Bennett, Greg Olsen, Heath Miller, Coby Fleener, Tim Wright, Charles Clay, Scott Chandler, Garrett Graham, John Carlson
Tier 4: Tyler Eifert, Robert Housler, Zach Miller, Delanie Walker, Brandon Pettigrew, Marcedes Lewis, Zach Ertz
Tier 5: Jeff Cumberland, Jermaine Gresham, Kellen Winslow, Brandon Myers, Dallas Clark, Brent Celek


Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Andre Johnson
Tier 2: A.J. Green, Rob Gronkowski, Pierre Garcon, Brandon Marshall, Knowshon Moreno, Antonio Brown, Matt Forte, DeSean Jackson, Demaryius Thomas, Vincent Jackson, Wes Welker, Jimmy Graham
Tier 3: Frank Gore, Victor Cruz
Tier 4: Keenan Allen, Andre Brown, Eric Decker, Ty Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald, Jordan Reed, Ben Tate, Cecil Shorts, Josh Gordon, Eddie Lacy, Alfred Morris, Alshon Jeffery, Danny Woodhead
Tier 5: Jordy Nelson, Torrey Smith, Julius Thomas, Le'Veon Bell, Giovani Bernard, Chris Johnson, Antonio Gates, Danny Amendola, Andre Ellington
Tier 6: Riley Cooper, Steve Smith, Ray Rice, Harry Douglas, Golden Tate, Rashad Jennings, Roddy White, Mike Wallace
Tier 7: Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis, Jordan Cameron, Marques Colston
Tier 8: Kendall Wright, Hakeem Nicks, Fred Jackson, DeAndre Hopkins, Emmanuel Sanders, Pierre Thomas, Aaron Dobson, Darren Sproles, Percy Harvin, Steve Johnson
Tier 9: Ryan Mathews, Martellus Bennett, Maurice Jones-Drew, Brian Leonard, Lamar Miller, Anquan Boldin, Brian Hartline, Steven Jackson, Michael Floyd, Stevan Ridley, Dwayne Bowe, Shane Vereen
Tier 10: C.J. Spiller, Jarrett Boykin, Rishard Matthews