Week 8 - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Tiers

Week 8 byes: San Francisco, New York Giants

All charts have been updated for Week 8 and well as rest-of-season. See menu on the right hand side.


In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

Waiver Wire Adds for Week 8:

Here are candidate waiver wire adds based on early flex rankings week 8 from Fantasypros.com.

Tier 1 (should be owned in 10 team leagues - worth top wavier):
Tre Mason - RB (Flex 50)

Tier 2 (should be owned in deeper 10 team leagues - worth mid waiver):
Bryce Brown - RB (Flex 64)
Denard Robinson - RB/WR (Flex 77)
Doug Baldwin - WR (Flex 56)

Tier 3 (should be owned in 12 team leagues - worth low waiver):
Allen Robinson - WR (Flex 85)
Davante Adams - WR (Flex 86)
Andrew Hawkins - WR (Flex 88)

Tier 4 (should be owned in 14 team leagues - not worth waiver):
Jonathan Stewart - RB (Flex 100)
Jermaine Kearse - WR (Flex 105)
Charles Clay - TE (Flex 107)
Kenny Stills - WR (Flex 109)
Benny Cunningham - RB (Flex 116)
Anthony Dixon - RB (Flex 120)
Stevie Johnson - WR (bye)

The reason why I'm hesitant to burn a top waiver on Bryce Brown is that this is a partially speculative add (if you're desperate and will be starting him, then that's a different story). Brown has an impressive resume (190 carries for 878 yards, 4.62 YPC), but we're not sure how much the action will be split between Brown and Anthony Dixon.  We're also looking at estimated 4 week return window for Fred Jackson, and the Bills are on bye next week.

I like Doug Bladwin as a mid or low waiver add, but only if you're struggling at WR. The Seahawks offense should open up now that there's no pressure to force feed Percy Harvin, but this is still a run heavy team, and Kearse is talented. I see Baldwin as a WR3 down the road, but not sure he'll offer much trade value.

The tier 3 group should have been owned weeks ago. Allen Robinson is my favorite of this group, and I like him over Cecil Shorts over the rest of the season. Davante Adams is enticing in that there aren't many players such that if one of two players goes down, he becomes a weekly WR1.


(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts.  Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. 

(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.

(3) When do you update the charts?

(5) The New York Times chart says "Aug 6, 2014". Is it updated?
Yes, the date reflects when the very first chart went up.  The charts are updated weekly and often.