In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your line up.
Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. Tiers are preferred over ranks, as it allow you to see the true distance between players, which is not as linear as a ranked list suggests. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.
Waiver Tips:
(1) These are early tiers for to assist you with waivers. They are very noisy. I would NOT use this to set your line up yet -- wait for the Thursday update when more data is available.
(2) When a player on the waiver is highly likely to start for you, consider using a high claim or higher bid.
FAQ:
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts. Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them.
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.
(3) When do you update the charts?
The main update comes Thursday afternoon. Sometime there will be an early Tuesday version.
(4) Can you do this with Fantasypros' Rest-of-Season rankings?
This was tried last year (example), however we saw that the data seemed constantly outdated. I suspect that many experts submit outdated RoS rankings.
(5) The New York Times chart says "Aug 6, 2014". Is it updated?
Yes, the date reflects when the very first chart went up. The charts are updated weekly and often.
Standard Charts:
QB link: Standard - Quarterbacks
RB link: Standard - Running backs
WR link: Standard - Wide Receivers
TE link: Standard - Tight Ends
K link: Standard - Kickers
DST link: Standard - Defense and special teams
Tier 2: Ahmad Bradshaw, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Michael Floyd, Roddy White, Mike Wallace, Branden Oliver
Tier 3: Justin Forsett
Tier 4: Matt Asiata, Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, Larry Fitzgerald, Delanie Walker, Reggie Wayne, Ronnie Hillman
Tier 5: Alfred Morris, Keenan Allen, Ty Hilton, Pierre Garcon, Brian Quick, Fred Jackson, Eric Decker
Tier 6: C.J. Spiller, Antonio Gates, Allen Hurns
Tier 7: Golden Tate, Doug Martin, Steven Jackson, Jordan Cameron, DeSean Jackson, Greg Olsen, Shane Vereen, Justin Hunter
Tier 8: Zac Stacy, Trent Richardson
Tier 9: Andrew Hawkins, Michael Crabtree, Joique Bell, Sammy Watkins, Christopher Ivory, Kendall Wright, Andre Williams
Tier 10: Reggie Bush, Andre Holmes, Odell Beckham Jr., Allen Robinson, Martellus Bennett, Brandon LaFell, Darren Sproles, Larry Donnell
Tier 11: Torrey Smith, Cordarrelle Patterson, Jason Witten, Markus Wheaton
Half PPR RB
Tier 2: Giovani Bernard, Le'Veon Bell, Andre Ellington, DeMarco Murray
Tier 3: Eddie Lacy, Ben Tate, Lamar Miller, Frank Gore
Tier 4: Ahmad Bradshaw, Justin Forsett, Matt Asiata, Branden Oliver, Alfred Morris
Tier 5: Fred Jackson, Steven Jackson, Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller
Tier 6: Andre Williams, Zac Stacy, Shane Vereen, Christopher Ivory, Trent Richardson, Joique Bell, Reggie Bush
Tier 7: Darren Sproles, Jonathan Stewart
Tier 8: Ronnie Hillman, Shonn Greene, Jeremy Hill, Stevan Ridley, Donald Brown, Bishop Sankey, Darren McFadden
Tier 9: Bobby Rainey, Jacquizz Rodgers, Chris Johnson
Half PPR TE
Tier 2: Greg Olsen, Antonio Gates, Jordan Cameron
Tier 3: Jason Witten, Larry Donnell, Jordan Reed, Heath Miller, Zach Ertz
Tier 4: Martellus Bennett, Owen Daniels
Tier 5: Eric Ebron, Vernon Davis, Jared Cook, Dwayne Allen
Tier 6: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Luke Willson, Coby Fleener, Charles Clay, Garrett Graham, Levine Toilolo
Tier 7: Niles Paul, Ladarius Green, Timothy Wright
Half PPR WR
Tier 2: A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Emmanuel Sanders, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb
Tier 3: Jeremy Maclin, Vincent Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Andre Johnson
Tier 4: Wes Welker, Kelvin Benjamin, Percy Harvin, Roddy White, Michael Floyd, DeAndre Hopkins, Steve Smith, Julian Edelman
Tier 5: Mike Wallace, Rueben Randle, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald, Keenan Allen
Tier 6: Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Ty Hilton, Allen Hurns, Brian Quick, Golden Tate
Tier 7: DeSean Jackson, Justin Hunter, Michael Crabtree
Tier 8: Eric Decker, Andrew Hawkins, Sammy Watkins, Kendall Wright
Tier 9: Brandon LaFell, Odell Beckham Jr., Andre Holmes, Torrey Smith, Allen Robinson
Tier 10: Harry Douglas, Markus Wheaton, Miles Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Terrance Williams, James Jones
Tier 11: Louis Murphy, Marvin Jones, John Brown, Eddie Royal, Greg Jennings
Tier 12: Hakeem Nicks, Mohamed Sanu, Anquan Boldin, Doug Baldwin, Jordan Matthews
PPR Flex
Tier 2: Roddy White, Steve Smith, Lamar Miller, Justin Forsett, Mike Wallace, Julian Edelman, Ben Tate, Victor Cruz, Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Quick, Delanie Walker
Tier 4: Golden Tate, Kelvin Benjamin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Rueben Randle, Antonio Gates, Frank Gore, Michael Floyd, Ty Hilton
Tier 5: Reggie Wayne, Greg Olsen, Keenan Allen
Tier 6: Branden Oliver, Larry Fitzgerald, Pierre Garcon, Ronnie Hillman
Tier 7: Michael Crabtree, Kendall Wright, DeSean Jackson, Andrew Hawkins
Tier 8: Matt Asiata, Andre Williams, Shane Vereen, Fred Jackson, Allen Robinson, Sammy Watkins, Steven Jackson, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Allen Hurns
Tier 9: Justin Hunter, Jason Witten, Jordan Cameron, Mohamed Sanu
Tier 10: Odell Beckham Jr., C.J. Spiller, Zac Stacy, Andre Holmes, Terrance Williams, Joique Bell, Martellus Bennett, Christopher Ivory, Larry Donnell
Tier 11: Heath Miller, Owen Daniels, Dwayne Allen
Tier 12: Eric Ebron, Anquan Boldin, Zach Ertz
Tier 1: Arian Foster, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch
Tier 2: LeSean McCoy, Giovani Bernard, Andre Ellington, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 3: Ben Tate, DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy, Lamar Miller, Justin Forsett
Tier 4: Frank Gore, Ahmad Bradshaw, Matt Asiata
Tier 5: Doug Martin, Branden Oliver, Alfred Morris
Tier 6: Shane Vereen, Steven Jackson
Tier 7: Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Trent Richardson, Andre Williams, Zac Stacy
Tier 8: Ronnie Hillman, Joique Bell, Christopher Ivory, Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Shonn Greene
Tier 9: Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Stevan Ridley, Jeremy Hill
Tier 10: Jacquizz Rodgers, Donald Brown, Bishop Sankey
Tier 11: Robert Turbin, Dexter McCluster
Tier 2: Delanie Walker, Greg Olsen, Antonio Gates, Jordan Cameron
Tier 3: Jason Witten
Tier 4: Heath Miller, Larry Donnell, Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz, Owen Daniels
Tier 5: Eric Ebron, Martellus Bennett, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Vernon Davis, Dwayne Allen, Jared Cook
Tier 6: Luke Willson, Coby Fleener, Charles Clay, Levine Toilolo, Garrett Graham
Tier 7: Niles Paul, Ladarius Green
Tier 8: Brandon Myers
PPR WR
Tier 1: Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 2: Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb, Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson
Tier 3: Jeremy Maclin, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Alshon Jeffery
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Kelvin Benjamin, Percy Harvin, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 5: Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace, Larry Fitzgerald, Allen Hurns, Roddy White, Rueben Randle, Steve Smith
Tier 6: Brian Quick, Keenan Allen, Reggie Wayne, Victor Cruz
Tier 7: Golden Tate, Ty Hilton, Pierre Garcon, Justin Hunter
Tier 8: Eric Decker, Andrew Hawkins, DeSean Jackson, Michael Crabtree
Tier 9: Brandon LaFell, Kendall Wright, Sammy Watkins, Andre Holmes, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham Jr.
Tier 10: Harry Douglas, Torrey Smith, Miles Austin
Tier 11: Marvin Jones, Markus Wheaton, Cordarrelle Patterson, Terrance Williams
Tier 12: Louis Murphy, James Jones, John Brown, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, Greg Jennings, Jordan Matthews
Tier 13: Mohamed Sanu, Hakeem Nicks, Doug Baldwin
Tier 2: Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb, Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson
Tier 3: Jeremy Maclin, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker, Alshon Jeffery
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Kelvin Benjamin, Percy Harvin, DeAndre Hopkins
Tier 5: Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace, Larry Fitzgerald, Allen Hurns, Roddy White, Rueben Randle, Steve Smith
Tier 6: Brian Quick, Keenan Allen, Reggie Wayne, Victor Cruz
Tier 7: Golden Tate, Ty Hilton, Pierre Garcon, Justin Hunter
Tier 8: Eric Decker, Andrew Hawkins, DeSean Jackson, Michael Crabtree
Tier 9: Brandon LaFell, Kendall Wright, Sammy Watkins, Andre Holmes, Allen Robinson, Odell Beckham Jr.
Tier 10: Harry Douglas, Torrey Smith, Miles Austin
Tier 11: Marvin Jones, Markus Wheaton, Cordarrelle Patterson, Terrance Williams
Tier 12: Louis Murphy, James Jones, John Brown, Anquan Boldin, Eddie Royal, Greg Jennings, Jordan Matthews
Tier 13: Mohamed Sanu, Hakeem Nicks, Doug Baldwin
