In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your line up each week.
Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for each week. Tiers are preferred over ranks, as it allow you to see the true distance between players, which is not as linear as a ranked list suggests. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.
Tips:
(1) Link: Week 5 in depth commentary on tiers
(2) Always favor higher tier players.
(3) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut.
FAQ:
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts. Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them.
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.
(3) When do you update the charts?
The main update comes Thursday afternoon. Sometime there will be an early Tuesday version.
(4) Can you do this with Fantasypros' Rest-of-Season rankings?
This was tried last year (example), however we saw that the data seemed constantly outdated by 1 or 2 weeks. I suspect that many experts submit outdated RoS rankings.
(5) The New York Times chart says "Aug 6, 2014". Is it updated?
Yes, the date reflects when the very first chart went up for week 1. The charts are updated weekly and often.
Standard Charts:
QB link: Standard - Quarterbacks
RB link: Standard - Running backs
WR link: Standard - Wide Receivers
TE link: Standard - Tight Ends
K link: Standard - Kickers
DST link: Standard - Defense and special teams
Tier 2: Doug Martin, Vincent Jackson, Reggie Bush, Percy Harvin, Roddy White
Tier 3: Michael Floyd, Khiry Robinson, Andre Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Christopher Ivory, Michael Crabtree
Tier 4: Rob Gronkowski, Justin Forsett, Brandin Cooks
Tier 5: Martellus Bennett, C.J. Spiller, Ty Hilton, Wes Welker, Ben Tate
Tier 6: Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Fred Jackson, Larry Donnell, Golden Tate, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 7: Shane Vereen, Cordarrelle Patterson
Tier 8: Greg Olsen, Marques Colston, Sammy Watkins, Bishop Sankey, Donald Brown, Brian Quick, Eric Decker, Delanie Walker, Terrance Williams
Tier 9: Rueben Randle, Darren Sproles, Stevan Ridley, Steven Jackson, Trent Richardson
Tier 10: Travis Kelce, Toby Gerhart, Andrew Hawkins, Jordan Cameron, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, Antonio Gates, Joique Bell
PPR RB
Tier 1: DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Rashad Jennings
Tier 2: Giovani Bernard, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte
Tier 3: Andre Ellington, Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball
Tier 4: Matt Asiata, Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Zac Stacy
Tier 5: Shane Vereen, Frank Gore
Tier 6: Alfred Morris, Justin Forsett, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller
Tier 7: Ahmad Bradshaw, Khiry Robinson, Fred Jackson, Christopher Ivory, Darren Sproles
Tier 8: Donald Brown, Jerick McKinnon
Tier 9: Ben Tate, Trent Richardson, Toby Gerhart
Tier 10: Bishop Sankey, Jeremy Hill, Joique Bell, Steven Jackson, Pierre Thomas
Tier 11: Stevan Ridley, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Chris Johnson, Isaiah Crowell
PPR WR
Tier 1: Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson
Tier 2: Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant
Tier 3: Randall Cobb, Steve Smith, Kelvin Benjamin, Alshon Jeffery, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 4: Vincent Jackson, Michael Crabtree, Victor Cruz, Michael Floyd, Jeremy Maclin, Keenan Allen, Roddy White
Tier 5: Brandon Marshall, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman, Percy Harvin, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker
Tier 6: Brandin Cooks, Pierre Garcon, Larry Fitzgerald, Ty Hilton
Tier 7: Sammy Watkins, Reggie Wayne, Cordarrelle Patterson, Brian Quick
Tier 8: Andrew Hawkins, Marques Colston, Golden Tate, Eric Decker, Markus Wheaton, Greg Jennings, Eddie Royal
Tier 9: DeSean Jackson, Rueben Randle, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Terrance Williams
Tier 10: Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright, Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 11: Harry Douglas, Brandon LaFell, Malcom Floyd, John Brown, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan Matthews, Cecil Shorts
Tier 12: Louis Murphy, Steve Johnson, Devin Hester, Davante Adams
PPR TE
Tier 2: Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker, Martellus Bennett, Larry Donnell
Tier 3: Jordan Cameron, Travis Kelce, Antonio Gates, Heath Miller, Zach Ertz
Tier 4: Owen Daniels, Niles Paul, Jason Witten, Jared Cook, Vernon Davis
Tier 5: Garrett Graham, Dwayne Allen, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Eric Ebron, Jordan Reed, Coby Fleener, Clay Harbor, Jermaine Gresham
Tier 6: Logan Paulsen, Jace Amaro, Brandon Myers, Ladarius Green
Tier 7: Daniel Fells
PPR Flex
Tier 1: Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, Eddie Lacy, Michael Floyd, Jeremy Maclin, Keenan Allen, Roddy White
Tier 2: Montee Ball, Brandon Marshall, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman
Tier 3: Matt Asiata, Arian Foster, Rob Gronkowski, Doug Martin, Percy Harvin, Andre Johnson, Wes Welker
Tier 4: Zac Stacy, Greg Olsen, Brandin Cooks, Pierre Garcon, Larry Fitzgerald, Ty Hilton
Tier 5: Shane Vereen, Frank Gore, Sammy Watkins, Reggie Wayne, Delanie Walker, Cordarrelle Patterson
Tier 6: Justin Forsett, Martellus Bennett, Alfred Morris, Andrew Hawkins, Brian Quick, Marques Colston
Tier 7: Reggie Bush, Larry Donnell, Golden Tate, Eric Decker
Tier 8: C.J. Spiller, Markus Wheaton, Greg Jennings, Ahmad Bradshaw, Eddie Royal
Tier 9: Khiry Robinson, Jordan Cameron, Travis Kelce, DeSean Jackson, Fred Jackson, Rueben Randle, Terrance Williams, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns
Tier 10: Christopher Ivory, Antonio Gates, Darren Sproles, Heath Miller, Zach Ertz, Torrey Smith, Kendall Wright
Half point PPR RB
Tier 1: DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, Rashad Jennings
Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Giovani Bernard, Jamaal Charles
Tier 3: Eddie Lacy, Andre Ellington
Tier 4: Arian Foster, Montee Ball, Matt Asiata, Zac Stacy, Doug Martin, Frank Gore
Tier 5: Alfred Morris
Tier 6: Reggie Bush, Shane Vereen, Justin Forsett, Ahmad Bradshaw, Khiry Robinson, C.J. Spiller
Tier 7: Christopher Ivory, Fred Jackson
Tier 8: Darren Sproles, Ben Tate, Donald Brown
Tier 9: Bishop Sankey, Trent Richardson, Toby Gerhart, Jerick McKinnon, Steven Jackson, Joique Bell, Stevan Ridley, Jeremy Hill
Tier 10: Pierre Thomas, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Isaiah Crowell, Chris Johnson
Half point PPR WR
Tier 2: Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, Kelvin Benjamin, Steve Smith
Tier 3: Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 4: Vincent Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Victor Cruz, Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Michael Floyd, Roddy White
Tier 5: DeAndre Hopkins, Percy Harvin, Julian Edelman, Andre Johnson
Tier 6: Brandin Cooks, Wes Welker, Pierre Garcon, Ty Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 7: Reggie Wayne, Cordarrelle Patterson, Sammy Watkins, Brian Quick
Tier 8: Marques Colston, Golden Tate, Andrew Hawkins, Eric Decker
Tier 9: Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, Rueben Randle, Markus Wheaton, Terrance Williams
Tier 10: Allen Hurns, Torrey Smith, Allen Robinson, Kendall Wright, Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 11: Malcom Floyd, John Brown, Jordan Matthews
Tier 12: Brandon LaFell, Harry Douglas, Cecil Shorts, Hakeem Nicks, Miles Austin, Mohamed Sanu
Tier 13: Steve Johnson, Devin Hester
Half point PPR TE
Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas
Tier 2: Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett, Delanie Walker, Larry Donnell
Tier 3: Jordan Cameron, Travis Kelce, Antonio Gates, Heath Miller, Zach Ertz
Tier 4: Niles Paul, Jason Witten, Owen Daniels, Vernon Davis, Jared Cook, Dwayne Allen
Tier 5: Garrett Graham, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jordan Reed, Coby Fleener, Eric Ebron, Clay Harbor
Tier 6: Jermaine Gresham, Logan Paulsen, Brandon Myers, Luke Willson, Josh Hill, Ladarius Green
Half point PPR Flex
Tier 1: Emmanuel Sanders, Arian Foster, Jeremy Maclin, Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall
Tier 2: Matt Asiata, Michael Floyd, Michael Crabtree, Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, Roddy White, Frank Gore
Tier 3: Percy Harvin, DeAndre Hopkins, Julian Edelman
Tier 4: Alfred Morris, Rob Gronkowski, Andre Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Wes Welker
Tier 5: Pierre Garcon, Reggie Bush, Ty Hilton, Justin Forsett, Greg Olsen, Larry Fitzgerald, Shane Vereen
Tier 6: Ahmad Bradshaw, Khiry Robinson, Martellus Bennett, Reggie Wayne, C.J. Spiller, Cordarrelle Patterson, Sammy Watkins
Tier 7: Christopher Ivory, Delanie Walker, Larry Donnell, Marques Colston, Brian Quick, Golden Tate
Tier 8: Fred Jackson, Eric Decker, Andrew Hawkins
Tier 9: Greg Jennings, Darren Sproles, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson, Jordan Cameron, Terrance Williams, Markus Wheaton, Rueben Randle, Ben Tate
Tier 10: Travis Kelce, Donald Brown, Antonio Gates
Tier 11: Heath Miller, Torrey Smith, Zach Ertz, Allen Hurns
