In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called the Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your line up each week.
Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for each week. Tiers are preferred over ranks, as it allow you to see the true distance between players, which is not as linear as a ranked list suggests. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.
Waiver Tips:
(1) These are early tiers for week 5 to assist you with waivers. I would NOT use this to set your line up yet -- wait for the Thursday update when more data is available.
(2) When a player on the waiver is highly likely to start for you next week, consider using a high claim or higher bid.
FAQ:
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts. Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them.
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.
(3) When do you update the charts?
The main update comes Thursday afternoon. Sometime there will be an early Tuesday version.
(4) Can you do this with Fantasypros' Rest-of-Season rankings?
This was tried last year (example), however we saw that the data seemed constantly outdated by 1 or 2 weeks. I suspect that many experts submit outdated RoS rankings.
(5) The New York Times chart says "Aug 6, 2014". Is it updated?
Yes, the date reflects when the very first chart went up for week 1. The charts are updated weekly and often.
Standard Charts:
QB link: Standard - Quarterbacks
RB link: Standard - Running backs
WR link: Standard - Wide Receivers
TE link: Standard - Tight Ends
K link: Standard - Kickers
DST link: Standard - Defense and special teams
Tier 1: Frank Gore, Keenan Allen, Alfred Morris, Julius Thomas, Matt Asiata, Jeremy Maclin, Kelvin Benjamin
Tier 2: Vincent Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Steve Smith, Victor Cruz, Percy Harvin, Andre Johnson, Roddy White
Tier 3: Doug Martin, Michael Floyd, Reggie Bush
Tier 4: Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Crabtree
Tier 5: Brandin Cooks, Ahmad Bradshaw
Tier 6: Justin Forsett, Khiry Robinson, Wes Welker, Martellus Bennett, Christopher Ivory, Pierre Garcon, Cordarrelle Patterson, Ben Tate
Tier 7: Larry Donnell, Larry Fitzgerald, Stevan Ridley, C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson, Greg Olsen, Ty Hilton, Marques Colston
Tier 8: Joique Bell, Donald Brown, Golden Tate, Delanie Walker, Reggie Wayne, Steven Jackson, Shane Vereen, Brian Quick
Tier 9: Rueben Randle, Eric Decker, Toby Gerhart, Jordan Cameron, Greg Jennings, DeSean Jackson
Tier 10: Sammy Watkins, Terrance Williams, Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, Eddie Royal
Tier 11: Trent Richardson, Torrey Smith, Andrew Hawkins
PPR RB
Tier 1: DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 2: Rashad Jennings, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Giovani Bernard, Matt Forte
Tier 3: Montee Ball, Andre Ellington, Eddie Lacy
Tier 4: Matt Asiata, Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Shane Vereen
Tier 5: Zac Stacy, Justin Forsett, Alfred Morris, Frank Gore
Tier 6: C.J. Spiller
Tier 7: Reggie Bush, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Khiry Robinson
Tier 8: Donald Brown, Darren Sproles, Christopher Ivory, Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate
Tier 9: Jerick McKinnon, Jeremy Hill, Joique Bell, Stevan Ridley, Steven Jackson
Tier 10: Trent Richardson, Pierre Thomas, Isaiah Crowell, Lorenzo Taliaferro, DeAngelo Williams
Tier 11: Knile Davis
PPR TE
Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Delanie Walker, Greg Olsen
Tier 2: Martellus Bennett, Jordan Cameron, Larry Donnell
Tier 3: Antonio Gates
Tier 4: Zach Ertz, Heath Miller, Niles Paul, Travis Kelce
Tier 5: Jason Witten, Jared Cook, Vernon Davis
Tier 6: Owen Daniels, Coby Fleener, Eric Ebron, Dwayne Allen, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Tier 7: Jermaine Gresham, Garrett Graham, Levine Toilolo
Tier 8: Brandon Myers, Logan Paulsen
PPR WR
Tier 1: Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson
Tier 2: Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb
Tier 3: Kelvin Benjamin, Steve Smith, Alshon Jeffery, Vincent Jackson
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Emmanuel Sanders, Michael Crabtree, Keenan Allen, Jeremy Maclin, Roddy White, Brandon Marshall
Tier 5: Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, DeAndre Hopkins, Andre Johnson
Tier 6: Percy Harvin, Larry Fitzgerald, Pierre Garcon, Brandin Cooks, Julian Edelman
Tier 7: Cordarrelle Patterson, Sammy Watkins, Ty Hilton, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Brian Quick
Tier 8: Eric Decker, Andrew Hawkins, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson
Tier 9: Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, Markus Wheaton, Rueben Randle, Golden Tate, Torrey Smith, Terrance Williams, Kendall Wright
Tier 10: Dwayne Bowe, Anquan Boldin, Harry Douglas, John Brown
Tier 11: Cecil Shorts, Brandon LaFell, Mohamed Sanu, Jordan Matthews, Justin Hunter, Malcom Floyd, Miles Austin
Tier 12: Hakeem Nicks, Marvin Jones
PPR Flex
Tier 1: Michael Crabtree, Michael Floyd, Keenan Allen
Tier 2: Andre Ellington, Roddy White, Wes Welker, Jeremy Maclin, Eddie Lacy
Tier 3: Brandon Marshall, Victor Cruz, DeAndre Hopkins, Rob Gronkowski, Matt Asiata, Andre Johnson
Tier 4: Percy Harvin, Larry Fitzgerald, Doug Martin, Shane Vereen, Pierre Garcon, Brandin Cooks
Tier 5: Arian Foster, Julian Edelman, Delanie Walker
Tier 6: Justin Forsett, Cordarrelle Patterson, Greg Olsen, Sammy Watkins, Zac Stacy, Ty Hilton, Alfred Morris
Tier 7: Frank Gore, Greg Jennings, Marques Colston, Brian Quick
Tier 8: Reggie Wayne, Martellus Bennett, C.J. Spiller, Larry Donnell, Jordan Cameron, Eric Decker, Eddie Royal
Tier 9: Andrew Hawkins, DeSean Jackson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Fred Jackson, Allen Robinson
Tier 10: Markus Wheaton, Allen Hurns, Reggie Bush
Tier 11: Rueben Randle, Antonio Gates, Torrey Smith, Zach Ertz, Khiry Robinson, Golden Tate, Donald Brown
Tier 12: Kendall Wright, Terrance Williams, Heath Miller, Toby Gerhart, Darren Sproles
Half point PPR RB
Tier 1: DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch, Rashad Jennings, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Giovani Bernard, Jamaal Charles
Tier 3: Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball, Andre Ellington, Arian Foster, Matt Asiata
Tier 4: Zac Stacy, Doug Martin, Frank Gore, Alfred Morris
Tier 5: Justin Forsett, Shane Vereen, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Khiry Robinson, Fred Jackson
Tier 6: Christopher Ivory, Donald Brown, Ben Tate
Tier 7: Toby Gerhart, Stevan Ridley, Darren Sproles
Tier 8: Joique Bell, Steven Jackson, Jeremy Hill, Jerick McKinnon
Tier 9: Isaiah Crowell, Trent Richardson, Pierre Thomas, Lorenzo Taliaferro, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams
Half point PPR TE
Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas
Tier 2: Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker, Larry Donnell, Jordan Cameron
Tier 3: Antonio Gates, Zach Ertz, Heath Miller, Travis Kelce, Jason Witten, Niles Paul, Vernon Davis
Tier 4: Dwayne Allen, Owen Daniels, Jared Cook, Coby Fleener, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Tier 5: Eric Ebron, Garrett Graham
Tier 6: Brandon Myers, Clay Harbor, Luke Willson, Jermaine Gresham
Half point PPR WR
Tier 1: Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson
Tier 2: A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb
Tier 3: Alshon Jeffery, Kelvin Benjamin, Steve Smith, Vincent Jackson, Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Jeremy Maclin, Victor Cruz, Michael Crabtree, Roddy White
Tier 5: Andre Johnson, Percy Harvin, DeAndre Hopkins, Wes Welker
Tier 6: Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks, Pierre Garcon, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 7: Cordarrelle Patterson, Ty Hilton, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Sammy Watkins, Brian Quick
Tier 8: Greg Jennings, Eric Decker, Eddie Royal
Tier 9: DeSean Jackson, Andrew Hawkins, Golden Tate, Rueben Randle
Tier 10: Markus Wheaton, Terrance Williams, Allen Hurns, Torrey Smith, Allen Robinson, Kendall Wright
Tier 11: Anquan Boldin, Dwayne Bowe, John Brown, Malcom Floyd
Tier 12: Cecil Shorts, Harry Douglas, Brandon LaFell, Justin Hunter, Jordan Matthews, Mohamed Sanu, Miles Austin
Tier 13: Hakeem Nicks, Marvin Jones
Half point PPR Flex
Tier 1: Julius Thomas, Keenan Allen, Brandon Marshall, Emmanuel Sanders
Tier 2: Jeremy Maclin, Michael Floyd, Arian Foster, Victor Cruz, Roddy White, Matt Asiata, Michael Crabtree, Andre Johnson
Tier 3: Percy Harvin, DeAndre Hopkins, Zac Stacy, Doug Martin, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Frank Gore
Tier 4: Julian Edelman, Alfred Morris
Tier 5: Pierre Garcon, Brandin Cooks, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 6: Justin Forsett, Greg Olsen, Martellus Bennett, Cordarrelle Patterson, Shane Vereen, Delanie Walker
Tier 7: Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, Ty Hilton, C.J. Spiller, Ahmad Bradshaw, Larry Donnell, Reggie Wayne, Sammy Watkins, Fred Jackson, Khiry Robinson
Tier 8: Jordan Cameron, Brian Quick, Eric Decker
Tier 9: Greg Jennings, Christopher Ivory, DeSean Jackson, Donald Brown, Golden Tate, Andrew Hawkins, Rueben Randle, Eddie Royal
Tier 10: Terrance Williams, Markus Wheaton, Antonio Gates, Toby Gerhart, Darren Sproles, Allen Hurns, Stevan Ridley, Allen Robinson, Zach Ertz, Torrey Smith
