In this fantasy football model, I take select expert ranking data from FantasyPros.com and pass it into a statistical clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data.
Other charts are accessible from the menu.
The experts in the select pool are chosen based on individual experts' accuracy and have demonstrated consistent accuracy above the rest over several seasons. The list is:
John Paulsen, 4for4.com
Jeff Ratcliffe, Pro Football Focus
Justin Boone, theScore
Jake Ciely, RotoExperts
Mike Clay, ESPN
Patrick Thorman, Pro Football Focus
Sean Koerner, STATS
Sablich Brothers, 5th Down Fantasy
The results are a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up each week. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.
Questions or comments? Find me on Twitter at @borisachen.
How to use these charts
(1) Favor higher tier players.
(2) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. If experts are 50/50, there's no wrong choice.
(3) Fill your non-Flex positions first. Then use the Flex charts.
(4) Charts update every day. Check back Thursday, Sunday and Monday before game time.
(4) Charts update every day. Check back Thursday, Sunday and Monday before game time.
