All charts have been updated for [Week 9] as well as [rest-of-season]. See menu on the right hand side.
Introduction
In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.
Waiver Wire Adds for Week 9
Here are candidate waiver wire adds (with early flex rankings week 8 from Fantasypros.com next to each name).
Tier 1 (should be owned in 10 team leagues - worth top wavier):
Brandon LaFell (52)
Jonathan Stewart (64)
Allen Robinson (63)
Bobby Rainey (74)
Charles Sims (138)
Andrew Hawkins (68)
Jonas Gray (89)
Lorenzo Taliaferro (83)
Donte Moncrief (87)
Donte Moncrief (87)
Tier 3 (should be owned in 14 team leagues - generally not worth waiver):
Martavis Bryant (99)
Davante Adams (bye)
John Brown (98)
Theo Riddick (bye)
Kenny Stills (94)
Markus Wheaton (104)
Tier 4 (week to week plug-in):
Tier 4 (week to week plug-in):
Tim Wright (128)
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (129)
Charles Sims could be worth a higher waiver if you're desperate at RB. Andrew Hawkins is a good short term pick up, but keep in mind Josh Gordon will return in week 12. Jonas Gray will be a weekly roller coaster, as Bill Belichick's running back usage is completely unpredictable. John Brown and Davante Adams are in similar situations, as they're both the WR3 of their teams. Their usage will also be up and down as we saw both able to outscore their WR1's this week (Jordy Nelson and Michael Floyd), but I wouldn't count on that happening. Donte Moncrief looked incredible, but how he shares time with Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne will dictate his fantasy range.
FAQ:
(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts. Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them.
(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.
(3) When do you update the charts?
Daily.
(4) The New York Times chart says "Aug 6, 2014". Is it updated?
Yes, the date reflects when the very first chart went up. The charts are updated weekly and often.
