A 2013 Season Retrospective

Let's rewind and look at the 2013 season. Here are the tier accuracies for each week since week 6 (accuracy = percent of time the higher tier ends up scoring more than a lower tier):

Week	QB	RB	WR	TE	K	DST
6	50	100	90	73.3	66.7	80
7	90	80	86.7	80	50	83.3
8	100	90	73.3	86.7	83.3	100
9	80	100	86.7	90	83.3	80
10	90	86.7	71.4	60	33.3	50
11	90	90	86.7	80	66.7	83.3
12	70	77.8	61.1	73.3	30	80
13	60	63.4	78.8	66.7	20	70
14	80	64.3	78.6	60	70	50
15	60	90.5	86.7	80	50	30
16	60	85.7	73.3	86.7	80	30
Average	75.5	84.4	79.4	76.1	57.6	67

Ranked by accuracy, we have:

1. RB - 84.4%

2. WR - 79.4%

3. TE - 76.1%

4. QB - 75.5%

5. DST - 67%

6. K - 57.6%

RB and WR are the most predictable. Next is TE and QB. Finally DST tiers hold 2 out of 3 times and predicting K is only slightly better than random.

Now let's look back at the top 32 draft ranks from pre-season (by fantasypros, full sheet here)

Rank	Position	Player Name	Ave Rank	std dev/2
1	RB	Adrian Peterson	1	0.3
2	RB	Doug Martin	3	0.8
3	RB	Jamaal Charles	4	1.0
4	RB	C.J. Spiller	5	1.7
5	RB	LeSean McCoy	7	1.5
6	RB	Marshawn Lynch	7	1.9
7	RB	Arian Foster	8	2.0
8	RB	Trent Richardson	8	1.6
9	RB	Ray Rice	8	1.2
10	WR	Calvin Johnson	8	1.3
11	RB	Alfred Morris	13	2.8
12	WR	Dez Bryant	15	2.0
13	WR	A.J. Green	15	1.8
14	WR	Brandon Marshall	17	1.7
15	TE	Jimmy Graham	17	2.8
16	RB	Matt Forte	16	2.8
17	WR	Julio Jones	20	2.1
18	WR	Demaryius Thomas	21	2.0
19	RB	Steven Jackson	19	3.6
20	QB	Drew Brees	23	4.2
21	QB	Aaron Rodgers	23	4.2
22	RB	Stevan Ridley	21	4.7
23	RB	Chris Johnson	22	3.8
24	WR	Larry Fitzgerald	26	2.9
25	RB	Maurice Jones-Drew	24	4.3
26	WR	Roddy White	29	2.7
27	WR	Andre Johnson	30	3.3
28	WR	Randall Cobb	32	3.2
29	WR	Vincent Jackson	32	3.0
30	WR	Victor Cruz	32	2.4
31	RB	Frank Gore	31	5.5
32	RB	Reggie Bush	31	4.8

Out of 32 players, we have 2 QB's and 1 TE and the rest are either RB or WR's. In hindsight, this top 32 list makes a lot of sense.

Thanks everyone for a following this season.  I'll be posting some tiered charts for fantasy baseball next week - stay tuned via twitter.