Fantasy Football Week 9 Tiers

Week 9 byes: Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Tennessee

Charts:

Charts are on the menu on the right.
Week 9 - QB | WR | RB | TE | Flex | K | DST

In this fantasy football model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a statistical clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model.  The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up each week. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.

Tips:

(1) NYTimes link: [Week 9 in-depth commentary]
(2) Favor higher tier players. 
(3) When choosing between players of the same tier, flip a coin or go with your gut. If experts are 50/50, there's no telling.


Rest of Season:

I'm also happy to announce the return of ROS tiers. View them here:
ROS: QB - RB - WR - TE - K - DST


Select Week 8 Questions and Answers

Why are experts high Mike Wallace this week?
A lot of players are going to seem high this week because of the sheer number of high quality players on bye, especially at wide receiver. Wallace has been in the Benjamin/Sanders/Steve Smith range for a while now. The entire Miami offense oddly didn't get much going last week against the Jags thanks to their defense and Bortles throwing TWO pick 6's, but Tannehill and Wallace have been connecting on pretty much every other week. They'll shuffle around each week based on matchups, but Steve Smith, Wallace and Benjamin should always be around the same range -- call it the WR1's of slightly above average teams range.

How does Vincent Jackson continue to be ranked so high?
I'm calling last week a low outlier for TB. The Vikings came out with tons of QB pressure, tallying 5 sacks and only allowed 28 passing attempts for Glennon, which is very low for a quarter back (even Mettenberger threw 41 last week). Targets are one of the best indications of fantasy points, and Jackson is 15th in targets on the year (65). Keep in mind Glennon only came in starting week 3. Tampa Bay's bad defense also helps VJax. We're down 8 top wide receivers because of bye weeks. Looking at the other guys in this range we have Garcon, Fitzgerald, Keenan Allen... none whom have been consistent. Only one of Desean and Garcon seems to go off each week -- we'll see if RG3 can throw enough for both them and Jordan Reed. Fitzgerald only has 2 good games on the year. We all know how Keenan has been; San Diego has Gates/Royal/Floyd to spread to. The floor is pretty low with everyone outside the top 13 this week, even Terrence Williams, who has 2 catches or less in 5 of 8 games this year (not to mention Romo being questionable). This should be a low scoring week at WR across the board.

You seem to think highly of Michael Floyd moving forward.. But why?
Floyd is still the best fantasy receiver in Arizona is most experts eyes. I attribute Floyd's slump entirely to Palmer being out, and Palmer has been getting better each week in terms of both health and fantasy purposes. It looks to be evening out a little between Fitzgerald and John Brown, but you shouldn't go running for the hills when someone puts up a 0. It's part of the variance in fantasy football, especially at the WR position. Even Calvin Johnson put up 4 games of 50 yards or less last season. Floyd has the talent and will be playing on nearly every snap, the second of which is more important and can't be said about John Brown. That said, Arizona does has a rough schedule coming up, so I understand a little concern. But I like Floyd ROS in the same range of (if not a little higher than) Keenan Allen, Golden Tate, Desean Jackson, Roddy White, and Rueben Randle. I would put Floyd below Vincent Jackson, Steve Smith, and Andre Johnson though.

Any thoughts on Denard Robinson and Sanu? Can we trust Denard to keep performing?
Denard looks like he's secured the starting role in Jacksonville. Neither Storm Johnson or Toby Gerhart have been threatening. I'm not very high on Sanu with AJ Green returning. Sanu is an obvious sell high candidate in my book. We just haven't seen him produce when AJ Green is on the field. Sure, Sanu has improved from last year, but in 2013 when Green was around, Sanu posted just 455 yards and 2 TDs in 16 games. I have much less faith in Sanu than Denard for the rest of the season.


FAQ:

(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts.  Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. Flex tiers are always one of the more debatable charts.

(2) How accurate are these tiers?
Here is a link to last year's accuracy.

(3) When do you update the charts?
Every day. Check the last updated timestamp.

Fantasy Football - Week 9 - Trade Value Chart

Here's my iteration of a trade value chart. Values are calculated from select rest of season data from Fantasypros.com, and roughly represent value based on a 12 team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, standard scoring league.

I recommend adjusting them for your own league dynamics and settings -- add X points to quarterbacks if quarterbacks are in higher demand in your league; add Y points to wide receivers if you start 3 wide receivers. Margin of debate is +/- 2 points, so I would consider any trade within 4 points to be fair. This is merely a starting point to help assess trades and discussion.

PlayerTeamValuePosition
DeMarco MurrayDAL49RB
Matt ForteCHI49RB
Jamaal CharlesKC48RB
Demaryius ThomasDEN47WR
Antonio BrownPIT46WR
Jordy NelsonGB46WR
Arian FosterHOU45RB
Le'Veon BellPIT45RB
LeSean McCoyPHI45RB
Dez BryantDAL44WR
Peyton ManningDEN44QB
Marshawn LynchSEA44RB
Giovani BernardCIN43RB
Julio JonesATL43WR
Eddie LacyGB42RB
A.J. GreenCIN41WR
Andre EllingtonARI41RB
Rob GronkowskiNE41TE
Calvin JohnsonDET41WR
Andrew LuckIND41QB
Randall CobbGB40WR
Aaron RodgersGB40QB
Jimmy GrahamNO40TE
Julius ThomasDEN40TE
Lamar MillerMIA40RB
Ty HiltonIND38WR
Jeremy MaclinPHI38WR
Brandon MarshallCHI38WR
Drew BreesNO37QB
Emmanuel SandersDEN37WR
Alfred MorrisWAS37RB
Justin ForsettBAL35RB
Ahmad BradshawIND35RB
Ronnie HillmanDEN34RB
Alshon JefferyCHI34WR
Kelvin BenjaminCAR34WR
Sammy WatkinsBUF33WR
Philip RiversSD32QB
Mike WallaceMIA32WR
Shane VereenNE32RB
Christopher IvoryNYJ32RB
Ben TateCLE32RB
Frank GoreSF32RB
Jerick McKinnonMIN31RB
Joique BellDET31RB
Rashad JenningsNYG31RB
Vincent JacksonTB31WR
Greg OlsenCAR31TE
Mark IngramNO30RB
Tom BradyNE29QB
Antonio GatesSD29TE
Steve SmithBAL29WR
Martellus BennettCHI28TE
Andre JohnsonHOU28WR
Russell WilsonSEA28QB
Reggie BushDET27RB
Michael FloydARI26WR
Branden OliverSD26RB
Keenan AllenSD25WR
Nick FolesPHI25QB
Matthew StaffordDET25QB
Jay CutlerCHI25QB
DeSean JacksonWAS25WR
Roddy WhiteATL24WR
Cam NewtonCAR23QB
Rueben RandleNYG23WR
Golden TateDET23WR
Pierre GarconWAS23WR
Delanie WalkerTEN22TE
Ryan MathewsSD22RB
Colin KaepernickSF21QB
Doug MartinTB20RB
Denard RobinsonJAC20RB
Bishop SankeyTEN20RB
Matt RyanATL19QB
Trent RichardsonIND19RB
Tre MasonSTL19RB
Julian EdelmanNE18WR
Brandin CooksNO18WR
Larry DonnellNYG17TE
Jeremy HillCIN17RB
Percy HarvinNYJ17WR
Jordan ReedWAS17TE
Travis KelceKC17TE
Tony RomoDAL16QB
Larry FitzgeraldARI16WR
Michael CrabtreeSF16WR
Ben RoethlisbergerPIT16QB
Darren SprolesPHI15RB
Andre WilliamsNYG15RB
Dwayne AllenIND15TE
Vernon DavisSF14TE
Pierre ThomasNO14RB
DeAndre HopkinsHOU14WR
Fred JacksonBUF14RB
Darren McFaddenOAK14RB
Reggie WayneIND14WR
Eric DeckerNYJ13WR
Terrance WilliamsDAL13WR
Brandon LaFellNE13WR
Steven JacksonATL13RB
Jonas GrayNE12RB
Zach ErtzPHI12TE
Charles SimsTB11RB
Josh GordonCLE11WR
Torrey SmithBAL11WR
Odell Beckham Jr.NYG10WR
Andre HolmesOAK10WR
Marques ColstonNO10WR
Montee BallDEN10RB
Jordan CameronCLE9TE
Carson PalmerARI9QB
Doug BaldwinSEA9WR
Eli ManningNYG8QB
Lorenzo TaliaferroBAL7RB
Knile DavisKC7RB
Kendall WrightTEN6WR
Isaiah CrowellCLE6RB
Allen RobinsonJAC6WR
Jason WittenDAL6TE
Anthony DixonBUF5RB
Jonathan StewartCAR5RB
Mohamed SanuCIN4WR
James JonesOAK4WR
Chris JohnsonNYJ4RB
Zac StacySTL4RB
Ryan TannehillMIA4QB
Anquan BoldinSF4WR
DeAngelo WilliamsCAR3RB
Carlos HydeSF3RB
Bryce BrownBUF3RB
Khiry RobinsonNO3RB
Malcom FloydSD2WR
James StarksGB1RB
Martavis BryantPIT1WR
Alex SmithKC1QB
Bobby RaineyTB1RB
Cordarrelle PattersonMIN1WR
Heath MillerPIT1TE
Joe FlaccoBAL1QB
Andy DaltonCIN1QB
Wes WelkerDEN1WR
Robert Griffin IIIWAS1QB
Cecil ShortsJAC1WR
Donte MoncriefIND1WR
Harry DouglasATL1WR
Storm JohnsonJAC1RB

Week 9 - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Tiers

Week 9 byes: Atlanta, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Green Bay, Tennessee

All charts have been updated for [Week 9] as well as [rest-of-season]. See menu on the right hand side.


Introduction

In this model, I take aggregated expert ranking data from Fantasypros.com and pass it into a clustering algorithm called a Gaussian mixture model. The algorithm finds players who are ranked similarly and discovers natural tiers within the data. The results is a series of simple charts that can help you decide your fantasy football line up. Match ups, injuries, strength of offense and defense are all accounted for. For more intuition behind the model, you can read this introduction.


Waiver Wire Adds for Week 9

Here are candidate waiver wire adds (with early flex rankings week 8 from Fantasypros.com next to each name).

Tier 1 (should be owned in 10 team leagues - worth top wavier):

Tier 2 (should be owned in 12 team leagues - generally worth low waiver):
 Brandon LaFell (52)
 Jonathan Stewart (64)
 Allen Robinson (63)
 Bobby Rainey (74)
 Charles Sims (138)
 Andrew Hawkins (68)
 Jonas Gray (89)
 Lorenzo Taliaferro (83)
 Donte Moncrief (87)

Tier 3 (should be owned in 14 team leagues - generally not worth waiver):
 Martavis Bryant (99)
 Davante Adams (bye)
 John Brown (98)
 Theo Riddick (bye)
 Kenny Stills (94)
 Markus Wheaton (104)

Tier 4 (week to week plug-in):
 Tim Wright (128)
 Austin Seferian-Jenkins (129)

Charles Sims could be worth a higher waiver if you're desperate at RB. Andrew Hawkins is a good short term pick up, but keep in mind Josh Gordon will return in week 12. Jonas Gray will be a weekly roller coaster, as Bill Belichick's running back usage is completely unpredictable.  John Brown and Davante Adams are in similar situations, as they're both the WR3 of their teams. Their usage will also be up and down as we saw both able to outscore their WR1's this week (Jordy Nelson and Michael Floyd), but I wouldn't count on that happening. Donte Moncrief looked incredible, but how he shares time with Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne will dictate his fantasy range.

FAQ:

(1) Why are the flex charts inconsistent with the RB and WR charts?
This happens because flex is an after thought for many experts.  Less experts submit rankings to Fantasypros, and they're not graded on them. 

(2) How accurate are these tiers?

(3) When do you update the charts?
Daily.

(4) The New York Times chart says "Aug 6, 2014". Is it updated?
Yes, the date reflects when the very first chart went up.  The charts are updated weekly and often.