data, math, etc.: October 2013

Week 8 - Retrospective

Summary: TE / K still noisy. QB / RB / WR tiers continue to hold. Tier 1 DST disappoint.

Tier 1 median: 33.4

Tier 2 median: 20.4

Tier 3 median: 18.4

Tier 4 median: 15.5

Nailed it!

Tier 1 median: 15.8

Tier 2 median: 12.6

Tier 3 median: 9.4

Tier 4 median: 2.9

Tier 5 median: 8.7

Pretty good, except tier 4. Should have probably rerun the model with injured players removed.

WR
Tier 1 median: 10.1
Tier 2 median: 5.1
Tier 3 median: 8.2
Tier 4 median: 2.1
Tier 5 median: 2.1
Tier 6 median: 6.7

Tier 1, 2 and 3 have been substantially higher than tiers 4+ in the last three weeks. The consistency of the top group, which is typically the top 20-23 wide outs each week, makes a convincing argument for targeting those players in trades.

Tier 1 median: 2.9

Tier 2 median: 5

Tier 3 median: 4.4

Tier 4 median: 2.3

Tier 5 median: 3

There was some rhyme and reason to tier 2, 3 and 4, but the amount of variation in the TE position continues to impress me. The most plausible explanation is that tight ends tend to rely on touchdowns for fantasy production, and predicting which tight ends will catch touchdowns each week is rather hard to predict.

K
Tier 1 median: 9
Tier 2 median: 6.5
Tier 3 median: 7
Tier 4 median: 8
Tier 5 median: 5

Kickers remain noisy, for all three weeks I've been doing this retrospective. This is early indication that kickers may not be worth waiver claims.

DST
Tier 1 median: 5
Tier 2 median: 9
Tier 3 median: 6
Tier 4 median: 5
Tier 5 median: 7

The tier 1 DST's really disappointed this week. Outside of tier 1 and an outlier performance from the Redskins, things didn't look too bad here.

Week 9 - Introduction

Last update: Weds 10/30, 9:23 pm

Week 9 bye's: Arizona, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, New York Giants, San Francisco

I'd like to use the introduction this week reiterate my belief that players within a tier are largely equals. The amount of noise between the ranks within a tier and actual results is high enough that it is basically a dice roll in most situations.

If you don't believe me, take a closer look at the results each week (for example, a week 7 retrospective). You'll find that generally tier 1 > tier 2 > tier 3 > etc, but within each tier, it is noticeably random.

This means if you're faced with a decision between two players in the same tier, go with your first instinct. (Or flip a coin.)

- Week 9 reddit discussion

- Week 8 retrospective

Summary (for first time readers):

My model takes an aggregation of expert rankings from fantasypros, and passes the data into a machine learning clustering algorithm called a gaussian mixture model. Then, I plot each player in the two dimensional space of weighted expert consensus rank (ECR) and raw average rank, and color them by the tier determined by the algorithm. Match-ups are accounted for. The result is beautiful charts and tiers that help you set your line up.

Why the model is powerful: Every week, fantasypros collects data from over 130 experts, each of whom watch and analyze football for a living. Both fantasypros and my model build on the intuition that an aggregation of many expert opinions provides more reliable rankings than what any one expert can predict.

On top of this, the clustering algorithm is able to identify players that are ranked similarly in the data and find natural tiers among the players. It is not always the case that QB3 > QB4 > QB5. Sometimes they are equal, and the algorithm uncovers this.

How to use the charts: Each black dot represents the player's average rank and weighted ECR. The color corresponds to the tier given by the algorithm. I recommend starting players in higher tiers.

Within a tier, most player will appear close together. This means experts are near 50/50 on who is better this week. The tiering algorithm says these players are equals this week. In this case, I recommend flipping a coin, or going with your gut. If experts can't agree, there is no right answer.

As always, you can catch my updates on twitter.

Flex

DST

Week 9 - QB

Terrelle Pryor sneaks into tier 2 this week mostly due to his matchup (vs PHI, 9th for QB), despite not being an effective passer after his 93-yard run last week.

Tier 3 is an interesting QB group. We have red hot Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, and Alex Smith on the rise. We also have Matt Ryan who threw 4 picks last week and is still without Roddy White, and Tom Brady who has struggled all year and faces PIT (29th for QB).

Tier 1: Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers
Tier 2: Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Terrelle Pryor
Tier 3: Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Tom Brady
Tier 4: Nick Foles, Josh McCown, Ben Roethlisberger, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco
Tier 5: Jason Campbell, Case Keenum, Geno Smith, Christian Ponder, Mike Glennon, Josh Freeman, Thaddeus Lewis

Week 9 - RB

Eddie Lacy (vs CHI, 6th for RB) and DeMarco Murray (vs MIN, 3rd for RB) join the top tiers this week. Both have nice match ups and should get high touch counts.

The only name that surprises me in tier 3 is Chris Johnson. He does have a nice match up against STL (5th for RB), but he's still only averaging 3.2 YPC on the year (which includes his garbage time 66 yard run in week 7).

Tier 5 is populated with second string running backs and primary backs with tough match ups this week: Steven Jackson (vs CAR, 22nd for RB), DeAngelo Williams (vs ATL, 17th for RB), Lamar Miller (vs CIN, 27th for RB), Pierre Thomas (vs NYJ, 29th for RB), Darren Sproles (vs NYJ, 29th for RB), Mike James (vs SEA, 26th for RB), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (behind Giovani Bernard), and Bilal Powell (vs NO, 15th for RB).

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte
Tier 2: Ray Rice, Alfred Morris, DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster
Tier 3: Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Fred Jackson, Stevan Ridley, Zac Stacy
Tier 4: Ryan Mathews, Trent Richardson, Danny Woodhead, Giovani Bernard
Tier 5: Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, Lamar Miller, Pierre Thomas, Darren Sproles, Mike James, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bilal Powell
Tier 6: Christopher Ivory, Brandon Bolden, Mike Tolbert, Roy Helu, Donald Brown, Ben Tate, Willis McGahee, C.J. Spiller
Tier 7: Jacquizz Rodgers, Daniel Thomas, Daryl Richardson, Bernard Pierce

Week 9 - WR

With six teams on bye (one of which is Denver), this is a particularly slim week for wide receivers. Tier 1 and 2 are the only reliable options.

Marques Colston usually marks a big drop off to another tier, and this week is no exception. Below Colston, we have Kendall Wright (who shares targets with Nate Washington), Steve Johnson (who has netted under 20 yards in 3 out of 8 games this season), and Danny Amendola (who has not exceeded 60 yards in a game since week 1). Percy Harvin's return muddles Golden Tate value.

Injuries to watch: James Jones, Percy Harvin, Roddy White.

Tier 1: Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, Keenan Allen, Vincent Jackson
Tier 2: Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Harry Douglas, Terrance Williams, Denarius Moore, Ty Hilton, Torrey Smith, Alshon Jeffery, Mike Wallace, Jarrett Boykin, James Jones
Tier 3: Marques Colston, Kendall Wright, Steve Johnson, Danny Amendola, Golden Tate, Brian Hartline, Nate Washington, Marvin Jones, Percy Harvin
Tier 4: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Dwayne Bowe, Emmanuel Sanders, Jeremy Kerley, Greg Jennings, Brandon LaFell, Lance Moore, Vincent Brown, Ted Ginn Jr., Kenny Stills, Rod Streater, DeAndre Hopkins, Roddy White
Tier 5: Aaron Dobson, Stephen Hill, Eddie Royal, Marlon Brown, Drew Davis, David Nelson, Jerome Simpson, Donnie Avery, Dexter McCluster, Riley Cooper
Tier 6: Julian Edelman, Jacoby Jones, Chris Givens, Doug Baldwin, Robert Woods, Jason Avant, Leonard Hankerson, Rishard Matthews

Week 9 - TE

Jordan Reed is officially at the Tier 1 table this week. All of tier 1 and 2 have been able to generate points through both yardage and touchdowns.

Tier 3 (Bennett, Rudolph, Clay, Miller, and Fleener) tight ends have been reliant on catching touchdowns for points, but have a good chance at doing so this week. Tier 4 tight ends also rely on touchdowns, but have a relatively low chance of scoring.

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates, Jordan Reed
Tier 2: Jason Witten, Jordan Cameron, Tony Gonzalez, Greg Olsen
Tier 3: Martellus Bennett, Kyle Rudolph, Charles Clay, Heath Miller, Coby Fleener
Tier 4: Tim Wright, Garrett Graham, Delanie Walker, Tyler Eifert, Scott Chandler, Jared Cook, Jeff Cumberland
Tier 5: Dallas Clark, Jermaine Gresham, Zach Miller, Andrew Quarless, Anthony Fasano
Tier 6: Zach Sudfeld, Brent Celek, Lance Kendricks, Sean McGrath, Mychal Rivera

Week 9 - Flex

Tier 1: Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, Keenan Allen, DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster
Tier 2: Chris Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Darren McFadden, Steve Smith, Rob Gronkowski, Andre Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Harry Douglas, Jimmy Graham, Denarius Moore, Terrance Williams, Stevan Ridley, Antonio Gates, Fred Jackson, Zac Stacy
Tier 3: Ty Hilton, Ryan Mathews, Alshon Jeffery, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, Trent Richardson, Danny Woodhead, Jarrett Boykin, James Jones
Tier 4: Jordan Reed, Giovani Bernard, Kendall Wright, Jason Witten, Marques Colston, Tony Gonzalez, Steven Jackson, Steve Johnson
Tier 5: Jordan Cameron, Danny Amendola, Brian Hartline, Greg Olsen, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Lamar Miller, Nate Washington, Golden Tate, Darren Sproles
Tier 6: Marvin Jones, Mike James, Darrius Heyward-Bey, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Dwayne Bowe, Martellus Bennett, Brandon LaFell, Bilal Powell
Tier 7: Jeremy Kerley, Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore, Greg Jennings, Kyle Rudolph, Christopher Ivory

Week 9 - K

Tier 1: Stephen Gostkowski, Dan Bailey, Garrett Hartley, Mason Crosby, Nick Novak, Steven Hauschka, Adam Vinatieri
Tier 2: Kai Forbath, Alex Henery, Matt Bryant, Ryan Succop, Justin Tucker
Tier 3: Graham Gano, Rob Bironas, Blair Walsh, Sebastian Janikowski, Robbie Gould, Mike Nugent, Randy Bullock, Nick Folk, Greg Zuerlein
Tier 4: Shaun Suisham, Caleb Sturgis, Billy Cundiff, Dan Carpenter, Rian Lindell

Week 9 - DST

Tier 1: Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals
Tier 2: New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Green Bay Packers
Tier 3: Cleveland Browns, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, St. Louis Rams
Tier 4: Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buffalo Bills, San Diego Chargers, Chicago Bears, Washington Redskins
Tier 5: Minnesota Vikings

Week 9 - PPR

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice, DeMarco Murray
Tier 2: Danny Woodhead, Arian Foster, Darren McFadden, Fred Jackson, Le'Veon Bell, Chris Johnson, Giovani Bernard, Darren Sproles, Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy
Tier 3: Steven Jackson, Pierre Thomas, Stevan Ridley, Trent Richardson, Ryan Mathews
Tier 4: Mike James, Lamar Miller, DeAngelo Williams, Bilal Powell, Brandon Bolden, Mike Tolbert, C.J. Spiller
Tier 5: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Roy Helu, Donald Brown, Christopher Ivory, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ben Tate, Chris Ogbonnaya, Willis McGahee, Brian Leonard, Daryl Richardson

Tier 1: Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Brandon Marshall, Andre Johnson, Josh Gordon, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Harry Douglas, Keenan Allen

Tier 2: Steve Smith

Tier 3: Denarius Moore, Terrance Williams, Kendall Wright, Mike Wallace, Ty Hilton, Danny Amendola, Jarrett Boykin, Torrey Smith, Steve Johnson, Alshon Jeffery, Marques Colston, Brian Hartline, James Jones, Percy Harvin

Tier 4: Jeremy Kerley, Golden Tate, Nate Washington, Greg Jennings, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Marvin Jones, Dwayne Bowe, Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon LaFell, Roddy White

Tier 5: Vincent Brown, Rod Streater, Lance Moore, DeAndre Hopkins

Tier 6: Aaron Dobson, David Nelson, Ted Ginn Jr., Kenny Stills, Stephen Hill, Jerome Simpson, Drew Davis, Dexter McCluster, Eddie Royal, Marlon Brown, Jason Avant

Tier 7: Julian Edelman, Donnie Avery, Riley Cooper, Leonard Hankerson, Rishard Matthews, Robert Woods, Jacoby Jones, Cole Beasley

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed, Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, Jordan Cameron, Jason Witten, Greg Olsen

Tier 2: Kyle Rudolph, Martellus Bennett, Heath Miller, Charles Clay, Coby Fleener, Tim Wright, Garrett Graham

Tier 3: Scott Chandler, Jermaine Gresham, Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert, Delanie Walker, Jeff Cumberland, Dallas Clark

Tier 4: Brent Celek, Zach Miller, Andrew Quarless, Anthony Fasano, Zach Ertz

Tier 5: Zach Sudfeld, Sean McGrath, Ladarius Green

Flex:

Tier 1: Dez Bryant, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Jordy Nelson, LeSean McCoy, A.J. Green, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Brandon Marshall

Tier 2: Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Josh Gordon, Marshawn Lynch, DeSean Jackson, Harry Douglas, Ray Rice, Keenan Allen

Tier 3: NA,

Tier 4: Rob Gronkowski, Steve Smith, Jordan Reed, Antonio Gates, Denarius Moore, DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster

Tier 5: Terrance Williams, Mike Wallace, Jimmy Graham, Kendall Wright, Danny Woodhead, Tony Gonzalez, Ty Hilton, Jarrett Boykin, Darren McFadden, Jason Witten, Danny Amendola

Tier 6: Torrey Smith, Jordan Cameron, Steve Johnson, Fred Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, Le'Veon Bell, Chris Johnson, James Jones

Tier 7: Giovani Bernard, Marques Colston, Brian Hartline, Darren Sproles, Alfred Morris, Greg Olsen, Zac Stacy

Tier 8: Jeremy Kerley, Steven Jackson, Golden Tate

Tier 9: Nate Washington, Greg Jennings, Pierre Thomas, Marvin Jones, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Emmanuel Sanders, Stevan Ridley, Dwayne Bowe

Tier 10: Kyle Rudolph, Martellus Bennett, Ryan Mathews, Trent Richardson, Brandon LaFell, Heath Miller, Charles Clay, Vincent Brown

Tier 11: Lance Moore, Mike James, DeAndre Hopkins, Lamar Miller, DeAngelo Williams, Rod Streater, Coby Fleener, Aaron Dobson, Bilal Powell

Week 9 - Half PPR

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch
Tier 2: Ray Rice, DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster
Tier 3: Darren McFadden, Chris Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Alfred Morris, Fred Jackson, Danny Woodhead, Zac Stacy, Giovani Bernard
Tier 4: Stevan Ridley, Trent Richardson, Darren Sproles, Ryan Mathews, Steven Jackson, Pierre Thomas
Tier 5: Lamar Miller, DeAngelo Williams, Mike James
Tier 6: Bilal Powell, Brandon Bolden, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mike Tolbert, C.J. Spiller
Tier 7: Christopher Ivory, Roy Helu, Donald Brown, Ben Tate, Jacquizz Rodgers, Willis McGahee
Tier 8: Chris Ogbonnaya, Brian Leonard, Daryl Richardson

WR

Tier 1: Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Josh Gordon, Vincent Jackson, Andre Johnson, Harry Douglas, Keenan Allen

Tier 2: Steve Smith

Tier 3: Terrance Williams, Denarius Moore, Ty Hilton, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, Jarrett Boykin, Kendall Wright, Alshon Jeffery, Danny Amendola, Marques Colston, Steve Johnson, Brian Hartline, James Jones, Percy Harvin

Tier 4: NA,

Tier 5: Nate Washington, Golden Tate, Jeremy Kerley, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Marvin Jones, Dwayne Bowe, Greg Jennings, Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Lance Moore, Vincent Brown, Roddy White

Tier 6: Rod Streater, Ted Ginn Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills, Aaron Dobson, David Nelson, Stephen Hill, Eddie Royal, Jerome Simpson, Drew Davis, Marlon Brown

Tier 7: NA,

Tier 8: Julian Edelman, Dexter McCluster, Donnie Avery, Riley Cooper, Jason Avant, Jacoby Jones, Leonard Hankerson, Robert Woods, Rishard Matthews, Doug Baldwin

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Jordan Reed, Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Jordan Cameron, Greg Olsen

Tier 3: Martellus Bennett, Kyle Rudolph, Charles Clay, Heath Miller, Coby Fleener

Tier 4: Tim Wright, Garrett Graham, Delanie Walker, Scott Chandler, Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert, Jeff Cumberland

Tier 5: Jermaine Gresham, Zach Miller, Dallas Clark, Andrew Quarless, Anthony Fasano

Tier 6: Zach Sudfeld, Brent Celek, Sean McGrath, Ladarius Green, Zach Ertz

Flex

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Dez Bryant, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson, Matt Forte, A.J. Green
Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Ray Rice
Tier 3: DeSean Jackson, Josh Gordon, Vincent Jackson, Andre Johnson, Keenan Allen, Harry Douglas, DeMarco Murray, Rob Gronkowski, Steve Smith, Arian Foster
Tier 4: Denarius Moore, Terrance Williams, Antonio Gates, Darren McFadden, Jimmy Graham, Ty Hilton, Mike Wallace, Alfred Morris, Jordan Reed, Chris Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, Torrey Smith, Fred Jackson, Jarrett Boykin, Danny Woodhead
Tier 5: Alshon Jeffery, Jason Witten, Kendall Wright, Tony Gonzalez, Danny Amendola, Steve Johnson, Zac Stacy, Giovani Bernard, Marques Colston, Jordan Cameron, James Jones
Tier 6: Stevan Ridley, Trent Richardson, Brian Hartline, Steven Jackson, Ryan Mathews, Greg Olsen, Darren Sproles
Tier 7: Golden Tate, Pierre Thomas, Nate Washington, Jeremy Kerley, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Marvin Jones, Greg Jennings, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 8: Brandon LaFell, Emmanuel Sanders, Martellus Bennett, Lamar Miller, Kyle Rudolph, DeAngelo Williams, Mike James, Charles Clay, Lance Moore, Vincent Brown

Tier 9: Heath Miller, Bilal Powell, Kenny Stills, Brandon Bolden, Rod Streater, DeAndre Hopkins

Week 8 - Introduction

Last update: Weds 10/23, 10:29 pm

Week 8 bye's: Baltimore, Chicago, Houston, Indianapolis, San Diego, Tennessee

What a crazy week 7. Matt Ryan showed he can contend even without Julio or Roddy. The Redskins and Bears scored 96 points collectively. The Eagles only put up 3 points. The Jets beat out Tom Brady with an overtime field goal. The Lions lost even with Megatron making absurd plays. Andrew Luck beat out Peyton Manning in Indy. Chris Johnson scored 17 fantasy points.

- Check Week 7 and Week 6 retrospectives to see how my tier predictions did.
- In these last two weeks, TE and K are the noisiest positions.
- This week's reddit discussion.

Summary (for first time readers):

DST

Week 8 - QB

The elite three quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers -- are joined in tier 1 this week by Matthew Stafford (vs DAL, 3rd for QB’s) and Robert Griffin III (vs DEN, 1st for QB’s). A healthy Megatron elevates Stafford, and rookie tight end Jordan Reed should help RG3.

The tier 2 quarterbacks this week are the ones we are familiar with in this tier -- Romo, Newton, Vick, Wilson, Kaepernick, Ryan, and Brady.

To explain the drop off to tier 3: Eli Manning has a good matchup (vs PHI, 6th for QB’s), but he looked terrible last week with only 200 yards, one touchdown, and three near-interceptions. Terrelle Pryor has been fairly consistent, but faces PIT (29th for QB’s). Andy Dalton is coming off two back to back great weeks with 300+ yards, but faces NYJ (18th for QB’s).

Tier 1: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III
Tier 2: Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Michael Vick, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Matt Ryan, Tom Brady
Tier 3: Eli Manning, Terrelle Pryor, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer, Ryan Tannehill, Geno Smith
Tier 4: Mike Glennon, Thaddeus Lewis, Josh Freeman, Chad Henne, Christian Ponder, Nick Foles, Jason Campbell, Kellen Clemens, Brandon Weeden

Week 8 - RB

Four new running backs make their way into tier 1 this week. Frank Gore (vs JAX, 3rd for RB’s) coming off a 22-point game, Knowshon Moreno (vs WAS, 2nd for RB’s) with a touchdown for four weeks running, Reggie Bush (vs DAL, 15th for RB’s) who has been deadly when Calvin Johnson is play, and Eddie Lacy (vs MIN, 1st for RB’s).

With six teams on bye this week, RB’s start looking dicey in tier 3. I expect high variance in this group. DeAngelo Williams still doesn’t get goal-line carries. Zac Stacy, while looking strong the last three weeks, faces SEA (28th for RB’s). Mike James will have his first NFL start against a hot CAR defense (19th for RB’s). Steven Jackson returns for the first time since week 2 (vs ARI, 24th for RB). Lamar Miller is tragically in a time share in Miami with Daniel Thomas.

Tier 1: Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, Reggie Bush, Eddie Lacy
Tier 2: Alfred Morris, Le'Veon Bell, Fred Jackson, Stevan Ridley, Darren McFadden, Darren Sproles
Tier 3: Giovani Bernard, DeAngelo Williams, Zac Stacy, Joseph Randle, Maurice Jones-Drew, Mike James, Pierre Thomas, Steven Jackson, Lamar Miller
Tier 4: Christopher Ivory, C.J. Spiller, Andre Ellington, Rashard Mendenhall, Jacquizz Rodgers, Roy Helu, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Brandon Jacobs, DeMarco Murray
Tier 5: Joique Bell, Willis McGahee, Bilal Powell, Brandon Bolden, Peyton Hillis, Daniel Thomas, Mike Tolbert, Kendall Hunter

Week 8 - WR

Three Bronco’s receivers -- Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, and Eric Decker -- make it to tier 1 this week. Anyone in the top 3 tiers is capable of producing WR1 numbers this week. Rueben Randle, Harry Douglass, and Michael Floyd are all on a fast rise.

Wide receiver’s get shaky in tier 4 this week. Denarius Moore, Brian Hartline, Steve Johnson, Greg Jennings, and Jeremy Kerley are all primary targets on their respective teams, but are relying on non-elite quarterbacks. Julian Edelman’s value has dropped with the return of Rob Gronkowski. Similarly, Percy Harvin’s possible return knocks down Golden Tate’s value.

Four WR injuries will have to be monitored into the weekend: Roddy White, James Jones, Danny Amendola, and Percy Harvin.

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker
Tier 2: Larry Fitzgerald, Justin Blackmon, Anquan Boldin, Josh Gordon, Marques Colston, Jarrett Boykin, Hakeem Nicks, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace
Tier 3: Cecil Shorts, Rueben Randle, Harry Douglas, Michael Floyd
Tier 4: Terrance Williams, Denarius Moore, Brian Hartline, Steve Johnson, Julian Edelman, Greg Jennings, Jeremy Kerley, Golden Tate, Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, James Jones, Danny Amendola
Tier 5: Emmanuel Sanders, Kris Durham, Brandon LaFell, Kenbrell Thompkins, Mike Williams, Stephen Hill, Robert Woods, Brandon Gibson, Jerome Simpson, Aaron Dobson, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin
Tier 6: Marvin Jones, Riley Cooper, Donnie Avery, Leonard Hankerson, Jason Avant, Ted Ginn Jr., Rod Streater, Kenny Stills, Chris Givens

Week 8 - TE

Rob Gronkowski leads tier 1 after his monster first game back (17 targets, 114 yards). Jason Witten drops to tier 2 with Terrence Williams on the rise in Dallas. Jordan Reed comes off a monster week (134 yards, 1 td) and climbs all the way up to tier 2. Tier 3 is composed of a group that is more touchdown reliant for points -- Olsen, Clay, Rudolph, and Cumberland.

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, Julius Thomas, Tony Gonzalez
Tier 2: Jason Witten, Jordan Reed, Jordan Cameron, Heath Miller
Tier 3: Greg Olsen, Charles Clay, Kyle Rudolph, Jeff Cumberland
Tier 4: Joseph Fauria, Tyler Eifert, Jared Cook, Brandon Pettigrew, Andrew Quarless
Tier 5: Tim Wright, Jermaine Gresham, Robert Housler, Scott Chandler, Anthony Fasano, Brent Celek, Zach Miller, Brandon Myers

Week 8 - Flex

Note: only ~~FLEX30 - FLEX90~~ FLEX15 - FLEX75 are shown. Flex rankings may vary from RB/WR/TE positions because not all experts report the flex position.

Tier 1: Wes Welker, DeSean Jackson, Le'Veon Bell, Alfred Morris, Antonio Brown, Vincent Jackson, Rob Gronkowski, Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker, Stevan Ridley, Fred Jackson, Darren McFadden, Jimmy Graham
Tier 2: Larry Fitzgerald, Justin Blackmon
Tier 3: Darren Sproles, Vernon Davis, Jarrett Boykin, Hakeem Nicks, Anquan Boldin, Josh Gordon, Julius Thomas, Tony Gonzalez, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Giovani Bernard, Zac Stacy, DeAngelo Williams, Steven Jackson
Tier 4: Rueben Randle, Cecil Shorts, Michael Floyd, Harry Douglas
Tier 5: Joseph Randle, Mike James, Pierre Thomas, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jason Witten, Denarius Moore, Terrance Williams, Roddy White
Tier 6: Brian Hartline, Lamar Miller, Jordan Reed, Christopher Ivory, Jordan Cameron, Steve Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall, C.J. Spiller, Golden Tate, Andre Ellington, Julian Edelman, Jeremy Kerley, Greg Jennings, Heath Miller
Tier 7: Greg Olsen, Dwayne Bowe, Emmanuel Sanders, Roy Helu, Kris Durham

Week 8 - K

Tier 1: Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Prater
Tier 2: Alex Henery, Garrett Hartley, Steven Hauschka, Matt Bryant, Dan Bailey, Mason Crosby, Phil Dawson, Ryan Succop
Tier 3: Blair Walsh, Kai Forbath, David Akers, Mike Nugent, Shaun Suisham, Sebastian Janikowski, Nick Folk
Tier 4: Jay Feely, Graham Gano, Dan Carpenter, Caleb Sturgis, Greg Zuerlein, Josh Brown
Tier 5: Josh Scobee, Billy Cundiff, Rian Lindell

Week 8 - DST

Tier 1: Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers
Tier 2: Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers
Tier 3: Philadelphia Eagles, Oakland Raiders, Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets
Tier 4: Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams, Miami Dolphins
Tier 5: Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings, Washington Redskins, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 8 - PPR

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno, Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy

Tier 2: Darren Sproles, Fred Jackson, Le'Veon Bell, Giovani Bernard, Darren McFadden

Tier 3: Pierre Thomas, Alfred Morris, Zac Stacy, Stevan Ridley, Andre Ellington, Joseph Randle, DeAngelo Williams, Mike James, Steven Jackson

Tier 4: Maurice Jones-Drew, C.J. Spiller, Roy Helu, Jacquizz Rodgers, Lamar Miller, Joique Bell, Christopher Ivory, Rashard Mendenhall, Brandon Bolden, Brandon Jacobs, DeMarco Murray

Tier 5: Bilal Powell, Peyton Hillis, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Willis McGahee, Chris Ogbonnaya, Mike Tolbert, Daniel Thomas

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Victor Cruz, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Justin Blackmon, Eric Decker, Larry Fitzgerald

Tier 2: NA,

Tier 3: Anquan Boldin, Jarrett Boykin, Hakeem Nicks, Josh Gordon, Cecil Shorts, Steve Smith, Marques Colston, Mike Wallace, Harry Douglas

Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Brian Hartline, Julian Edelman, Rueben Randle, Steve Johnson, Terrance Williams, Denarius Moore, Jeremy Kerley, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Golden Tate, Dwayne Bowe, James Jones, Danny Amendola

Tier 5: Emmanuel Sanders, Brandon Gibson, Kris Durham, Mike Williams, Brandon LaFell, Percy Harvin

Tier 6: Robert Woods, Stephen Hill, Jerome Simpson, Kenbrell Thompkins, Aaron Dobson

Tier 7: Leonard Hankerson, Marvin Jones, Sidney Rice, Jason Avant, Cole Beasley, Riley Cooper, Donnie Avery, Kenny Stills, Rod Streater, Jerricho Cotchery, Mike Brown, Miles Austin

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez, Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten

Tier 2: Jordan Reed, Jordan Cameron, Heath Miller, Greg Olsen, Charles Clay, Kyle Rudolph

Tier 3: Jeff Cumberland, Brandon Pettigrew, Jared Cook, Tyler Eifert, Robert Housler, Joseph Fauria, Jermaine Gresham, Scott Chandler, Anthony Fasano, Andrew Quarless

Tier 4: Tim Wright, Zach Miller, Brandon Myers, Brent Celek, Lance Kendricks, Zach Ertz

Tier 5: Benjamin Watson, Brandon Bostick

Flex

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy
Tier 2: Adrian Peterson, A.J. Green, Jordy Nelson, Antonio Brown, Knowshon Moreno, Reggie Bush, Demaryius Thomas, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Frank Gore, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon
Tier 3: DeSean Jackson, Justin Blackmon, Eric Decker, Eddie Lacy, Jimmy Graham
Tier 4: Larry Fitzgerald, Tony Gonzalez, Darren Sproles, Julius Thomas
Tier 5: Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin, Jarrett Boykin, Fred Jackson, Hakeem Nicks, Josh Gordon, Cecil Shorts, Steve Smith, Le'Veon Bell, Mike Wallace, Giovani Bernard, Harry Douglas, Marques Colston
Tier 6: Jason Witten
Tier 7: Darren McFadden, Michael Floyd, Jordan Reed, Brian Hartline, Rueben Randle, Julian Edelman, Jordan Cameron, Pierre Thomas, Steve Johnson, Steven Jackson, Roddy White
Tier 8: Jeremy Kerley, Denarius Moore, Terrance Williams, Greg Jennings, Heath Miller, Alfred Morris
Tier 9: Zac Stacy, Stevan Ridley, Golden Tate, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Randle, Andre Ellington, Dwayne Bowe, Greg Olsen, Emmanuel Sanders, Mike James, Brandon Gibson
Tier 10: NA,
Tier 11: Kyle Rudolph, Charles Clay, Maurice Jones-Drew, Mike Williams, Kris Durham, Roy Helu, C.J. Spiller, Brandon LaFell, Kenbrell Thompkins, Jacquizz Rodgers, Jerome Simpson

Week 8 - Half PPR

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson
Tier 2: Knowshon Moreno, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, Eddie Lacy
Tier 3: Darren Sproles, Le'Veon Bell, Fred Jackson, Darren McFadden, Giovani Bernard
Tier 4: Alfred Morris, Stevan Ridley, Pierre Thomas, Zac Stacy, DeAngelo Williams, Steven Jackson
Tier 5: Joseph Randle, Mike James, Andre Ellington, Maurice Jones-Drew, C.J. Spiller, Lamar Miller
Tier 6: Christopher Ivory, Roy Helu, Rashard Mendenhall, Jacquizz Rodgers, Joique Bell, Brandon Jacobs, DeMarco Murray
Tier 7: Brandon Bolden, Bilal Powell, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mike Tolbert
Tier 8: Peyton Hillis, Willis McGahee, Daniel Thomas, Chris Ogbonnaya

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Victor Cruz, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Antonio Brown
Tier 2: Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Eric Decker, Justin Blackmon, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 3: Anquan Boldin, Jarrett Boykin, Hakeem Nicks, Josh Gordon, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, Steve Smith, Cecil Shorts, Harry Douglas
Tier 4: Michael Floyd, Rueben Randle, Julian Edelman, Brian Hartline, Denarius Moore, Roddy White
Tier 5: Terrance Williams, Steve Johnson, Jeremy Kerley, Greg Jennings, Golden Tate, James Jones, Danny Amendola
Tier 6: Dwayne Bowe, Emmanuel Sanders, Kris Durham, Brandon Gibson, Brandon LaFell, Mike Williams, Stephen Hill, Robert Woods, Kenbrell Thompkins, Jerome Simpson, Aaron Dobson, Percy Harvin
Tier 7: Marvin Jones, Sidney Rice, Leonard Hankerson, Jason Avant
Tier 8: Donnie Avery, Riley Cooper, Cole Beasley, Chris Givens, Jerricho Cotchery, Kenny Stills, Rod Streater, David Nelson

Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis, Julius Thomas, Jason Witten

Tier 2: Jordan Reed, Jordan Cameron, Heath Miller, Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph, Charles Clay

Tier 4: Jeff Cumberland, Brandon Pettigrew, Jared Cook, Joseph Fauria, Tyler Eifert, Robert Housler, Jermaine Gresham, Scott Chandler, Anthony Fasano, Andrew Quarless

Tier 5: Brent Celek, Tim Wright, Zach Miller, Brandon Myers, Zach Ertz

Tier 6: Benjamin Watson, Lance Kendricks, Brandon Bostick

Flex

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Calvin Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Dez Bryant, Adrian Peterson, Knowshon Moreno, Reggie Bush, Frank Gore

Tier 2: Jordy Nelson, A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Antonio Brown, Eddie Lacy, DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, Rob Gronkowski, Pierre Garcon

Tier 3: Eric Decker, Justin Blackmon, Larry Fitzgerald, Jimmy Graham

Tier 4: Le'Veon Bell, Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, Vernon Davis, Tony Gonzalez, Anquan Boldin, Jarrett Boykin, Julius Thomas, Darren McFadden, Hakeem Nicks, Josh Gordon, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston

Tier 5: Cecil Shorts, Alfred Morris, Giovani Bernard, Harry Douglas, Stevan Ridley, Steven Jackson

Tier 6: Michael Floyd, Jason Witten, Rueben Randle, Zac Stacy, Pierre Thomas, Brian Hartline, Julian Edelman, DeAngelo Williams, Roddy White

Tier 7: Jordan Reed, Denarius Moore, Terrance Williams, Jordan Cameron, Joseph Randle, Steve Johnson, Jeremy Kerley, Mike James, Greg Jennings, Heath Miller

Tier 8: Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Ellington, Golden Tate, Lamar Miller, Dwayne Bowe, C.J. Spiller, Emmanuel Sanders, Greg Olsen

Tier 9: Christopher Ivory, Kyle Rudolph, Rashard Mendenhall, Brandon Gibson, Kris Durham, Roy Helu, Charles Clay, Mike Williams, Brandon LaFell

Week 7 - Retrospective

QB
Tier 1 median: 20.1
Tier 2 median: 29.9
Tier 3 median: 22.8
Tier 4 median: 20.8
Tier 5 median: 16.6
Tier 6 median: 5.7

QB tier predictions were mostly accurate last week. Tier 2 was the noisiest, due to Culter and Foles both leaving early due to injuries. Injuries are impossible to predict, so if you add their substitutes points to their totals, they would have 18.9 and 13.0, which are tier 2 worthy numbers. Aside from that, outstanding weeks from Luck, Stafford, and RG3 brought the median to 29.9.

Tier 1 median: 13.2

Tier 2 median: 9.4

Tier 3 median: 5.9

Tier 4 median: 9.9

Tier 5 median: 12

Tier 6 median: 2.4

Tier 7 median: 4

In tier 4, FJax, Mathews, Woodhead, Ridley and Bell all had good fantasy days (9.9 points or higher) bringing up tier 4.

In tier 5, without Chris Johnson's 66 yard touchdown play, he would have scored 4.4 points. But that's fantasy football.

WR
Tier 1 median: 7.5
Tier 2 median: 7.7
Tier 3 median: 7.8
Tier 4 median: 4.4
Tier 5 median: 4.1
Tier 6 median: 4.8
Tier 7 median: 6.6
Tier 8 median: 2.4

Similar to last week, tiers 1, 2 and 3 have a large separation from tiers 4, 5 and 6. I only have two weeks of retrospective, but I have a feeling this won't be the only two weeks we'll see this trend.

Wright (9.8), Boykin (16.3), and Hopkins (13.6) really inflated tier 7 this week. Had I updated the charts after knowing the James Jones was out, Boykin probably would have saw a rise.

TE
Tier 1 median: 5.5
Tier 2 median: 7.7
Tier 3 median: 6.7
Tier 4 median: 2.5
Tier 5 median: 5.3

Tight end tiers come in as one of the nosier positions again. I suspect that a possible explanation is that a relatively high percentage of TE points come from touchdowns, not yards.

Tier 1 median: 7

Tier 2 median: 7

Tier 3 median: 6

Tier 4 median: 11

Kicker tiers looked meaningless last week (though this is expected to be the noisiest position).

Note: Hauschka has a name mismatch the two data sources I'm pulling, so he appears as 0. I'll fix next week.

DST

Tier 1 median: 10

Tier 2 median: 7

Tier 3 median: 5

Tier 4 median: 2

Tier 5 median: 4

DST predictions looked good last week.