Week 5 - Half PPR

Week 5 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | Ki | DST | PPR | 0.5PPR

RB

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush
Tier 2: DeMarco Murray, Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Darren Sproles, Frank Gore
Tier 3: Chris Johnson, Bilal Powell, Eddie Lacy, Trent Richardson, Maurice Jones-Drew
Tier 4: C.J. Spiller, Joique Bell, Danny Woodhead, DeAngelo Williams, Giovani Bernard
Tier 5: Lamar Miller, Knowshon Moreno, Daryl Richardson, Fred Jackson
Tier 6: Ryan Mathews, David Wilson, Darren McFadden
Tier 7: Pierre Thomas, Stevan Ridley, Jacquizz Rodgers, Jason Snelling, Willis McGahee, Rashard Mendenhall
Tier 8: Rashad Jennings, Ben Tate, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Andre Ellington, Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Bolden, Chris Ogbonnaya

WR

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Victor Cruz, Randall Cobb, Wes Welker
Tier 2: Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker, Josh Gordon, Torrey Smith
Tier 3: Marques Colston, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Danny Amendola, Hakeem Nicks, Reggie Wayne, Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline
Tier 4: Roddy White, James Jones, Steve Johnson, Cecil Shorts, Justin Blackmon, Julian Edelman, DeAndre Hopkins, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 5: Eddie Royal, Alshon Jeffery, Tavon Austin, Miles Austin
Tier 6: Kenbrell Thompkins, Nate Washington, Ty Hilton, Vincent Brown, Denarius Moore, Chris Givens, Michael Floyd, Santonio Holmes, Stephen Hill, Golden Tate, Kendall Wright
Tier 7: Marlon Brown, Jeremy Kerley, Rueben Randle, Andre Roberts, Robert Woods, Ryan Broyles, Brandon LaFell, Donnie Avery, Sidney Rice, Rod Streater, Mohamed Sanu, Lance Moore
Tier 8: Terrance Williams

TE

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten, Jordan Cameron, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas, Tony Gonzalez
Tier 2: Greg Olsen, Vernon Davis
Tier 3: Jermichael Finley, Martellus Bennett, Jared Cook, Brandon Myers, Owen Daniels, Charles Clay
Tier 4: Coby Fleener, Jermaine Gresham
Tier 5: Marcedes Lewis, Brandon Pettigrew, Dallas Clark, Tyler Eifert, Scott Chandler, Zach Miller
Tier 6: Anthony Fasano, Robert Housler, Kellen Winslow, Garrett Graham, Delanie Walker, Brent Celek, Mychal Rivera

Flex

Tier 1: LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Calvin Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Reggie Bush, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Arian Foster
Tier 2: A.J. Green, Ray Rice, Jimmy Graham, Brandon Marshall, Frank Gore, DeMarco Murray, Julio Jones, Victor Cruz
Tier 3: Andre Johnson, Chris Johnson, Wes Welker, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson
Tier 4: Eddie Lacy, Darren Sproles, Trent Richardson, Larry Fitzgerald, Bilal Powell, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, Josh Gordon, DeAngelo Williams, Maurice Jones-Drew
Tier 5: Jordan Cameron, Marques Colston, Lamar Miller, Steve Smith, David Wilson, C.J. Spiller
Tier 6: Anquan Boldin, Giovani Bernard, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews, Stevan Ridley, James Jones, Reggie Wayne, Daryl Richardson, Roddy White, Brian Hartline, Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 7: Joique Bell, Fred Jackson, Cecil Shorts, Julius Thomas, Jason Witten, Steve Johnson, Danny Woodhead, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Blackmon, Alshon Jeffery, Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Gates
Tier 8: Julian Edelman, Tony Gonzalez, Willis McGahee, Eddie Royal, Jacquizz Rodgers, Tavon Austin, Ty Hilton, Rashard Mendenhall
Tier 9: Greg Olsen, Pierre Thomas, Chris Givens, Vincent Brown, Michael Floyd, Kenbrell Thompkins, Nate Washington

Week 5 - PPR

Week 5 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | Ki | DST | PPR | 0.5PPR

PPR RB

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy
Tier 2: Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray, Darren Sproles, Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice
Tier 3: Frank Gore, Danny Woodhead, Bilal Powell
Tier 4: Joique Bell, Chris Johnson, Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy, Maurice Jones-Drew, C.J. Spiller
Tier 5: Giovani Bernard, Fred Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Daryl Richardson, Lamar Miller, DeAngelo Williams
Tier 6: Darren McFadden
Tier 7: Pierre Thomas, Jason Snelling, Ryan Mathews, Jacquizz Rodgers, David Wilson
Tier 8: Rashad Jennings, Willis McGahee, Stevan Ridley, Rashard Mendenhall, Brandon Bolden, Ben Tate, Andre Ellington, Chris Ogbonnaya
Tier 9: Ahmad Bradshaw, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

PPR WR

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Randall Cobb, A.J. Green, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald

Tier 2: Jordy Nelson, DeSean Jackson, Eric Decker, Josh Gordon, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Danny Amendola

Tier 3: Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Brian Hartline, Julian Edelman, Mike Wallace, Cecil Shorts, Roddy White, James Jones, Steve Johnson, Justin Blackmon, DeAndre Hopkins, Dwayne Bowe, Miles Austin

Tier 4: Tavon Austin, Eddie Royal, Kenbrell Thompkins, Alshon Jeffery, Nate Washington, Kendall Wright, Ty Hilton, Denarius Moore, Michael Floyd, Vincent Brown, Chris Givens, Jeremy Kerley, Santonio Holmes

Tier 5: Stephen Hill, Robert Woods, Golden Tate, Andre Roberts, Marlon Brown, Ryan Broyles, Donnie Avery, Rueben Randle, Brandon LaFell, Terrance Williams, Mohamed Sanu, Austin Pettis

Tier 6: Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce

PPR TE

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten

Tier 2: Jordan Cameron, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Julius Thomas, Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen

Tier 3: Martellus Bennett, Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, Brandon Myers, Jared Cook, Charles Clay, Owen Daniels

Tier 4: Coby Fleener, Jermaine Gresham

Tier 5: Dallas Clark, Kellen Winslow, Brandon Pettigrew, Robert Housler, Brent Celek, Marcedes Lewis, Garrett Graham, Scott Chandler, Zach Miller, Tyler Eifert, Delanie Walker

Tier 6: Anthony Fasano, Mychal Rivera

PPR Flex

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy, Jimmy Graham, Andre Johnson, Julio Jones
Tier 2: Reggie Bush, Brandon Marshall, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, Darren Sproles, Randall Cobb, Wes Welker, A.J. Green, Victor Cruz, Arian Foster
Tier 3: Ray Rice, Larry Fitzgerald, Jordy Nelson
Tier 4: DeSean Jackson, Josh Gordon, Frank Gore, Eric Decker, Danny Amendola
Tier 5: Danny Woodhead, Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith, Bilal Powell, Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston
Tier 6: Jason Witten, Trent Richardson, Steve Smith, Joique Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jordan Cameron, Chris Johnson
Tier 7: Hakeem Nicks, Julian Edelman, Brian Hartline, Giovani Bernard, Cecil Shorts, Maurice Jones-Drew, Antonio Gates, James Jones, Fred Jackson, Mike Wallace, Justin Blackmon, C.J. Spiller, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 8: Tony Gonzalez, Julius Thomas, Steve Johnson
Tier 9: Lamar Miller, Roddy White, Knowshon Moreno, Daryl Richardson, Dwayne Bowe, DeAndre Hopkins, DeAngelo Williams, Greg Olsen
Tier 10: Tavon Austin, Pierre Thomas, Alshon Jeffery, Kenbrell Thompkins, Eddie Royal
Tier 11: Jason Snelling, Ryan Mathews, Denarius Moore, Kendall Wright, Nate Washington, David Wilson, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ty Hilton, Martellus Bennett, Michael Floyd, Vernon Davis

Week 5 - DST

Week 5 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | Ki | DST | PPR | 0.5PPR

The Chiefs defense looks like they're not messing around.  Panthers, Rams, and Falcons have great match ups this week.

Tier 1: St. Louis Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, Seattle Seahawks, Carolina Panthers, San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons
Tier 2: Cleveland Browns, New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills
Tier 3: Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, Tennessee Titans, Arizona Cardinals, New Orleans Saints
Tier 4: Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, Green Bay Packers, New York Giants
Tier 5: Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 5 - Ki

Week 5 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | Ki | DST | PPR | 0.5PPR

Looks like experts are jumping on board with the hot San Diego offense, as apparent by Nick Novak's jump into the high kicker tiers.

Caleb Sturgis was a topic of some conversation last week.  He was low last week and he remains relatively low, after the Dolphins struggled to put up points against the Saints.  Skeptics of the Dolphins offense have good reason.

Tier 1: Matt Bryant, Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Prater, Greg Zuerlein, Alex Henery, Justin Tucker, Nick Novak
Tier 2: Josh Brown, Phil Dawson, Robbie Gould, Mason Crosby, Randy Bullock, Garrett Hartley, Steven Hauschka, Dan Bailey, David Akers, Caleb Sturgis
Tier 3: Ryan Succop, Sebastian Janikowski
Tier 4: Dan Carpenter, Nick Folk, Dustin Hopkins, Billy Cundiff, Adam Vinatieri, Josh Scobee, Mike Nugent, Jay Feely, Rob Bironas

Week 5 - Flex

Week 5 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | Ki | DST | PPR | 0.5PPR

A couple injuries to keep tabs on this week: CJ Spiller, Danny Amendola, and Rob Gronkowski.

Flex tiers this week look beautiful, and there are clearly groups of tiers of players that experts evaluate as equals.

Tier 1: Bilal Powell, Darren Sproles, Trent Richardson, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson, DeSean Jackson
Tier 2: Maurice Jones-Drew, Giovani Bernard, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAngelo Williams, Josh Gordon, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, Lamar Miller, David Wilson
Tier 3: Ryan Mathews, Marques Colston, Knowshon Moreno, Anquan Boldin, Daryl Richardson, C.J. Spiller
Tier 4: Steve Smith, Fred Jackson, Stevan Ridley, Hakeem Nicks, Joique Bell, Jordan Cameron, Reggie Wayne
Tier 5: James Jones, Mike Wallace, Danny Woodhead, Danny Amendola
Tier 6: Brian Hartline, Willis McGahee, Cecil Shorts, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 7: Jason Witten, Roddy White, Steve Johnson, Jacquizz Rodgers, Justin Blackmon, Julius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Julian Edelman, Dwayne Bowe
Tier 8: DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffery, Kenbrell Thompkins, Pierre Thomas, Rashard Mendenhall, Tavon Austin, Tony Gonzalez, Ty Hilton, Eddie Royal, Nate Washington
Tier 9: Jason Snelling, Michael Floyd, Denarius Moore, Greg Olsen

Week 5 - TE

Week 5 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | Ki | DST | PPR | 0.5PPR

It looks like there are 7 great tight end starts this week, occupying tier 1.  At a glance, it doesn't look like match ups are affecting the tight end tiers as much, as these are the names that have been continuously been getting lots of targets, especially in the red zone.

Tier 3 is the big drop of this week.  If you don't have Charles Clay or better, think about a trade if your head-to-head matchup looks close.

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Jordan Cameron, Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, Julius Thomas, Tony Gonzalez, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 2: Greg Olsen, Vernon Davis, Martellus Bennett
Tier 3: Jared Cook, Jermichael Finley, Brandon Myers, Owen Daniels, Charles Clay
Tier 4: Coby Fleener, Jermaine Gresham
Tier 5: Dallas Clark, Kellen Winslow, Brandon Pettigrew, Brent Celek, Marcedes Lewis, Tyler Eifert, Robert Housler, Garrett Graham, Zach Miller
Tier 6: Anthony Fasano, Sean McGrath

Week 5 - WR

Week 5 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | Ki | DST | PPR | 0.5PPR

Injury flagged players are usually identifiable as outliers in these chars. This week in WR, Danny Amendola is still questionable, which also explains the high variance of Kembrell Thompkins.

As you can see, the WR rankings this week are not as tiered as they usually are.  They are fairly well behaved until WR45 or so, where it starts to get noisy.

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, A.J. Green
Tier 2: Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Victor Cruz, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Wes Welker, Andre Johnson, DeSean Jackson
Tier 3: Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker, Josh Gordon, Torrey Smith, Marques Colston
Tier 4: Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, Reggie Wayne, James Jones, Mike Wallace, Roddy White, Danny Amendola
Tier 5: Cecil Shorts, Brian Hartline, Steve Johnson, Justin Blackmon
Tier 6: Julian Edelman, Dwayne Bowe, Kenbrell Thompkins, DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffery
Tier 7: Eddie Royal, Tavon Austin, Ty Hilton, Nate Washington, Denarius Moore, Chris Givens, Michael Floyd, Miles Austin, Vincent Brown, Santonio Holmes
Tier 8: Golden Tate, Marlon Brown, Rueben Randle, Robert Woods, Stephen Hill
Tier 9: Kendall Wright, Jeremy Kerley, Austin Pettis, Donnie Avery, Ryan Broyles, Rod Streater, Andre Roberts, Brandon LaFell, Sidney Rice, Riley Cooper
Tier 10: Terrance Williams

Week 5 - RB

Week 5 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | Ki | DST | PPR | 0.5PPR

There is a tremendous but understandable drop after tier 2 this week.  Gore, Rice, and Murray are the last RB's I would count on to produce RB1 numbers.

Everyone after that pack in tier 3 looks more like a RB2 this week.  Trent Richardson, facing the Seattle defense, is dropped into this tier.

David Wilson looked slightly better last week, and experts have put him back among the ranks of Giovani Bernard and Lamar Miller.

Meanwhile, CJ Spiller, who has been continually under produced compared to Fred Jackson, as fallen down to the Ryan Matthews and Knowshon Moreno territory.

Darren McFadden is an injury concern, so keep an eye on him.

Tier 1: LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Reggie Bush, Arian Foster
Tier 2: Frank Gore, Ray Rice, DeMarco Murray
Tier 3: Chris Johnson, Eddie Lacy, Bilal Powell, Trent Richardson, Darren Sproles
Tier 4: Maurice Jones-Drew, DeAngelo Williams, Giovani Bernard, Lamar Miller, David Wilson
Tier 5: Ryan Mathews, Knowshon Moreno, C.J. Spiller, Daryl Richardson
Tier 6: Fred Jackson, Stevan Ridley, Joique Bell, Danny Woodhead, Darren McFadden
Tier 7: Willis McGahee, Jacquizz Rodgers, Rashard Mendenhall, Pierre Thomas
Tier 8: Rashad Jennings, Jason Snelling, Ben Tate, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bernard Pierce
Tier 9: Ahmad Bradshaw, LeGarrette Blount, Andre Ellington

Week 5 - QB

Week 5 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | Ki | DST | PPR | 0.5PPR

Tier 2 quarterbacks continue to be a very tight group.  Vick remains high this week with his excellent matchup this week against the Giants.  Rivers has earned serious respect this week after his performances in the first four weeks.

The drop of between tier 2 and 3 this week I find easily explainable.  Eli has a good matching against the Eagles, but he's been hard to trust.  Kaepernick faces a tough Houston defense which took apart Wilson last week.  It's hard to like anyone below Bradford this week.

Tier 1: Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford
Tier 2: Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan
Tier 3: Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick, Sam Bradford, Terrelle Pryor, Russell Wilson
Tier 4: Andrew Luck, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco
Tier 5: E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith, Blaine Gabbert, Carson Palmer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Locker
Tier 6: Matt Flynn

Week 5 - Introduction

Week 5 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | Ki | DST | PPR | 0.5PPR

Bye weeks: Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Washington

My model takes an aggregation of expert rankings from fantasypros, and passes the data into a machine learning clustering algorithm called a gaussian mixture model. Then, I plot each player in the two dimensional space of weighted expert consensus rank (ECR) and raw average rank, and color them by the tier determined by the algorithm. Match-ups are accounted for.  The result is beautiful charts and tiers that help you set your line up.

Why the model is powerful: Every week, fantasypros collects data from over 130 experts, each of whom watch and analyze football for a living. Both fantasypros and my model build on the intuition that an aggregation of many expert opinions provides more reliable rankings than what any one expert can predict.

On top of this, the clustering algorithm is able to identify players that are ranked similarly in the data and find natural tiers among the players. It is not always the case that QB3 > QB4 > QB5.  Sometimes they are equal, and the algorithm uncovers this.

How to use the charts: Each black dot represents the player's average rank and weighted ECR. The color corresponds to the tier given by the algorithm. I recommend starting players in higher tiers with higher ranks.

Within a tier, there will often be two or more players that appear very close together. This means experts are close to 50/50 on who is better this week. The tiering algorithm says these players are equals this week. In this case, I recommend waiting for more news, flipping a coin, or going with your gut.  If experts can't agree, there is no right answer.

- As always, you can catch my updates on twitter.
- Would love to hear people's thoughts on the two versions of the charts.

 QB

 RB

 WR

 TE

 K

DST

Week 4 - PPR

Week 4 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST | PPR

Updated Friday 9:30 am.

RB PPR

Tier 1: Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy
Tier 2: Doug Martin, DeMarco Murray, Alfred Morris, Marshawn Lynch
Tier 3: Darren McFadden, Frank Gore, Trent Richardson, Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson, C.J. Spiller, Ray Rice
Tier 4: Maurice Jones-Drew, Bilal Powell, Joique Bell, Knowshon Moreno, Giovani Bernard, Bernard Pierce, Jason Snelling, Lamar Miller
Tier 5: Stevan Ridley, Jacquizz Rodgers
Tier 6: Fred Jackson, David Wilson, Daryl Richardson, Ryan Mathews, Pierre Thomas, Ahmad Bradshaw, Danny Woodhead, Le'Veon Bell, Rashard Mendenhall

WR PPR

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green
Tier 2: Wes Welker, DeSean Jackson, Victor Cruz, Pierre Garcon, Reggie Wayne, Antonio Brown
Tier 3: Larry Fitzgerald, Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, Marques Colston, Andre Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Anquan Boldin, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon
Tier 4: Steve Johnson, Mike Wallace
Tier 5: Hakeem Nicks, Cecil Shorts, Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline, Ty Hilton, Eddie Royal
Tier 6: Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Kenbrell Thompkins, Roddy White, Mike Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Denarius Moore, Miles Austin
Tier 7: Chris Givens, Michael Floyd, Santonio Holmes, Marlon Brown, Ryan Broyles, Golden Tate, Greg Jennings, Stephen Hill, Kendall Wright
Tier 8: Andre Roberts, Donnie Avery

TE PPR

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten, Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron
Tier 2: Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, Vernon Davis
Tier 3: Jared Cook, Owen Daniels, Coby Fleener, Brandon Myers, Charles Clay, Heath Miller
Tier 4: Kyle Rudolph, Jermaine Gresham, Tyler Eifert
Tier 5: Brent Celek, Scott Chandler, Brandon Pettigrew, Robert Housler, Zach Miller, Dallas Clark, Jordan Reed, Kellen Winslow, Marcedes Lewis
Tier 6: Anthony Fasano, Zach Ertz, Delanie Walker

FLEX PPR

Tier 1: Darren McFadden, Reggie Wayne, Antonio Brown, Frank Gore, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Bush
Tier 2: Trent Richardson, Torrey Smith, Arian Foster, Darren Sproles, Eric Decker, Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Jason Witten, Chris Johnson, Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon, C.J. Spiller, Ray Rice
Tier 3: Julius Thomas, Steve Johnson, Mike Wallace, Jordan Cameron, Maurice Jones-Drew, Cecil Shorts, Hakeem Nicks, Bilal Powell, Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline
Tier 4: Ty Hilton, Joique Bell, Giovani Bernard, Knowshon Moreno, Bernard Pierce, Tony Gonzalez, Eddie Royal, Jason Snelling, Rob Gronkowski
Tier 5: Antonio Gates, Tavon Austin, Lamar Miller, DeAndre Hopkins, Kenbrell Thompkins, Stevan Ridley, Mike Williams, Roddy White, Jacquizz Rodgers, Emmanuel Sanders, Denarius Moore, Miles Austin
Tier 6: Martellus Bennett, Vernon Davis, Chris Givens, Fred Jackson, Michael Floyd, Jared Cook, Daryl Richardson, David Wilson, Golden Tate

Week 4 Navigation:
QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST | PPR

Week 4 - Intro - Visualized Tiers and Ranks

Wednesday edition. Thursday 8/26 update. Friday 9/27 update. Sunday update here.

Week 4 byes: Carolina, Green Bay

My model pulls aggregated expert rankings from fantasypros, and I pass that data into a machine learning clustering algorithm called a gaussian mixture model to find tiers of players each week. Then I plot them in two dimensional space and the result is charts that let you easily decide your line up each week.

Week 4 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST | PPR | Sunday

I recommend starting players in higher tiers.  Players in the same tier that have close vertical distances between them have plenty of disagreement among the experts, so feel free to use your own judgement or simply flip a coin.  For example, I'd take Josh Gordon over Hakeem Nicks this week.

I plan to do an update tomorrow morning, Thurs 9/26, which I'll post on twitter and here.  Updates have been made in each section (9:30am, Friday 9/27). Look more updates going into the weekend.

Here are all the charts for you to scroll through. I've made individual comments on each page, so don't forget to check them out.  (protip: left click image > right click > view image in new tab)

QB

 RB

 WR

 TE

 Flex

 Ki

 DST

Week 4 - Quarterbacks

Week 4 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST | PPR | Sunday

This looks like a fun week for QB's. Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers are on bye this week. The next 7 QB's, Romo to Luck, look more or less equal to the experts.

Pryor has snuck into the top 15 this week and is a great option for owners on QB bye week. One could argue that QB12-QB21 could also be one tier, and I wouldn't oppose.

Schaub faces the Seahawks this week, and I might even take Geno Smith Mike Glennon over him this week.

edit: Freeman was benched today so he'll likely fall off the chart tomorrow. Rivers, Pryor, Cutler, and Big Ben (and to an extent, through tier 5 down to Tannehill) all make fine bye will fillers.

edit: Hello Mike Glennon!

Tier 1: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees
Tier 2: Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Andrew Luck
Tier 3: Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson
Tier 4: Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Terrelle Pryor
Tier 5: Alex Smith, Andy Dalton, Sam Bradford, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Ryan Tannehill, Carson Palmer
Tier 6: E.J. Manuel, Matt Schaub, Geno Smith, Brian Hoyer, Jake Locker
Tier 7: Matt Flynn, Josh Freeman, Mike Glennon

Sunday

Week 4 - Running Backs

Week 4 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST | PPR | Sunday

I love the RB tiers this week.  They are extremely intuitive and inline with most experts feelings thus far. Anyone in tier 1 or 3 is capable of RB1 numbers. Tier 4 backs you can probably count on to produce RB2 numbers and should not be benched.

Tier 5 is by far the most interesting group to me. Bernard, Moreno, Miller, Powell, Sproles, Bell and Pierce now are exact equals going into Wednesday. This is the "boom or bust" tier. Notice that most the backs here are in time shares and our algorithm groups them together.

Ridley continues to drop. Powell comes out of nowhere filling for an injured Ivory on the 2-1 Jets.

Experts are giving CJ Spiller another week, where as the ship has sailed on David Wilson who has dropped into tier 5 this week.  edit: Wilson is on the same tier as Fred Jackson now, and if you asked me I'd take Jackson over Wilson this week.

A couple injuries still hang from last week: Reggie Bush and Ray Rice.  Check as the week goes on to see their solidify one way or the other. Looks like both Bush and Rice will be playing this week, and they're set in tiers 4, but don't expect Rice to get his normal work load.

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy
Tier 2: Matt Forte, Doug Martin, Alfred Morris, Marshawn Lynch, DeMarco Murray
Tier 3: Darren McFadden, Frank Gore, Trent Richardson, Arian Foster
Tier 4: Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush, C.J. Spiller, Maurice Jones-Drew, Bilal Powell, Ray Rice
Tier 5: Darren Sproles, Giovani Bernard, Lamar Miller, Bernard Pierce, Knowshon Moreno, Stevan Ridley, Joique Bell
Tier 6: Ahmad Bradshaw, David Wilson, Ryan Mathews, Daryl Richardson, Fred Jackson, Jason Snelling, Jacquizz Rodgers, Rashard Mendenhall, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 7: Pierre Thomas, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Ben Tate
Tier 8: Danny Woodhead, Brandon Bolden, Willis McGahee

Sunday

Week 4 - Wide Receivers

Week 4 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST | PPR | Sunday

Everyone in tier 4 or higher looks like a easy set this week.  No reason not to start anyone here.  Sure, Revis is on Fitzgerald, but that's a hard sit to make.

The Broncos have three wide outs at WR20 or higher, although Thomas and Welker stand much higher than Decker, to no one's surprise.

Tier 5 is where it starts to get dicey this week. Feel great if you have all three WR's in tier 4 or above.

edit: I like the drop off and tier separation found between tier 4 and 5.  Hilton has flopped 2 out of 3 weeks and the Colts have too many offensive weapons now.  Anyone after Hilton is hard to love.

In deeper leagues, I'd feel okay if your WR3 is Givens or better, as the drop off after tier 6 is also substantial.

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green
Tier 2: DeSean Jackson, Wes Welker, Pierre Garcon, Victor Cruz
Tier 3: Torrey Smith, Reggie Wayne, Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Josh Gordon, Andre Johnson, Anquan Boldin
Tier 4: Mike Wallace, Steve Johnson, Julian Edelman, Dwayne Bowe, Hakeem Nicks, Cecil Shorts, Ty Hilton
Tier 5: Brian Hartline, Kenbrell Thompkins, Mike Williams, Tavon Austin, DeAndre Hopkins, Roddy White, Eddie Royal, Denarius Moore
Tier 6: Emmanuel Sanders, Miles Austin, Chris Givens
Tier 7: Michael Floyd, Golden Tate, Santonio Holmes, Marlon Brown, Greg Jennings, Stephen Hill, Ryan Broyles, Alshon Jeffery, Aaron Dobson, Kendall Wright, Sidney Rice
Tier 8: Donnie Avery, Andre Roberts, Rod Streater, Vincent Brown, Lance Moore, Nate Washington, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle
Tier 9: Leonard Hankerson, Santana Moss, Kenny Britt

Sunday

Week 4 - Tight Ends

Week 4 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST | PPR | Sunday

Gronkowski should be back and if he is, he's set up in tier 1 in his first week back.

Jimmy Graham continues to eat yardage and touchdowns for breakfast.

Fleener, Miller, and Clay have crawled their way up to tier 4.

Gonzalez remains in tier 1 despite a slow start this year.  If he continues to not produce I can't imagine he will stay at this level. edit: The rest of the experts have weighed in and Gonzalez is out of tier 1 for this week.

Interestingly, Gates has shot up to the top of tier 2 as part of a revived San Diego offense, despite being knocked repeated by many experts.

Celek tanks to tier 5 after two bad weeks for both his fantasy line and the Eagles.

edit: Gronk is a completely question mark right now.  I advise checking rotoworld on Sunday.

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten, Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron
Tier 2: Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, (Rob Gronkowski), Vernon Davis
Tier 3: Martellus Bennett, Jared Cook, Owen Daniels
Tier 4: Coby Fleener, Brandon Myers, Heath Miller, Charles Clay, Kyle Rudolph
Tier 5: Brent Celek, Jermaine Gresham, Scott Chandler, Tyler Eifert, Jordan Reed
Tier 6: Brandon Pettigrew, Dallas Clark, Kellen Winslow, Robert Housler

Sunday

Week 4 - Flex

Week 4 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST | PPR | Sunday

There are a few outliers related to injuries to keep an eye out for: MJD, Reggie Bush, and Gronkowski. edit: Bush looks like he's a go.  Gronk is subject to change, keep up to date on rotoworld.

Tier 1: DeSean Jackson, Chris Johnson, C.J. Spiller, Wes Welker, Reggie Bush, Ray Rice
Tier 2: Pierre Garcon, Victor Cruz, Maurice Jones-Drew, Bilal Powell
Tier 3: Torrey Smith, Reggie Wayne, Darren Sproles, Antonio Brown, Giovani Bernard, Lamar Miller, Larry Fitzgerald, Marques Colston, Eric Decker
Tier 4: Vincent Jackson, Stevan Ridley, Bernard Pierce, Knowshon Moreno, Josh Gordon, Andre Johnson, Joique Bell, Anquan Boldin, Mike Wallace
Tier 5: Steve Johnson, Hakeem Nicks, Dwayne Bowe, Cecil Shorts, Julian Edelman
Tier 6: Julius Thomas, Jason Witten, Ty Hilton, David Wilson, Jordan Cameron, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ryan Mathews, Daryl Richardson
Tier 7: Brian Hartline, Fred Jackson, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 8: Tavon Austin, Kenbrell Thompkins, Mike Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Rashard Mendenhall, Roddy White, Jason Snelling, Jacquizz Rodgers, Eddie Royal
Tier 9: Tony Gonzalez, Chris Givens, Pierre Thomas, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Denarius Moore, Emmanuel Sanders, Antonio Gates, Miles Austin

Sunday

Week 4 - Defense

Week 4 Navigation: Intro | QB | RB | WR | TE | Flex | K | DST | PPR | Sunday

Are the Chief's defense for real?  Most experts seem to be on board.

Don't be distracted by the 17 projected points of the Vikings on Yahoo scoring.  Last week Matt Prater was projected at 5 and he kicked in 17 points.

Yahoo projections and the chart I make don't typically agree.

Tier 1: Seattle Seahawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, Chicago Bears
Tier 2: Denver Broncos, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Indianapolis Colts
Tier 3: Minnesota Vikings, Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets, Houston Texans, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys, Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tier 4: St. Louis Rams, Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints
Tier 5: Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, New York Giants, Washington Redskins, San Diego Chargers
Tier 6: Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday