Final Predraft Tiers and Rankings - Visualized (PPR + 0.5 PPR)

PPR Charts

(protip: left click image > right click > "open image in new tab")

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson (RB1), Doug Martin (RB2), Jamaal Charles (RB3), Calvin Johnson (WR1), C.J. Spiller (RB4), LeSean McCoy (RB5), Ray Rice (RB6), Trent Richardson (RB7)

Tier 2: Brandon Marshall (WR2), A.J. Green (WR3), Dez Bryant (WR4), Arian Foster (RB8), Matt Forte (RB9), Jimmy Graham (TE1), Julio Jones (WR5), Demaryius Thomas (WR6), Marshawn Lynch (RB10)

Tier 3: Darren Sproles (RB11), Andre Johnson (WR7), Larry Fitzgerald (WR8), Drew Brees (QB1), Roddy White (WR9), Aaron Rodgers (QB2), Steven Jackson (RB12), Randall Cobb (WR10), Reggie Bush (RB13), Victor Cruz (WR11), Alfred Morris (RB14), Chris Johnson (RB15), Maurice Jones-Drew (RB16)

Tier 4: Danny Amendola (WR12), Reggie Wayne (WR13), Vincent Jackson (WR14), Marques Colston (WR15), Dwayne Bowe (WR16), Jason Witten (TE2), Peyton Manning (QB3), Cam Newton (QB4), Wes Welker (WR17), DeMarco Murray (RB17), Darren McFadden (RB18), Stevan Ridley (RB19)

Tier 5: Antonio Brown (WR18), Tom Brady (QB5), Rob Gronkowski (TE3), Hakeem Nicks (WR19), Tony Gonzalez (TE4), Frank Gore (RB20), Pierre Garcon (WR20), Matt Ryan (QB6), Lamar Miller (RB21), David Wilson (RB22), Steve Smith (WR21)

Tier 6: Eric Decker (WR22), Torrey Smith (WR23), Matthew Stafford (QB7), Mike Wallace (WR24), Jordy Nelson (WR25), Robert Griffin III (QB8), Steve Johnson (WR26), Steve Johnson (WR26), Ryan Mathews (RB23), Colin Kaepernick (QB9), Cecil Shorts (WR27), Vernon Davis (TE5), Andrew Luck (QB10), Russell Wilson (QB11), Daryl Richardson (RB24), Shane Vereen (RB25), DeSean Jackson (WR28), Greg Jennings (WR29), Tony Romo (QB12), James Jones (WR30), Giovani Bernard (RB26)

Tier 7: Ahmad Bradshaw (RB27), Eddie Lacy (RB28), Ty Hilton (WR31), Mike Williams (WR32), Christopher Ivory (RB29), Miles Austin (WR33), Greg Olsen (TE6), Anquan Boldin (WR34), Rashard Mendenhall (RB30), Montee Ball (RB31)

Tier 8: Kenny Britt (WR35), Josh Gordon (WR36), Lance Moore (WR37), Kyle Rudolph (TE7), Jermichael Finley (TE8), Eli Manning (QB13), Andre Brown (RB32), Jared Cook (TE9)

Tier 9: Emmanuel Sanders (WR38), Tavon Austin (WR39), Owen Daniels (TE10), DeAngelo Williams (RB33), Jordan Cameron (TE11), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB34), Brandon Myers (TE12), Chris Givens (WR40), Michael Floyd (WR41)

Tier 10: Antonio Gates (TE13), Mark Ingram (RB35), Kendall Wright (WR42), Golden Tate (WR43), Justin Blackmon (WR44), Ronnie Hillman (RB36), Danny Woodhead (RB37), Fred Jackson (RB38), Martellus Bennett (TE14), Pierre Thomas (RB39)

Tier 11: Vincent Brown (WR45), Brandon Pettigrew (TE15), Denarius Moore (WR46), DeAndre Hopkins (WR47), Brian Hartline (WR48), Vick Ballard (RB41), Ben Roethlisberger (QB14), Michael Vick (QB15), Andy Dalton (QB16), Bernard Pierce (RB42), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB43), Sidney Rice (WR49), Fred Davis (TE16), Ryan Broyles (WR50), Le'Veon Bell (RB44), Kenbrell Thompkins (WR54)

Tier 12: Alshon Jeffery (WR51), Jonathan Stewart (RB45), Bryce Brown (RB46), Jay Cutler (QB17), Isaiah Pead (RB47), Rueben Randle (WR52), Greg Little (WR53)

Tier 13: Josh Freeman (QB18), Carson Palmer (QB19), Sam Bradford (QB20), Joe Flacco (QB21), Robert Housler (TE17), Jermaine Gresham (TE18), Mikel Leshoure (RB48), Joique Bell (RB49)

Tier 14: Malcom Floyd (WR55), Tyler Eifert (TE19), Matt Schaub (QB22), Brandon LaFell (WR56), Marcel Reece (RB50), Dwayne Allen (TE20), Coby Fleener (TE21), Zach Sudfeld (TE22), Bilal Powell (RB52), Jonathan Dwyer (RB54)

Tier 15: Cordarrelle Patterson (WR57), Philip Rivers (QB23), Rod Streater (WR58), Shonn Greene (RB51), Jeremy Kerley (WR59), Ed Dickson (TE23), Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR60), Ryan Tannehill (QB24), Mohamed Sanu (WR61), Andre Roberts (WR62), Johnathan Franklin (RB53), Aaron Dobson (WR63), Knowshon Moreno (RB55)

0.5-PPR charts

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson (RB1), Doug Martin (RB2), Jamaal Charles (RB3), C.J. Spiller (RB4), Calvin Johnson (WR1), LeSean McCoy (RB5), Ray Rice (RB6), Trent Richardson (RB7), Arian Foster (RB8)

Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch (RB9), A.J. Green (WR2), Dez Bryant (WR3), Brandon Marshall (WR4), Matt Forte (RB10), Jimmy Graham (TE1), Julio Jones (WR5), Demaryius Thomas (WR6), Alfred Morris (RB11), Steven Jackson (RB12)

Tier 3: Drew Brees (QB1), Aaron Rodgers (QB2), Chris Johnson (RB13), Larry Fitzgerald (WR7), Andre Johnson (WR8), Roddy White (WR9), Reggie Bush (RB14), Maurice Jones-Drew (RB15), Randall Cobb (WR10), Victor Cruz (WR11)

Tier 4: Stevan Ridley (RB16), Vincent Jackson (WR12), Darren Sproles (RB17), Peyton Manning (QB3), DeMarco Murray (RB18), Marques Colston (WR13), Reggie Wayne (WR14), Cam Newton (QB4), Frank Gore (RB19), Danny Amendola (WR15), Dwayne Bowe (WR16), Darren McFadden (RB20)

Tier 5: David Wilson (RB21), Jason Witten (TE2), Lamar Miller (RB22), Tom Brady (QB5), Wes Welker (WR17), Rob Gronkowski (TE3), Hakeem Nicks (WR18), Matt Ryan (QB6), Antonio Brown (WR19), Pierre Garcon (WR20)

Tier 6: Tony Gonzalez (TE4), Torrey Smith (WR21), Steve Smith (WR22), Matthew Stafford (QB7), Eric Decker (WR23), Jordy Nelson (WR24)

Tier 7: Robert Griffin III (QB8), Mike Wallace (WR25), Ryan Mathews (RB23), Eddie Lacy (RB24), Colin Kaepernick (QB9), Vernon Davis (TE5), Cecil Shorts (WR26), Andrew Luck (QB10), Russell Wilson (QB11), Daryl Richardson (RB25), Shane Vereen (RB26), DeSean Jackson (WR27), Ahmad Bradshaw (RB27), Tony Romo (QB12), Giovani Bernard (RB28), James Jones (WR28), Steve Johnson (WR29), Christopher Ivory (RB29)

Tier 8: Greg Jennings (WR30), Montee Ball (RB30), Ty Hilton (WR31), Rashard Mendenhall (RB31), Mike Williams (WR32), Miles Austin (WR33)

Tier 9: Greg Olsen (TE6), Josh Gordon (WR34), Andre Brown (RB32), Anquan Boldin (WR35), Kenny Britt (WR36), Lance Moore (WR37), DeAngelo Williams (RB33)

Tier 10: Kyle Rudolph (TE7), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB34), Eli Manning (QB13), Tavon Austin (WR38), Mark Ingram (RB35), Jared Cook (TE8), Jermichael Finley (TE9)

Tier 11: Owen Daniels (TE10), Ben Tate (RB36), Emmanuel Sanders (WR39), Chris Givens (WR40), Jordan Cameron (TE11), Ronnie Hillman (RB37), Michael Floyd (WR41), Golden Tate (WR42), Antonio Gates (TE12)

Tier 12: Bernard Pierce (RB38), Danny Woodhead (RB39), Le'Veon Bell (RB40), Fred Jackson (RB41), Pierre Thomas (RB42), Denarius Moore (WR43), Justin Blackmon (WR44), Brandon Myers (TE13), Michael Vick (QB14), Danario Alexander (WR45), Vick Ballard (RB43), Vincent Brown (WR46), Martellus Bennett (TE14), Bryce Brown (RB44), Ben Roethlisberger (QB15), DeAndre Hopkins (WR47), Sidney Rice (WR48), Kendall Wright (WR49), Andy Dalton (QB16)

Tier 13: Jonathan Stewart (RB45), Kenbrell Thompkins (WR50), Ryan Broyles (WR51), Alshon Jeffery (WR52), Fred Davis (TE15), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB46), Brian Hartline (WR53), Brandon Pettigrew (TE16), Isaiah Pead (RB47), Jay Cutler (QB17), Rueben Randle (WR54)

Tier 14: Mikel Leshoure (RB48), Carson Palmer (QB18), Josh Freeman (QB19), Joe Flacco (QB20), Sam Bradford (QB21), Jonathan Dwyer (RB49), Greg Little (WR55), Joique Bell (RB50), Isaac Redman (RB51), Bilal Powell (RB52)

Tier 15: Shonn Greene (RB53), Ace Sanders (WR56), Malcom Floyd (WR57), Zach Sudfeld (TE17), Robert Housler (TE18), Matt Schaub (QB22), Johnathan Franklin (RB54), Cordarrelle Patterson (WR58), Philip Rivers (QB23), Jermaine Gresham (TE19), Brandon LaFell (WR59), Michael Bush (RB55), Roy Helu (RB56), Knowshon Moreno (RB57), Aaron Dobson (WR60), Marcel Reece (RB58)


Don't forget to follow me on twitter to catch updates!

Final Predraft Tiers and Rankings - Visualized (Standard)

I've updated my charts as of today's rankings (August 25th, 2013).  As always, thanks to fantasypros for their great data. Unfortunately I don't have time to write my insights, but I hope the charts can help you draft! I will scribble notes as I can, or as people bring up things in discussion:

- There are now 23 solid running backs, as Miller, Sproles, and Lacy have emerged from preseason as viable producers.  Don't feel pressured to go RB-RB, especially in 10 man leagues.

- Quarterback situation of the top 12 did not change. 

- Link to my google spreadsheet I will personably be using.  Please make a copy to your personal google drive!

Good luck drafting!  Don't forget to follow me (@borisachen) for updates on tiers each week once the season starts.

(if you play PPR or 0.5 PPR click here)

(protip: left click image > right click > "open image in new tab")

 

 

Standard format tiers:

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson (RB1), Doug Martin (RB2), Jamaal Charles (RB3), C.J. Spiller (RB4), LeSean McCoy (RB5), Marshawn Lynch (RB6), Arian Foster (RB7), Trent Richardson (RB8), Ray Rice (RB9), Calvin Johnson (WR1)

Tier 2: Alfred Morris (RB10), Dez Bryant (WR2), A.J. Green (WR3), Brandon Marshall (WR4), Jimmy Graham (TE1), Matt Forte (RB11)

Tier 3: Julio Jones (WR5), Demaryius Thomas (WR6), Steven Jackson (RB12), Drew Brees (QB1), Aaron Rodgers (QB2), Stevan Ridley (RB13), Chris Johnson (RB14), Larry Fitzgerald (WR7), Maurice Jones-Drew (RB15)

Tier 4: Roddy White (WR8), Andre Johnson (WR9), Vincent Jackson (WR10), Randall Cobb (WR11), Victor Cruz (WR12), Frank Gore (RB16), Reggie Bush (RB17), Peyton Manning (QB3), Cam Newton (QB4), DeMarco Murray (RB18)

Tier 5: Marques Colston (WR13), David Wilson (RB19), Dwayne Bowe (WR14), Reggie Wayne (WR15), Tom Brady (QB5), Darren McFadden (RB20), Lamar Miller (RB21)

Tier 6: Danny Amendola (WR16), Rob Gronkowski (TE2), Darren Sproles (RB22), Matt Ryan (QB6), Hakeem Nicks (WR17), Jason Witten (TE3), Torrey Smith (WR18), Pierre Garcon (WR19)

Tier 7: Pierre Garcon (WR19), Wes Welker (WR20), Eddie Lacy (RB23), Matthew Stafford (QB7), Jordy Nelson (WR21), Antonio Brown (WR22), Eric Decker (WR23), Tony Gonzalez (TE4), Robert Griffin III (QB8), Steve Smith (WR24), Colin Kaepernick (QB9), Ryan Mathews (RB24)

Tier 8: Mike Wallace (WR25), Vernon Davis (TE5), Russell Wilson (QB10), Andrew Luck (QB11), Cecil Shorts (WR26), Ahmad Bradshaw (RB25), Christopher Ivory (RB26), Montee Ball (RB27), James Jones (WR27), Tony Romo (QB12), Giovani Bernard (RB28), Daryl Richardson (RB29), DeSean Jackson (WR28), Shane Vereen (RB30)

Tier 9: Rashard Mendenhall (RB31), Ty Hilton (WR29), Steve Johnson (WR30), Greg Jennings (WR31), Mike Williams (WR32), Andre Brown (RB32), DeAngelo Williams (RB33), Miles Austin (WR33), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB34)

Tier 10: Greg Olsen (TE6), Josh Gordon (WR34), Mark Ingram (RB35), Kenny Britt (WR35), Anquan Boldin (WR36), Lance Moore (WR37), Kyle Rudolph (TE7), Eli Manning (QB13), Tavon Austin (WR38), Ben Tate (RB36)

Tier 11: Ronnie Hillman (RB37), Bernard Pierce (RB38), Jared Cook (TE8), Jermichael Finley (TE9), Golden Tate (WR39), Owen Daniels (TE10)

Tier 12: Owen Daniels (TE10), Chris Givens (WR40), Emmanuel Sanders (WR41), Bryce Brown (RB39), Michael Vick (QB14), Antonio Gates (TE11), Fred Jackson (RB40), Vick Ballard (RB41), Pierre Thomas (RB42), Jordan Cameron (TE12), Michael Floyd (WR44) 

Tier 13: Vincent Brown (WR42), Sidney Rice (WR43), Danny Woodhead (RB43), Ben Roethlisberger (QB15), DeAndre Hopkins (WR45), Denarius Moore (WR46), Le'Veon Bell (RB44), Martellus Bennett (TE13), Justin Blackmon (WR47), Andy Dalton (QB16), Jonathan Stewart (RB45)

Tier 14: Brandon Myers (TE14), Alshon Jeffery (WR48), Kendall Wright (WR49), Jay Cutler (QB17), Rueben Randle (WR50), Ryan Broyles (WR51), Kenbrell Thompkins (WR52), Jonathan Dwyer (RB47), Fred Davis (TE15)

Tier 15: Shonn Greene (RB46), Josh Freeman (QB18), Brian Hartline (WR53), Carson Palmer (QB19), Joe Flacco (QB20), Isaiah Pead (RB48), Mikel Leshoure (RB49), Sam Bradford (QB21), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB50), Bilal Powell (RB51), Michael Bush (RB52)

Tier 16: Brandon Pettigrew (TE16), Matt Schaub (QB22), Cordarrelle Patterson (WR54), Malcom Floyd (WR55), Johnathan Franklin (RB53), Joique Bell (RB54), Greg Little (WR56), Daniel Thomas (RB55), Isaac Redman (RB56), Philip Rivers (QB23)

Tier 17: Brandon LaFell (WR57), Aaron Dobson (WR58), Knowshon Moreno (RB57), Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR59), Ryan Tannehill (QB24), Zach Sudfeld (TE17), Alex Smith (QB25), Andre Roberts (WR60), Zac Stacy (RB58)

Cross Position Tiers and Draft Ranges

In this article, I will address two topics:

(1) tiers across all positions, and
(2) what an appropriate range to draft a certain player is (i.e. Aaron Rodgers)

I've provided full commentary for standard leagues, but you can scroll down to find tier lists and charts for 1-point PPR and 0.5-point PPR formats.

For generating (1), I fit a gaussian mixture model over the average rankings of expert rankings rankings provided by fantasypros.  In other words, I'm using a machine learning algorithm to discover natural tiers of players based on a vote of experts.

For generating (2), I provide a set of charts below that can give you a quick way of seeing if at least 70% of experts would agree with you on your pick. The grey bars are half standard deviations of the rankings. In english, that means the bottom and top of these bars represent the 30% and 70% percentiles of the expert rankings (30.9% and 69.1% to be exact).

(protip: left click image, then right click > open image in new tab to see full size)

Here is an example of how you can read this figure. Roughly 70% of experts would take Forte/Jackson over Rodgers (or if you prefer, 30% of experts think Rodgers is a better value pick than Forte/Jackson), so I will call 16th overall roughly the top end of his range. I'm hedging my claim by calling it "roughly", since these charts are meant provide quick approximations.

So how late could you pick Rodgers or Brees?  The bottom end of their range is Maurice Jones-Drew, or 25th overall. To be precise, this means 70% of experts think they should be drafted before Roddy White, or should be delayed until after the 25th overall pick.  For the rest of this article, let's use this as our definition of draft-able range.

Fitzgerald and MJD don't quite make tier 2, understandably, as their fantasy production levels are still a question mark (Fitz with a new QB, and MJD who can't seem to stay healthy).  Fitzgerald is the safer pick between the two, which you can see since his variance is much lower.

So about the appropriate range for picking up Peyton and Cam?  The answer is anywhere from before Roddy White down to McFadden (26th overall to 35th overall).  Above or below this range you'll find 70% of experts disagreeing with you.

Gronkowski is an interesting one because of his high variance.  Experts think he can fall anywhere between Colston, who is 36 overall, and Steve Smith, who is 59 overall.  This is something you can't really see from looking at a plain ranking chart, or even several position tier lists.  Generally, a high variance player means high risk and high reward, which is certainly the case with Gronk.

Going back to QB's, since taking them late is such a hot topic this year, the range for Brady and Ryan is anywhere between 37 overall and 54 overall.

Reiterating on a point I made in earlier post, you can see the large drop off in value after Romo, even across all positions.  His drafting range is between 65th overall and 75th overall, between Davis and Vareen.

Notice two things about tight ends. First, they have larger variance, meaning the acceptable range of drafting them is larger. Second, they tend to be at the edge or in between tiers (see Witten, Davis, Rudolph, Daniels).  This means you're justified in drafting them on the lower or upper tier they sit between, depending on your positional needs.  Here are the draft-able ranges for some of the later TE's:

Vernon Davis: 58-71
Greg Olsen: 75-90
Kyle Rudolph: 80-94
Owen Daniels: 85-104

The bottom line is you can use these charts to help determine if you are reaching to far to pick a certain player, or a particular player has fallen too far down in the draft.

Good luck drafting!  Be sure to follow me on twitter for week-to-week updates through out the season.

Standard league tier list

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson (RB1), Doug Martin (RB2), Arian Foster (RB3), Jamaal Charles (RB4), C.J. Spiller (RB5), Marshawn Lynch (RB6), Calvin Johnson (WR1), Ray Rice (RB7), LeSean McCoy (RB8), Trent Richardson (RB9), Alfred Morris (RB10)

Tier 2: A.J. Green (WR2), Dez Bryant (WR3), Jimmy Graham (TE1), Brandon Marshall (WR4), Matt Forte (RB11), Steven Jackson (RB12), Julio Jones (WR5), Aaron Rodgers (QB1), Demaryius Thomas (WR6), Stevan Ridley (RB13), Drew Brees (QB2), Chris Johnson (RB14)

Tier 3: Larry Fitzgerald (WR7), Maurice Jones-Drew (RB15), Roddy White (WR8), Andre Johnson (WR9), Randall Cobb (WR10), Victor Cruz (WR11), Vincent Jackson (WR12), Peyton Manning (QB3), Frank Gore (RB16), Reggie Bush (RB17), Cam Newton (QB4)
Tier 4: DeMarco Murray (RB18), Marques Colston (WR13), Lamar Miller (RB19), Darren McFadden (RB20), Dwayne Bowe (WR14), David Wilson (RB21)

Tier 5: Reggie Wayne (WR15), Tom Brady (QB5), Le'Veon Bell (RB22), Matt Ryan (QB6), Rob Gronkowski (TE2), Hakeem Nicks (WR16), Darren Sproles (RB23), Jordy Nelson (WR17), Danny Amendola (WR18)

Tier 6: Jason Witten (TE3), Wes Welker (WR19), Matthew Stafford (QB7), Torrey Smith (WR20), Pierre Garcon (WR21), Eric Decker (WR22), Antonio Brown (WR23), Tony Gonzalez (TE4), Robert Griffin III (QB8), Steve Smith (WR24), Mike Wallace (WR25), Colin Kaepernick (QB9), Christopher Ivory (RB24), Montee Ball (RB25)

Tier 7: Vernon Davis (TE5), Andrew Luck (QB10), Russell Wilson (QB11), Ryan Mathews (RB26), Ahmad Bradshaw (RB27), Cecil Shorts (WR26), Eddie Lacy (RB28), James Jones (WR27), Tony Romo (QB12), Giovani Bernard (RB30)

Tier 8: Rashard Mendenhall (RB29), Steve Johnson (WR28), Shane Vereen (RB31), DeSean Jackson (WR29), Greg Jennings (WR30), Mike Williams (WR31), Andre Brown (RB32), Miles Austin (WR32), Ty Hilton (WR33), Greg Olsen (TE6), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB33)

Tier 9: Kyle Rudolph (TE7), DeAngelo Williams (RB34), Tavon Austin (WR34), Kenny Britt (WR35), Daryl Richardson (RB35), Eli Manning (QB13), Josh Gordon (WR36), Lance Moore (WR37), Anquan Boldin (WR38), Mark Ingram (RB36)

Tier 10: Owen Daniels (TE8), Jonathan Stewart (RB37), Ronnie Hillman (RB38), Fred Jackson (RB39), Bernard Pierce (RB40), Ben Tate (RB41), Jared Cook (TE9), Vick Ballard (RB42), Bryce Brown (RB43), Denarius Moore (WR39)

Tier 11: Martellus Bennett (TE10), Sidney Rice (WR40), Ben Roethlisberger (QB14), Jermichael Finley (TE11), Antonio Gates (TE12), Pierre Thomas (RB44), Michael Floyd (WR41), Emmanuel Sanders (WR42), Johnathan Franklin (RB45), Isaiah Pead (RB46), Golden Tate (WR43), Danny Woodhead (RB47), Kendall Wright (WR44), Justin Blackmon (WR45), Andy Dalton (QB15), Vincent Brown (WR46), Brandon Myers (TE13), Mikel Leshoure (RB48)

Tier 12: Alshon Jeffery (WR47), DeAndre Hopkins (WR48), Jay Cutler (QB16), Chris Givens (WR49), Ryan Broyles (WR50), Zac Stacy (RB49), Joe Flacco (QB17), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB50), Josh Freeman (QB18), Michael Vick (QB19)

Tier 13: Brian Hartline (WR51), Shonn Greene (RB51), Seattle Seahawks (DST1), Brandon Pettigrew (TE14), Sam Bradford (QB20), Rueben Randle (WR52), Aaron Dobson (WR53), Philip Rivers (QB21), Malcom Floyd (WR54), Michael Bush (RB52), Jordan Cameron (TE15), Fred Davis (TE16)

Tier 14: Carson Palmer (QB22), Matt Schaub (QB23), Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR55), San Francisco 49ers (DST2), Ryan Tannehill (QB24), Jermaine Gresham (TE17), Bilal Powell (RB53), Brandon LaFell (WR56), Knowshon Moreno (RB54), Ryan Williams (RB55), Greg Little (WR57)

Tier 15: Cordarrelle Patterson (WR58), Chicago Bears (DST3), Denver Broncos (DST4), Houston Texans (DST5), Marcel Reece (RB56)

1 point PPR

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson (RB1), Doug Martin (RB2), Jamaal Charles (RB3), Arian Foster (RB4), C.J. Spiller (RB5), Ray Rice (RB6), LeSean McCoy (RB7), Calvin Johnson (WR1), Trent Richardson (RB8)

Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch (RB9), Brandon Marshall (WR2), A.J. Green (WR3), Dez Bryant (WR4), Matt Forte (RB10), Jimmy Graham (TE1), Julio Jones (WR5), Demaryius Thomas (WR6)

Tier 3: Steven Jackson (RB11), Darren Sproles (RB12), Alfred Morris (RB13), Reggie Bush (RB14), Andre Johnson (WR7), Chris Johnson (RB15), Larry Fitzgerald (WR8), Drew Brees (QB1), Aaron Rodgers (QB2), Roddy White (WR9), Randall Cobb (WR10), Victor Cruz (WR11)

Tier 4: Maurice Jones-Drew (RB16), Reggie Wayne (WR12), Vincent Jackson (WR13), Stevan Ridley (RB17), DeMarco Murray (RB18), Darren McFadden (RB19), Lamar Miller (RB20), Danny Amendola (WR14), Dwayne Bowe (WR15), Jason Witten (TE2), Marques Colston (WR16), Peyton Manning (QB3), Cam Newton (QB4), Wes Welker (WR17)

Tier 5: Frank Gore (RB21), Rob Gronkowski (TE3), David Wilson (RB22), Hakeem Nicks (WR18), Antonio Brown (WR19), Tony Gonzalez (TE4), Tom Brady (QB5), Pierre Garcon (WR20), Matt Ryan (QB6), Steve Smith (WR21), Eric Decker (WR22), Jordy Nelson (WR23), Le'Veon Bell (RB23), Matthew Stafford (QB7), Torrey Smith (WR24), Mike Wallace (WR25), Robert Griffin III (QB8)

Tier 6: Steve Johnson (WR26), Ryan Mathews (RB24), Colin Kaepernick (QB9), Andrew Luck (QB10), Shane Vereen (RB25), Cecil Shorts (WR27), Vernon Davis (TE5), Russell Wilson (QB11), Greg Jennings (WR28), DeSean Jackson (WR29), Tony Romo (QB12)

Tier 7: Giovani Bernard (RB26), Christopher Ivory (RB27), Ahmad Bradshaw (RB28), James Jones (WR30), Montee Ball (RB29), Mike Williams (WR31), Rashard Mendenhall (RB30), Greg Olsen (TE6), Miles Austin (WR32)

Tier 8: Daryl Richardson (RB31), Ty Hilton (WR33), Eddie Lacy (RB32), Anquan Boldin (WR34), Kyle Rudolph (TE7), Andre Brown (RB33), Kenny Britt (WR35), Eli Manning (QB13), Lance Moore (WR36), Tavon Austin (WR37), Josh Gordon (WR38)

Tier 9: Owen Daniels (TE8), Jermichael Finley (TE9), Jared Cook (TE10), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB34), Kendall Wright (WR39), Brandon Myers (TE11), Michael Floyd (WR40), Emmanuel Sanders (WR41)

Tier 10: Fred Jackson (RB36), Danny Woodhead (RB37), Antonio Gates (TE12), Denarius Moore (WR42), Justin Blackmon (WR43), Golden Tate (WR44), Pierre Thomas (RB39), Brandon Pettigrew (TE14)

Tier 11: Mark Ingram (RB38), Martellus Bennett (TE13), Vick Ballard (RB40), Isaiah Pead (RB41), Ronnie Hillman (RB42), Brian Hartline (WR45), Ben Roethlisberger (QB14), Sidney Rice (WR46), Chris Givens (WR47), Jonathan Stewart (RB43), Bernard Pierce (RB44), Vincent Brown (WR48), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB45), Jordan Cameron (TE15), Ben Tate (RB46), Ryan Broyles (WR49), DeAndre Hopkins (WR50)

Tier 12: Andy Dalton (QB15), Bryce Brown (RB47), Jay Cutler (QB16), Alshon Jeffery (WR51), Fred Davis (TE16)

Tier 13: Johnathan Franklin (RB48), Josh Freeman (QB17), Dustin Keller (TE17), Rueben Randle (WR52), Mikel Leshoure (RB49), Carson Palmer (QB18), Sam Bradford (QB19), Joe Flacco (QB20), Jermaine Gresham (TE18), Greg Little (WR53), Robert Housler (TE19), Malcom Floyd (WR54), Michael Vick (QB21), Marcel Reece (RB50), Joique Bell (RB51)

Tier 14: Seattle Seahawks (DST1), Aaron Dobson (WR55), Philip Rivers (QB22), Brandon LaFell (WR56), Ryan Tannehill (QB23), Matt Schaub (QB24), Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR57), Tyler Eifert (TE20), Shonn Greene (RB52), Rod Streater (WR58), Coby Fleener (TE21), Ed Dickson (TE22), Zac Stacy (RB53), Dwayne Allen (TE23), Heath Miller (TE24)

0.5 point PPR

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson (RB1), Doug Martin (RB2), Arian Foster (RB3), Jamaal Charles (RB4), C.J. Spiller (RB5), Calvin Johnson (WR1), Ray Rice (RB6), LeSean McCoy (RB7), Trent Richardson (RB8)

Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch (RB9), A.J. Green (WR2), Dez Bryant (WR3), Brandon Marshall (WR4), Jimmy Graham (TE1), Matt Forte (RB10), Alfred Morris (RB11), Julio Jones (WR5), Steven Jackson (RB12), Demaryius Thomas (WR6)

Tier 3: Aaron Rodgers (QB1), Drew Brees (QB2), Larry Fitzgerald (WR7), Chris Johnson (RB13), Andre Johnson (WR8), Roddy White (WR9), Randall Cobb (WR10), Maurice Jones-Drew (RB14), Victor Cruz (WR11), Reggie Bush (RB15), Stevan Ridley (RB16)

Tier 4: Vincent Jackson (WR12), Peyton Manning (QB3), Darren Sproles (RB17), Cam Newton (QB4), Marques Colston (WR13), DeMarco Murray (RB18), Reggie Wayne (WR14), Lamar Miller (RB19), Dwayne Bowe (WR15), Darren McFadden (RB20), Frank Gore (RB21)

Tier 5: Danny Amendola (WR16), Jason Witten (TE2), David Wilson (RB22), Wes Welker (WR17), Rob Gronkowski (TE3), Hakeem Nicks (WR18), Tom Brady (QB5), Matt Ryan (QB6)

Tier 6: Antonio Brown (WR19), Jordy Nelson (WR20), Tony Gonzalez (TE4), Le'Veon Bell (RB23), Pierre Garcon (WR21), Eric Decker (WR22), Matthew Stafford (QB7), Torrey Smith (WR23), Steve Smith (WR24), Robert Griffin III (QB8), Mike Wallace (WR25)

Tier 7: Colin Kaepernick (QB9), Andrew Luck (QB10), Vernon Davis (TE5), Ryan Mathews (RB24), Christopher Ivory (RB25), Russell Wilson (QB11), Cecil Shorts (WR26), Montee Ball (RB26), Steve Johnson (WR27), Tony Romo (QB12), James Jones (WR28), Ahmad Bradshaw (RB27)

Tier 8: Shane Vereen (RB28), Giovani Bernard (RB29), Greg Jennings (WR29), DeSean Jackson (WR30), Eddie Lacy (RB30), Rashard Mendenhall (RB31), Mike Williams (WR31), Greg Olsen (TE6), Miles Austin (WR32)

Tier 9: Ty Hilton (WR33), Andre Brown (RB32), Kyle Rudolph (TE7), Daryl Richardson (RB33), Kenny Britt (WR34), Anquan Boldin (WR35), Tavon Austin (WR36), Eli Manning (QB13), Lance Moore (WR37), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB34), Josh Gordon (WR38)

Tier 10: Owen Daniels (TE8), DeAngelo Williams (RB35), Danario Alexander (WR39), Jared Cook (TE9), Mark Ingram (RB36)

Tier 11: Jermichael Finley (TE10), Michael Floyd (WR40), Denarius Moore (WR41), Fred Jackson (RB37), Antonio Gates (TE11), Kendall Wright (WR42), Emmanuel Sanders (WR43), Jonathan Stewart (RB38), Brandon Myers (TE12), Vick Ballard (RB39), Ronnie Hillman (RB40), Golden Tate (WR44), Danny Woodhead (RB41), Pierre Thomas (RB42), Martellus Bennett (TE13), Bernard Pierce (RB43), Bryce Brown (RB44), Ben Tate (RB45), Ben Roethlisberger (QB14), Justin Blackmon (WR45), Isaiah Pead (RB46), Sidney Rice (WR47)

Tier 12: Vincent Brown (WR48), Chris Givens (WR49), Andy Dalton (QB15), DeAndre Hopkins (WR50), Brandon Pettigrew (TE14), Brian Hartline (WR51), Jacquizz Rodgers (RB47), Ryan Broyles (WR52), Johnathan Franklin (RB48), Alshon Jeffery (WR53), Mikel Leshoure (RB49), Jay Cutler (QB16), Jordan Cameron (TE15)

Tier 13: Fred Davis (TE16), Michael Vick (QB17), Josh Freeman (QB18), Joe Flacco (QB19), Rueben Randle (WR54), Malcom Floyd (WR55)

Tier 14: Dennis Pitta (TE17), Sam Bradford (QB20), Aaron Dobson (WR56), Philip Rivers (QB21), Jermaine Gresham (TE18), Carson Palmer (QB22), Seattle Seahawks (DST1), Zac Stacy (RB50), Greg Little (WR57)

Tier 15: Shonn Greene (RB51), Dustin Keller (TE19), Robert Housler (TE20), Joique Bell (RB52), Joseph Morgan (WR58), Matt Schaub (QB23), Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR59), Brandon LaFell (WR60), Ryan Williams (RB53), Bilal Powell (RB54), Ryan Tannehill (QB24), Marcel Reece (RB55)

Don't forget to follow me on twitter for week-to-week updates through out the season.

PPR draft tiers and clustering algorithms

As promised, here is my analysis for PPR leagues. To summarize my model, I take the average ranking from all 37 experts with updated rankings from fantasypros' PPR list, plot them in one dimensional space, and using a gaussian mixture model clustering algorithm to determine natural tiers of players.  The result is well defined tiers and beautiful visualizations.

This analysis is for 1 point PPR leagues.  I've had requests for 0.5 point PPR as well, but unfortunately, there's no data available for that. If you are so inclined, just average these results with my other ones for a good approxmation.  This is becoming a popular request, so I'll play with the data and see if I can come up with anything post worthy.

Quarterbacks remained unchanged, so for QB's, I refer you to my previous post.

PPR Running Backs:

Here is the vertical plot of RB's:

Already we can see very similar structure to the standard format.  David Wilson, who is ranked RB22, represents a significant drop off.  Keep this in mind when drafting.  If you don't see why, consider the following:

In a 12 player league, at least two teams will get left out with their RB2 outside this tier. At least four teams will get left out in a 14 player league. However, in a 10 player league, unless a few people get trigger happy with RB's, there are enough for everyone's RB1 and RB2. Based on this, I'm not convinced the "go ham on RB's" advice is as urgent for smaller leagues, as you can still get two RB's better than Wilson.

Here we illustrate the variance of each players rank with the grey bars.  As you can see, in PPR the first 22 RB's are fairly linear, that is, there does not appear to a heavy tier structure as there was in standard format.

This changes once we get to RB23 to RB35 territory.  The natural tier structure emerges and you can begin to safely tier players together: Mathews/Bell, Ivory/Bradshaw/Vareen/Ball, etc.

You can see the variance blows up at Daryl Richardson (RB34) and later (translation: disagreement among experts).  Therefore, Green-Ellis, who is RB33, is probably the last RB I would fight for. Beyond him I would recommend using your gut feeling or your hunch sleeper.

The PPR RB tier list (underlines represent larger drop offs):

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin
Tier 2: Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, C.J. Spiller, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy
Tier 3: Trent Richardson
Tier 4: Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte
Tier 5: Steven Jackson, Darren Sproles, Alfred Morris, Reggie Bush, Chris Johnson
Tier 6: Maurice Jones-Drew, DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden
Tier 7: Lamar Miller, Stevan Ridley
Tier 8: Frank Gore, David Wilson
Tier 9: Ryan Mathews, Le'Veon Bell
Tier 10: Christopher Ivory, Ahmad Bradshaw, Shane Vereen, Montee Ball
Tier 11: Giovani Bernard, Rashard Mendenhall
Tier 12: Andre Brown, Eddie Lacy, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Tier 13: Daryl Richardson, Fred Jackson, Isaiah Pead, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram
Tier 14: DeAngelo Williams, Danny Woodhead, Vick Ballard, Jacquizz Rodgers
Tier 16: Bryce Brown, Ronnie Hillman, Ben Tate, Bernard Pierce, Mikel Leshoure, Johnathan Franklin
Tier 17: Marcel Reece

PPR Wide Receivers:

At a glance of the one dimensional vertical plot, things in PPR look similar to standard.

Let's take closer look:

You can see how well defined tiers 1, 2, 3, and 4 are (up to Victor Cruz, WR11).  This should help solidify your first few rounds of picks. Other drop offs occur after Antonio Brown, Torrey Smith, James Jones, and Tavon Austin/Kendall Wright.

Here is my PPR WR tier list:

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson
Tier 2: Brandon Marshall, A.J. Green, Dez Bryant
Tier 3: Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas
Tier 4: Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Randall Cobb, Victor Cruz
Tier 5: Reggie Wayne, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Danny Amendola, Wes Welker
Tier 6: Jordy Nelson, Hakeem Nicks
Tier 7: Antonio Brown
Tier 8: Steve Smith, Pierre Garcon, Eric Decker, Mike Wallace
Tier 9: Steve Johnson, Torrey Smith
Tier 10: Greg Jennings, Cecil Shorts, James Jones
Tier 11: Miles Austin, DeSean Jackson, Mike Williams
Tier 12: Anquan Boldin, Ty Hilton, Kenny Britt, Lance Moore, Josh Gordon, Danario Alexander, Tavon Austin
Tier 13: Kendall Wright
Tier 14: Michael Floyd, Emmanuel Sanders, Denarius Moore, Justin Blackmon
Tier 15: Sidney Rice, Brian Hartline
Tier 16: Golden Tate, Chris Givens, Ryan Broyles, Alshon Jeffery

PPR Tight Ends:

A big change from non-PPR is that Witten leads the tier 2 pack.  You can also see that tier 3 (Davis/Olsen/Rudolph) and tier 4 (Daniels/Finley/Cook/Myers) are much closer together than they were in standard format.  So don't feel too bad if you miss out on a tier 3 TE. That said, if you can grab Gonzalez or better, you probably don't need to draft a back up TE.

Here is my PPR TE tier list:

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham,
Tier 2: Jason Witten, Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez
Tier 3: Vernon Davis, Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph
Tier 4: Owen Daniels, Jermichael Finley, Jared Cook, Brandon Myers
Tier 5: Martellus Bennett, Antonio Gates, Brandon Pettigrew
Tier 6: Jordan Cameron, Fred Davis, Jermaine Gresham, Dustin Keller, Ed Dickson
Tier 7: Robert Housler, Heath Miller, Dwayne Allen, Tyler Eifert, Coby Fleener

Good luck drafting! You can follow me on twitter, as I'll post tier lists from week-to-week to offer insight on choosing starters.  Also, expect updates as the preseason unfolds.

Pre-draft tiers (via clustering on 59 expert rankings)

Quarter Backs:

My model for tiering QB's is simple.  I take the average rankings of 59 experts provided by fantasypros, plot them in one-dimenstional space, and apply a gaussian mixture model clustering algorithm to discover the natural tiers.  This is what you get:

The first thing I noticed was the substantial drop off after Tony Romo, who is the #12 QB.  This partially why people are advocating delaying your QB pick this year -- because in a 12 man league, even if you have the worst starting QB in your league (Romo), you're not that far behind.

If you are in a 14+ person or 2 QB league, you might want to think twice before passing on Romo for Eli Manning or Roethlisberger. Let's zoom in and take a closer look at the top 12.

The grey bars are the standard deviations for each player.  You could call Stafford a better pick than RG3 or Kaepernick, sure. But given how close they are, I would argue that there is enough variance between QB7-QB12 that if you don't get Ryan or better, it may be wiser to fill out the rest of your team first, knowing that you can still start Romo.

Here is my QB tier list.  I've underlined tiers with significant drop offs.

Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees
Tier 2: Peyton Manning, Cam Newton
Tier 3: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan
Tier 4: Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo
Tier 5: Eli Manning
Tier 6: Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton
Tier 7: Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Philip Rivers
Tier 8: Michael Vick, Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, Matt Schaub, Ryan Tannehill
Tier 9: Alex Smith
, Jake Locker, Brandon Weeden, E.J. Manuel, Christian Ponder, Matt Flynn, Geno Smith, Nick Foles, Chad Henne

Wide Receivers:

Let's apply the same thing to WR's.  I've updated both my WR and RB tier lists with this model, which I like better because it doesn't depend on the number of teams in your league.  I'll save this discussion for another time, but models that do that (such as value based drafting) are quite sensitive to the depth of the league and you should be careful if your league is not the same depth .

You can see some visible drop offs here: Thomas-Fitzgerald, Jackson-Colston, Smith-Shorts. Smith is WR25, so there are just enough wideouts to go around for everyone's first and second slots. If you're in a 10 man league, half the teams will have all 3 WR's better than Smith. Let's look closer at the top 25:Yet another confirmation of the "Calvin Johnson is his own tier" theory.  The Fitzgerald drop off is understandable as there are lots of question around his talent with his new QB. So is the Colson drop off, as he's never been in true WR1 territory with Jimmy Graham around.  Jackson is conveniently ranked at WR12, so take note if anyone manages to grab two wide outs at his tier or better.

It is interesting to see that the algorithm found Amendola and Welker together -- both similar style receivers with new teams, so there is no way to tell which will be better. Math works!The middle tiers are interesting.  If you don't manage to grab Boldin or Lance Moore (who are WR38 and WR39), you're in for a long ride with Oakland's Denarius Moore.

As you can see, Percy Harvin and Jeremy Maclin are off the charts right now, understandably.  But even if we remove them, WR54 and higher is a noisy mess.  Qualitative arguments and inside scoops are probably better here for picking sleepers.  I refer you to the actual experts on this matter.

Here is the WR tier list:

Tier 1: Calvin Johnson
Tier 2: A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas
Tier 3: Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Andre Johnson, Randall Cobb, Victor Cruz, Vincent Jackson
Tier 4: Marques Colston, Jordy Nelson
Tier 5: Dwayne Bowe, Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks
Tier 6: Danny Amendola, Wes Welker
Tier 7: Torrey Smith, Eric Decker, Antonio Brown, Pierre Garcon, Mike Wallace, Steve Smith
Tier 8: Cecil Shorts, James Jones, Steve Johnson, Greg Jennings
Tier 9: Danario Alexander, DeSean Jackson, Mike Williams, Miles Austin, Ty Hilton
Tier 10: Josh Gordon, Tavon Austin, Kenny Britt
Tier 11: Anquan Boldin, Lance Moore
Tier 12: Denarius Moore, Sidney Rice
Tier 13: Emmanuel Sanders, Kendall Wright, Justin Blackmon, Michael Floyd
Tier 14: Chris Givens, Alshon Jeffery, DeAndre Hopkins, Brian Hartline, Golden Tate
Tier 15: Vincent Brown, Ryan Broyles, Aaron Dobson
Tier 16: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Rueben Randle, Malcom Floyd, Cordarrelle Patterson, Greg Little, Brandon LaFell, Santonio Holmes
Tier 17: Andre Roberts, Rod Streater, Mohamed Sanu, Jeremy Kerley, Julian Edelman, Brandon Lloyd
Tier 18: Brian Quick, Jacoby Jones, Robert Woods, Nate Burleson, A.J. Jenkins, Stephen Hill, Joseph Morgan, Jon Baldwin
Tier 19: Keenan Allen, Santana Moss, Riley Cooper
Tier 20: Markus Wheaton, Nate Washington, Davone Bess, Donnie Avery, Michael Crabtree

Running Backs:

Here's the vertical plot of running backs:

As you can see, you're probably going to want two RB's above Davis Wilson, who is RB21 on the list. That means in a 12 team league, 3 teams will have to settle for Bell or worse.

The first substantial gap come before Matt Forte.  This isn't surprising as Forte is the highest RB1 that loses significant fantasy points to his backup.

Take note of the drop offs after Morris (RB10), Jackson (RB12) and MJD (RB15).  This begs the question, at which point should you go RB-RB with your top two picks? Obviously there is no correct answer as you need to consider other positions as well.  A big factor will be if Richardson/Morris or better falls.  Another factor is if you can get Demarius Thomas or better in the second round, since there are only 6 tier 2+ wide outs.

Around RB17-RB21 (Reggie Bush to David Wilson), you can see the variance begins to grow. Certainly don't feel bad about taking Miller over Murray or Wilson over McFadden if you've have bad experiences with them in the past.The distance spanning Bell to Green-Ellis (RB22 to RB32) is large.  See the vertical plot if you don't believe me. That means there's going to be significant differences in each teams RB3. The sooner you can get yours the better.

For deeper leagues, you can use the this late rank RB chart to help you: 

Tier 1: Adrian Peterson
Tier 2: Doug Martin, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles
Tier 3: C.J. Spiller, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Trent Richardson
Tier 4: Alfred Morris
Tier 5: Matt Forte, Steven Jackson
Tier 6: Stevan Ridley, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew
Tier 7: Frank Gore, Reggie Bush, DeMarco Murray, Lamar Miller, Darren McFadden, David Wilson
Tier 8: Le'Veon Bell, Darren Sproles
Tier 9: Christopher Ivory, Montee Ball
Tier 10: Ryan Mathews, Ahmad Bradshaw
Tier 11: Eddie Lacy, Rashard Mendenhall, Giovani Bernard, Shane Vereen
Tier 12: Andre Brown, BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Tier 13: Mark Ingram, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart
Tier 14: Bernard Pierce, Bryce Brown, Fred Jackson, Daryl Richardson, Vick Ballard, Ben Tate, Isaiah Pead
Tier 15: Ronnie Hillman, Johnathan Franklin, Pierre Thomas, Mikel Leshoure, Danny Woodhead
Tier 16: Zac Stacy, Jacquizz Rodgers, Shonn Greene, Ryan Williams
Tier 17: Michael Bush, Knowshon Moreno
Tier 18: Marcel Reece, Mike Goodson, Bilal Powell, Joseph Randle, LaMichael James, Joique Bell
Tier 19: Daniel Thomas, Robert Turbin, Kendall Hunter, Jonathan Dwyer

Tight Ends:

For tight ends, most of what is here is already known.Graham occupies tier 1 by a wide margin... no surprises.  The top 5 tight ends (Graham, Gronk, Witten, Gonzalez, Davis) are probably worth fighting for.  If you don't manage to get Rudolph (TE7) or better, I would recommend postponing your TE pick until much later.

Tier 1: Jimmy Graham
Tier 2: Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez, Vernon Davis
Tier 3: Greg Olsen, Kyle Rudolph
Tier 4: Owen Daniels, Jared Cook, Antonio Gates, Martellus Bennett, Jermichael Finley, Brandon Myers
Tier 5: Brandon Pettigrew, Jermaine Gresham, Fred Davis, Jordan Cameron
Tier 6: Robert Housler, Ed Dickson, Dustin Keller
Tier 7: Heath Miller, Dwayne Allen, Tyler Eifert, Coby Fleener

Don't forget to follow me on twitter to catch my PPR list, and I'll also tweet my week-to-week tier lists as they become available.